The Midsummer Classic is here so it’s time to take stock of what we know and don’t know, what we thought we knew, and what we might learn in the coming months. This has been an “interesting” season – that’s tongue-in-cheek for “wow, ballplayers really miss their steroids and their greenies.” Seriously, I’m not seeing a whole lot of inspired or inspiring baseball this year.
In my 2007 NL/AL Previews I kinda struck out, bringing an end to what had been three previous seasons of nearly perfect prognostications. My biggest miscues so far have been the Yankees, Dodgers, Cardinals, and Astros (all of whom suck to varying degrees) and the Brewers, Padres, and Rockies (all of whom are better than I thought).
Hindsight being 20/20, I should’ve known that the Cardinals would suck this year. I mean, really, besides Pujols, that’s just not a big league caliber lineup. The Cards have been playing with fire for several years now, constantly letting talent walk away and trying to get by with fringe players like Preston Wilson (the poster child of a has-been). Ditto the Astros who, despite a deeper-than-average lineup for the NL, have nothing in the way of quality arms behind Roy Oswalt. Losing Pettitte and Clemens in the same off-season was bad enough. But watching Brad Lidge, Dan Wheeler, and Chad Qualls in a three-way race for worst possible closer has cost the Astros countless wins and much-needed confidence. You can’t trust these guys in a close game, not for a second.
I never saw the Yankees at a game under .500 coming into the break. I never saw Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Bobby Abreu, and Mike Mussina underperforming to the extreme levels they have to this point. Based on their runs scored/allowed differential, the Yanks should be a 49-win team right now and still project to finishing the year with a 94-68 record. That might or might not get them into their 13th consecutive postseason but, at this point, I’ll take it over their current 80-82 pace.
I won’t waste too much time on the Dodgers. Suffice it to say that they are great at scouting and developing young talent (Russell Martin, James Loney, Jonathan Broxton, Chad Billingsley) but god-awful at playing the free agency market (Juan Pierre, Jason Schmidt, Rafael Furcal, Luis Gonzalez).
As for the surprises, the Padres have no lineup whatsoever but their pitching staff has been anchored by Cy Young seasons from both Jake Peavy and Chris Young. When your team has given up a major-league low 298 runs, you can have a lineup that is weaker than most little league rosters. The Rockies, I don’t think, will be in the playoff hunt in the end. But I certainly didn’t see them as a .500 team at the break. Good for them, they deserve it.
As for the Brewers, I had them as a 3rd place team in a weak division. I didn’t like their bullpen, I thought their lineup was too young, and their pitching staff seemed like it didn’t have enough depth to withstand injuries. Through the season’s first 90 games, the Brewers are in first place and have the NL’s second-best record. They only project out to an 89-win team but, hey, the Cards won the World Series last year and they won six fewer than that. I still don’t see the Brew-Crew winning the division but I’m tipping my hat to them for a good first half of the year.
On the awards front, I had Roy Oswalt and Johan Santana as the Cy Young winners and Albert Pujols and ARod as MVPs. Oswalt’s having an OK year for a lousy team but he’s got no shot at the Cy, not when his bullpen keeps on blowing wins for him. Johan Santana will have to fight Dan Haren, Josh Beckett, and a few others among Jeremy Bonderman, Erik Bedard, Kelvim Escobar, and CC Sabathia, but I think Johan’s capable of going on a run and ending up with the hardware.
MVP-wise, Pujols has a lot of work to do. ARod’s only problem will be convincing voters to give him his third award in five seasons while playing for a lousy ballclub. As an aside, don’t ask me why I didn’t pick NL and AL Rookie of the Year winners but I appear to have blanked on those. My predictions won’t count, but Hunter Pence (Astros) and Jeremy Guthrie (Orioles) have to be considered the first-half favorites right now.
OK, so this hasn’t been my best year with the picks. At least I was right about Johan Santana, ARod, the Mets, Angels, and Indians. Those three teams are leading their divisions and, in the case of the Angels, they’re looking like a serious World Series contender. We’ll just have to see how the second half plays out. For my sake, I hope the Yanks can pull off another Boston Massacre. It’s not like I’ve got football season to look forward to...
