Tuesday, December 01, 2009

Week 13: College Football Trend Watching

With one week left trends are less important than actual outcomes with this week in championships. 5 out of the 6 BCS titles will be decided and 9 out of 10 BCS spots. So what do we know, what do we think we know, and what are we stabbing in the dark.

What We Know
Oregon State v. Oregon (Thursday 9) The Civil War - Winner goes to the Rose Bowl...loser either Holiday Bowl or the Sun Bowl.

Georgia Tech v. Clemson (Saturday 8) Winner goes to the Orange Bowl...loser goes to Champs Sunday Brunch Buffet

What we Think we Know
Alabama v. Florida (4pm Saturday) - Winner goes to the BCS Championship. Loser probably goes to the Sugar Bowl (depending on Big 12 Game). If your sure of who wins this game please contact your local bookie.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (noon Saturday) - The Big East has no tie in to any bowl so its unclear where the winner goes. Most likely its the Sugar Bowl v. SEC #2 but it could be the BCS Championship (depending on Big 12 Game) or potentially the Fiesta Bowl. If Cinci loses they might still get an at large spot but most likely will be headed to the Gator Bowl. No history of traveling, small fan base, and the conference gets bad tv ratings. If Pitt loses they can get a gift certificate to Meinke.

Stabbing in the Dark
Nebraska v. Texas (Saturday 8) If Texas wins then it's pretty easy to figure out..Texas v SEC for BCS Championship, Nebraska to the Holiday. If Texas loses well then its chaos. Nebraska would go the Fiesta Bowl by rule. Texas would probably go to the Orange Bowl. Cinci (assuming they win)or TCU or the SEC #2 could all get a shot at the BCS Championship and your guess is as good as mine who that would be. This would also bump Boise State out of an at large spot.


Bowls to Watch
Fiesta: Assuming Texas wins , the Fiesta Bowl can go one of two ways. If they want the sure thing/ticket revenue they will select Iowa first who will probably face Boise State. If the Fiesta wants to gamble on TV ratings they might pick TCU first and assuming Cinci wins be guaranteed two undefeated teams facing off (either Cinci or Boise State).

Orange: TCU has already beaten Clemson so if Clemson beats G-Tech, the Orange Bowl will probably select a Big 10 team (Penn State or Iowa) to face Clemson (as always for revenue reasons) While Iowa has the better resume don't underestimate that Penn State has a better reputation/Joe Pa which might sway the Orange Bowl to pick them over Iowa.

Bowl Predictions

Theoretically through a series of odd combinations of losses, malaria outbreaks, and travel issues tOSU could still go to the BCS Championship but I'm putting them locked into the Rose Bowl.

BCS Championship: Alabama v. Texas
Orange Bowl : TCU v. G-Tech
Sugar Bowl: Florida v. Cincinnati
Fiesta: Boise State v. Iowa
Rose Bowl: Oregon v. Ohio State

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