A-10 - Facts, Stats, and Attempted Analysis 2008

The Atlantic 10 was scheduled to get as many as 4 bids, but now it may only be 3, especially since Dayton has lost a whopping 8 of 11 games and Rhode Island now has lost 4 of 5 games (ouch!). The funny thing is – there are still scenarios where the Atlantic 10 gets as many or more bids than the ACC or the Big 10! After my initial look at these teams though, the A-10 could also just have a couple teams getting in, because everyone’s just beating each other up in this conference. FYI - Atlantic 10 is fractions of a point behind the big 6 power conferences and behind the MVC, according to Sagarin's rankings.

Xavier, Sag #9, 1st in conference at 12-1, 24-4
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Kent St., Indiana, Cincy, Kansas St (by 26),
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Miami(OH)!, Arizona St, Tennessee, Temple
3P% - 39.9%, Reb. Margin = +5.9 , FT 76%, FG 47.9%, Opp. FG 40.1% –
Xavier is the one team from the A-10 that we absolutely know will be in the big dance. They have multiple 3-point shooters, play great defense, shoot well from the line and have a healthy rebounding margin by using a lineup with one little man and four other guys who are all over 6-6. A very balanced attack for the Musketeers with 6 guys averaging between 9.9 and 11.6 ppg. Of the six, 4 shoot between 40.4 and 43.2% from 3-point land. So, it’s really unclear how they are going to hurt you. When they beat Indiana, they held Eric Gordon to 4-12 from the field and held Indiana to 38.5% from the field. In that game, CJ Anderson (6-6 g/f, averaging 10.5 ppg, 6.2 reb) and BJ Raymond (6-6 g/f, averaging 10.8 ppg, 42.6% for 3s) were the leading scorers for Xavier. Little known fact: their point guard, Drew Lavender, is only 5-7!

St. Joe’s, Sag #46, 2nd in conference at 8-4, 17-8
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Rhode Island, Penn St., Umass (twice), Villanova,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Gonzaga, Holy Cross, Creighton, Charlotte, La Salle,
3P% - 40.9%, Reb. Margin = +0.7 , FT 71.9%, FG 48.5%, Opp. FG 43.8% –
This team has had an easy schedule and it’s best win to date out-of-conference is Villanova. They don’t rebound well, but if they continue to keep winning in-conference, they’ll get into the tourney. They do have some bizzare losses on it’s schedule, which gives me some concern, but they’ve been playing well against the big teams in conference thus far. The team is led by Pat Calathes, a 6-10 forward, who averages 18.5 ppg, 7.9 reb, and shoots a healthy 44% from 3-point land. They have an efficient 2nd-leading scorer in Ahmad Nivins, a 6-9 forward, who despite only taking 7.5 shots a game, has been shooting 65% from the field to pour in 14.2 ppg, and 5.9 reb.

UMass, Sag #58, 6th in conference at 7-6, 18-9
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Syracuse, Boston Coll, Houston, Rhode Island (twice),
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: N. Iowa, IUPUI, Vanderbilt, St. Joe’s (twice), Fordham
3P% - 34.9%, Reb. Margin = -2.1 , FT 67.2%, FG 44.2%, Opp. FG 43% –
This team is ranked unexpectedly high in the computers, but is really benefitting from beating Rhode Island twice and from Houston playing so well in C-USA. They have 4 guys who do almost the entire scoring output. What’s concerning is that they don’t appear to play defense well in comparison to their own poor shooting and they don’t rebound and they can’t shoot 3s. Nothing to love with these guys. Pick ‘em to lose if they make the tourney. They are led by Gary Forbes, a 6-7 forward, who averages 20.3 ppg and 7.9 reb on only 41% FG. Harris, a 6-2 guard, takes a lot of shots as well and averages 17.7 ppg on only 41% FG. Their best 3-point threat is Etienne Brower, a 6-8 forward, who averages 12.6 ppg, 6.6 reb, and 41.5% 3P%.

Temple, Sag #91, 3rd in conference at 7-5, 14-12 overall
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Ohio, Xavier, Penn
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Tennessee, Villanova, Florida, Duke, Charlotte, Richmond, Fordham
3P% - 36.9%, Reb. Margin = -1.5 , FT 74.1%, FG 46.9%, Opp. FG 43% –
As usual, Temple scheduled a bunch of tough games. Unfortunately, they really didn’t pick up any key victories out of conference, though they did beat Xavier in-conference. At this point, they’ll have to win the A-10 tourney to make it in. Temple has two main guys in Dionte Christmas (Dickie V would love this guy’s name if he makes the tourney) and Mark Tyndale. Christmas, a 6-5 guard, gets 20.2 ppg, 6.4 reb, and shoots tons of 3s (takes 8.5 per game!) and shoots 38.6% from 3-point land, but has more turnovers than assists. Tyndale, a 6-5 guard, gets 16.5 ppg, 6.7 reb, and 3.9 assists, but 3.3 turnovers.

Rhode Island, Sag #50, 8th in conference at 6-7, 20-8 overall
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: UAB, Syracuse, Providence
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Boston College, Dayton, St. Louis, Temple
3P% - 38.9%, Reb. Margin = +2.8 , FT 69.3%, FG 47.5%, Opp. FG 43.3% –
They started out at 14-1 with a soft non-conference schedule, and have just gotten flattend of late in the A-10. This team is an enigma in my mind. Their leading scorer is Will Daniels a 6-8 forward who shoots a poor 36.6% from 3-point land, but 51% from the field with 19 ppg, 6.7 reb. Their next 2 leading scorers, Baron and Bitee (both 6-2 guards) shoot 41.9% and 52.8% from 3-point land.

Dayton, Sag #71, 12th in conference at 5-8, 17-9 overall
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Louisville, Pitt, Miami (OH),
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: George Mason, Richmond, Duquesne, La Salle
3P% - 37.3%, Reb. Margin = +5.1 , FT 64.1%, FG 47.1%, Opp. FG 43.0% –
Like Rhode Island, they started out at 12-1, and they really have run into problems despite solid non-conference victories over Louisville and Pitt. They are led by Brian Roberts, a 6-2 guard, who averages 19.3 ppg, 3.7 assists, and 45% from 3-point land. Their next 5 guys all average between 6 and 10 ppg, so Brian Roberts does not have much help. They are missing 2nd leading scorer and their leading rebounder, Chris Wright, a 6-8 freshman forward, who has a fractured bone in his ankle. Without him Dayton is 4-8. They still aren’t sure if he’s coming back or not.