Tuesday, December 29, 2009

NFL Week 17 - Playoff Scenarios of Insanity!

I received my holiday wish - for the Baltimore Ravens and Denver Broncos to lose creating insane playoff scenarios in the AFC! SEVEN AFC teams are still alive for the final two spots, including two 7-8 teams! I think my favorite part of the whole thing is the fact that because of the plurality of teams... the Denver Broncos have TEN ways that they can qualify! TEN! I don't ever remember seeing a team w/ that many combinations for reaching the playoffs. To make sure that years from now I can look this up, I'm going to place all 10 scenarios here along with my arbitrary estimated odds of happening. Also note, that some scenarios aren't even dependent on the Broncos winning or losing!:
  • 1) 15% chance - a win (vs. Kansas City) and a N.Y. Jets loss loss or tie (vs. Cincinnati) and a Baltimore loss or tie (vs. Oakland) OR
  • 2) 25% chance - a win and a N.Y. Jets loss or tie and a Pittsburgh loss or tie (vs. Miami) OR
  • 3) 25% chance - a win and a N.Y. Jets loss or tie and a Houston win (vs. New England) OR
  • 4) 10% chance - a win and a Baltimore loss or tie and a Pittsburgh loss or tie OR
  • 5) 5% chance - a win and a Baltimore loss or tie and a Houston win OR
  • 6) 1% chance - a Pittsburgh loss and a Baltimore loss and a Houston loss and a Jacksonville loss (vs. Cleveland) OR
  • 7) 3% chance - a Pittsburgh loss and a Baltimore loss and a Houston loss and a N.Y. Jets loss OR
  • 8) 2% chance - Pittsburgh loss and a Baltimore loss and a Jacksonville loss and a N.Y. Jets loss OR
  • 9) 12% chance - Pittsburgh loss and a Houston loss and a Jacksonville loss and a N.Y. Jets loss OR
  • 10) 1% chance - Miami loss or tie (vs. Pittsburgh) and a N.Y. Jets loss and a Baltimore loss and a Houston loss and a Jacksonville loss or tie

For some reason, the Broncos are currently in 5th, but would lose if Baltimore and the Jets both win. Basically, the Ravens and Jets control their own destinies.

Manwich Matchup of the Week

Philly @ Dallas - Winner gets the division. Loser gets the wildcard. There's also a strong possibility of these two teams having to play each other again next weekend. Eesh. Philly lost their center to a torn ACL, so I'm guessing that will become a problem.
Pick: Dallas

Upset of the Week
Cincy @ Jets - I know the Jets just need to win to get in. However, I'm pretty certain the Ravens are going to beat the Raiders for one playoff spot, and things would be dull and boring if the Jets also won.
Pick: Bungals
(Note: As I'm typing this, the jets are a whopping 10 point favorite!; The Bengals could still earn the #3 seed as opposed to the #4 seed)

Opening Round Playoff Game #18
Teams that have been eliminated: Cincy (against Denver in week 1)!, St. Louis, Washington, Buffalo (twice), Jacksonville, Tampa, Oakland, Detroit, San Fran, Atlanta (twice), Pittsburgh, Giants, Miami (twice), and now Baltimore:
Pittsburgh @ Miami - Both teams are on the ropes. Hell, both teams need help to even reach the playoffs. I don't understand how Pittsburgh could play so awful for a month before knocking off Green Bay and Baltimore. Miami seems to be riddled w/ injuries though...
Pick: Pittsburgh

Fantasy Football Season is Over. Congrats to the Champions!

Other Games
Green Bay @ Arizona - How bizarre... these two teams could also end up playing each other next week as well. Arizona still has an outside chance at a #2 seed. Something tells me both teams just take it easy this week.
Pick: Arizona
Indy @ Buffalo - Pick: Indy ( I think the backups will do okay this time)
New Orleans @ CAR - Pick: CAR (the Saints already have homefield and nothing to play for)
Jacksonville @ Cleveland - Pick: Jacksonville
Chicago @ Detroit - Pick: Chicago
New England @ Houston - Pick: Houston (I'm very torn on this game... but Houston would have to win to give the Bengals something to play for in the night game, as far as I understand... and I've missed every Houston game this year, but it seems like they should win this game, in what is the biggest home game since they became the Texans).
Giants @ Minny - Pick: Minny (Minny needs to win to get a bye)
San Fran @ St. Louis - Pick: San Fran
ATL @ Tampa - Pick: Tampa
KC @ Denver - Pick: Denver (Denver has an easy game... but will they hit one of their 10 scenarios???)
Baltimore @ Oakland - Pick: Baltimore (I'm calling it my "lock" of the week!)
Washington @ San Diego - Pick: San Diego
Tennessee @ Seattle - Pick: Tennessee

Under these picks... the Ravens and the Broncos (under scenario #3) will make the playoffs!

Last Week: 10-6
Season: 155-85
Manwich: 9-7 (Eagles beat the broncos)
Upset of the Week: 8-8 (The Colts benched their players to say "screw you undefeated record!")


NBA games of the Week-
last week's "Games of the Week" - The Nuggets beat the Hawks by 20 with 41 pts from JR Smith on TEN three-pointers; The Celtics beat the Magic by outrebounding them and holding the Magic to 33% from the field; The Cavs were clicking on all cylinders as they beat the Lakers by 15 (and got under the Lakers skin as well as they committed multiple technical fouls); the Blazers beat the Nuggets behind 41 pts from Brandon Roy and Juwan Howard starting at center (yes, both Blazers centers have now ruptured their patella tendons); the Cavs beat the Hawks behind a superior rebounding advantage, the defense of Delonte West, and the hot shooting of Mo, Z and Delonte.

This week...
ATL @ Cleveland - 12/30
Boston @ Phoenix - 12/30
Dallas @ Lakers - 1/3
Houston @ Lakers - 1/5

4 comments:

Mighty Mike said...

Last week of the season is hard to predict but I'm going with Philly over Dallas, New England over Houston and Denver not hitting the scenarios - which I still can't fully follow...

Gutsy Goldberg said...

So... that means that under Mighty's predictions (Jets lose, Ravens win, Houston loses), then that means that the Pittsburgh Steelers make the playoffs!

"a win (vs. Miami) and a Houston loss or tie (vs. New England) and a N.Y. Jets loss or tie "
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standings/playoffrace/scenarios

Good job Mighty, now everyone in the AFC North gets to party (other than the Browns).

Hitman said...

Gutsy, you have the Ravens and Jets both winning...which means the Broncos are left out. Right?

Gutsy Goldberg said...

As usual... I typo'd. I meant to pick Cincy, but I put down the Jets by accident.
So.. I have the Ravens winning, the Jets losing, and the Broncos winning and entering the playoff field.