1. Really briefly, here are some second-half predictions that I may have forgotten to get to in my last column:
AL/NL East – Red Sox, Mets
AL/NL Central – Indians, Cubs
AL/NL West – Angels, Padres
AL/NL Wild Card – Tigers, Brewers
AL/NL Cy Young – Johan Santana, Twins; Jake Peavy, Padres
AL/NL MVP – Alex Rodriguez, Yankees; Prince Fielder, Brewers
AL/NL RoY – Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles; Hunter Pence, Astros
AL/NL Manager – Mike Scioscia, Angels; Bud Black, Padres
ALDS 1 – Tigers (4) over Red Sox (1) 3-2
ALDS 2 – Angels (2) over Indians (3) 3-1
ALCS – Angels (2) over Tigers (4) 4-2
NLDS 1 – Padres (1) over Brewers (4) 3-1
NLDS 2 – Mets (2) over Cubs (3) 3-0
NLCS – Mets (2) over Padres (1) 4-3
WS – Angels over Mets 4-2
2. Ichiro and the Mariners may be close to signing a five-year, $100M contract. My honest opinion? As good as Ichiro is, at the end of the day, he’s a singles hitter. Sure he’s the face of the M’s and one of the most popular players in the US and Japan but he’s still a singles hitter. If Alfonso Soriano is making an average annual salary of $17M with his combination of speed and power, I don’t see how Seattle can justify paying a guy with 66 career homers a whopping $20M a year. Ichiro surely would’ve been a sought-after free agent this winter but I highly doubt that anyone was going to get up to $20M per year for him. This sets yet another dangerous high-water mark for shortsighted owners who can’t help themselves.
3. Travis Hafner and the Indians have come to an agreement to keep Pronk in Cleveland by offering him a four-year, $57M extension. Now this contract makes much more sense. At $14.25M per year, Hafner will be earning the standard contract offered to the game’s elite sluggers from 2003-2005. Case in point, Albert Pujols (seven years, $100M), Vladimir Guerrero (five years, $70M), David Ortiz (four years, $52M), and Paul Konerko (five years, $60M) all signed similar deals over the past few years. Hafner’s contract highlights two things. First, that the Cubs and Mariners are drastically overpaying for their franchise players, especially given where the market was set for the aforementioned All-Stars and second, that the Indians are demonstrating the appropriate level of fiscal restraint which might – hopefully – help ease the market back to more rational levels. One never knows which owner will be the next dummy to get taken to the cleaners but at least Cleveland is doing their part.
4. The Yankees announced that they will open discussions with A-Rod about a possible contract extension. The main obstacle is that super agent Scott Boras would rather see his prized client hit the free agent market in November, especially if the market values Ichiro as a $20M/season player. At those prices, it’s not inconceivable that A-Rod gets a $30M/season offer from some team desperate to cash in on his talent and the future marketing potential of his ascent up the all-time homerun list. The main issue for the Yanks is to keep A-Rod in New York before he can exercise his opt-out clause. If New York can extent his current contract, they’ll still be eligible to receive the roughly $8M in payments from the Texas Rangers for the next three seasons before the new extension kicks in. If A-Rod opts out, however, then he might still stay in New York but the Yanks would lose the free cash that’s been coming up from Arlington since the start of the 2004 season.
5. Rickey Henderson was named the new Mets hitting coach. Rickey knows a few things about hitting and he certainly knows a lot about stealing bases. Although I don’t put much stock in the work of a hitting coach (can one really tell the difference between a great hitting coach and a terrible one at the MLB level?) I do think Rickey will bring a lot to the table. For starters, he was a teammate of Willie Randolph’s when they hit 1-2 in the Yankees’ lineup from 1985-1989. He will be able to work with Jose Reyes on Reyes’s quest to become the first player with over 100 steals since Vince Coleman swiped 109 bags in 1987. He’s a colorful and engaging personality who loves baseball and every team should have coaches as enthusiastic as a guy like Rickey. He’s a future first-ballot Hall of Famer and the best leadoff hitter of his generation (and perhaps of all time).
6. Finally, I will simply say that Tony LaRussa is an idiot. I don’t care how many wins he has on his resume, I consider him to be a totally overrated manager. Seriously, you’re telling me that Albert Pujols, even in a down year, can’t get off the bench to pinch hit for Aaron Rowand? Bases loaded, tying and winning runs in scoring position, and Rowand gets more trust from LaRussa than Pujols? Explain that one to me, because I’ll never understand it. I would never want LaRussa managing my ballclub. He’s as dumb as he is arrogant.