In my 2007 NL/AL Previews I kinda struck out, bringing an end to what had been three previous seasons of nearly perfect prognostications. My biggest miscues so far have been the Yankees, Dodgers, Cardinals, and Astros (all of whom suck to varying degrees) and the Brewers, Padres, and Rockies (all of whom are better than I thought).
Hindsight being 20/20, I should’ve known that the Cardinals would suck this year. I mean, really, besides Pujols, that’s just not a big league caliber lineup. The Cards have been playing with fire for several years now, constantly letting talent walk away and trying to get by with fringe players like Preston Wilson (the poster child of a has-been). Ditto the Astros who, despite a deeper-than-average lineup for the NL, have nothing in the way of quality arms behind Roy Oswalt. Losing Pettitte and Clemens in the same off-season was bad enough. But watching Brad Lidge, Dan Wheeler, and Chad Qualls in a three-way race for worst possible closer has cost the Astros countless wins and much-needed confidence. You can’t trust these guys in a close game, not for a second.
I never saw the Yankees at a game under .500 coming into the break. I never saw Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Bobby Abreu, and Mike Mussina underperforming to the extreme levels they have to this point. Based on their runs scored/allowed differential, the Yanks should be a 49-win team right now and still project to finishing the year with a 94-68 record. That might or might not get them into their 13th consecutive postseason but, at this point, I’ll take it over their current 80-82 pace.
I won’t waste too much time on the Dodgers. Suffice it to say that they are great at scouting and developing young talent (Russell Martin, James Loney, Jonathan Broxton, Chad Billingsley) but god-awful at playing the free agency market (Juan Pierre, Jason Schmidt, Rafael Furcal, Luis Gonzalez).
As for the surprises, the Padres have no lineup whatsoever but their pitching staff has been anchored by Cy Young seasons from both Jake Peavy and Chris Young. When your team has given up a major-league low 298 runs, you can have a lineup that is weaker than most little league rosters. The Rockies, I don’t think, will be in the playoff hunt in the end. But I certainly didn’t see them as a .500 team at the break. Good for them, they deserve it.
As for the Brewers, I had them as a 3rd place team in a weak division. I didn’t like their bullpen, I thought their lineup was too young, and their pitching staff seemed like it didn’t have enough depth to withstand injuries. Through the season’s first 90 games, the Brewers are in first place and have the NL’s second-best record. They only project out to an 89-win team but, hey, the Cards won the World Series last year and they won six fewer than that. I still don’t see the Brew-Crew winning the division but I’m tipping my hat to them for a good first half of the year.
On the awards front, I had Roy Oswalt and Johan Santana as the Cy Young winners and Albert Pujols and ARod as MVPs. Oswalt’s having an OK year for a lousy team but he’s got no shot at the Cy, not when his bullpen keeps on blowing wins for him. Johan Santana will have to fight Dan Haren, Josh Beckett, and a few others among Jeremy Bonderman, Erik Bedard, Kelvim Escobar, and CC Sabathia, but I think Johan’s capable of going on a run and ending up with the hardware.
MVP-wise, Pujols has a lot of work to do. ARod’s only problem will be convincing voters to give him his third award in five seasons while playing for a lousy ballclub. As an aside, don’t ask me why I didn’t pick NL and AL Rookie of the Year winners but I appear to have blanked on those. My predictions won’t count, but Hunter Pence (Astros) and Jeremy Guthrie (Orioles) have to be considered the first-half favorites right now.
OK, so this hasn’t been my best year with the picks. At least I was right about Johan Santana, ARod, the Mets, Angels, and Indians. Those three teams are leading their divisions and, in the case of the Angels, they’re looking like a serious World Series contender. We’ll just have to see how the second half plays out. For my sake, I hope the Yanks can pull off another Boston Massacre. It’s not like I’ve got football season to look forward to...
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