AL/NL East – Red Sox, Mets
AL/NL Central – Indians, Cubs
AL/NL West – Angels, Padres
AL/NL Wild Card – Tigers, Brewers
AL/NL Cy Young – Johan Santana, Twins; Jake Peavy, Padres
AL/NL MVP – Alex Rodriguez, Yankees; Prince Fielder, Brewers
AL/NL RoY – Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles; Hunter Pence, Astros
AL/NL Manager – Mike Scioscia, Angels; Bud Black, Padres
ALDS 1 – Tigers (4) over Red Sox (1) 3-2
ALDS 2 – Angels (2) over Indians (3) 3-1
ALCS – Angels (2) over Tigers (4) 4-2
NLDS 1 – Padres (1) over Brewers (4) 3-1
NLDS 2 – Mets (2) over Cubs (3) 3-0
NLCS – Mets (2) over Padres (1) 4-3
WS – Angels over Mets 4-2
2. Ichiro and the Mariners may be close to signing a five-year, $100M contract. My honest opinion? As good as Ichiro is, at the end of the day, he’s a singles hitter. Sure he’s the face of the M’s and one of the most popular players in the US and Japan but he’s still a singles hitter. If Alfonso Soriano is making an average annual salary of $17M with his combination of speed and power, I don’t see how Seattle can justify paying a guy with 66 career homers a whopping $20M a year. Ichiro surely would’ve been a sought-after free agent this winter but I highly doubt that anyone was going to get up to $20M per year for him. This sets yet another dangerous high-water mark for shortsighted owners who can’t help themselves.
3. Travis Hafner and the Indians have come to an agreement to keep Pronk in Cleveland by offering him a four-year, $57M extension. Now this contract makes much more sense. At $14.25M per year, Hafner will be earning the standard contract offered to the game’s elite sluggers from 2003-2005. Case in point, Albert Pujols (seven years, $100M), Vladimir Guerrero (five years, $70M), David Ortiz (four years, $52M), and Paul Konerko (five years, $60M) all signed similar deals over the past few years. Hafner’s contract highlights two things. First, that the Cubs and Mariners are drastically overpaying for their franchise players, especially given where the market was set for the aforementioned All-Stars and second, that the Indians are demonstrating the appropriate level of fiscal restraint which might – hopefully – help ease the market back to more rational levels. One never knows which owner will be the next dummy to get taken to the cleaners but at least Cleveland is doing their part.
4. The Yankees announced that they will open discussions with A-Rod about a possible contract extension. The main obstacle is that super agent Scott Boras would rather see his prized client hit the free agent market in November, especially if the market values Ichiro as a $20M/season player. At those prices, it’s not inconceivable that A-Rod gets a $30M/season offer from some team desperate to cash in on his talent and the future marketing potential of his ascent up the all-time homerun list. The main issue for the Yanks is to keep A-Rod in New York before he can exercise his opt-out clause. If New York can extent his current contract, they’ll still be eligible to receive the roughly $8M in payments from the Texas Rangers for the next three seasons before the new extension kicks in. If A-Rod opts out, however, then he might still stay in New York but the Yanks would lose the free cash that’s been coming up from Arlington since the start of the 2004 season.
5. Rickey Henderson was named the new Mets hitting coach. Rickey knows a few things about hitting and he certainly knows a lot about stealing bases. Although I don’t put much stock in the work of a hitting coach (can one really tell the difference between a great hitting coach and a terrible one at the MLB level?) I do think Rickey will bring a lot to the table. For starters, he was a teammate of Willie Randolph’s when they hit 1-2 in the Yankees’ lineup from 1985-1989. He will be able to work with Jose Reyes on Reyes’s quest to become the first player with over 100 steals since Vince Coleman swiped 109 bags in 1987. He’s a colorful and engaging personality who loves baseball and every team should have coaches as enthusiastic as a guy like Rickey. He’s a future first-ballot Hall of Famer and the best leadoff hitter of his generation (and perhaps of all time).
6. Finally, I will simply say that Tony LaRussa is an idiot. I don’t care how many wins he has on his resume, I consider him to be a totally overrated manager. Seriously, you’re telling me that Albert Pujols, even in a down year, can’t get off the bench to pinch hit for Aaron Rowand? Bases loaded, tying and winning runs in scoring position, and Rowand gets more trust from LaRussa than Pujols? Explain that one to me, because I’ll never understand it. I would never want LaRussa managing my ballclub. He’s as dumb as he is arrogant.
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