ACC - Facts, Stats, and Attempted Analysis 2008

I originally thought the ACC conference was highly ranked this season and primed for success. But after looking through the teams, it’s really just Duke and UNC and then a whole bunch of questionable teams. They may only get 4 bids. Even then, that would require both Clemson and Maryland to continue to rack up wins. 5 bids??? Someone else would have to spring an upset.

Duke, Sag #1, 1st in conference at 10-0,
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Marquette, Wisconsin, UNC
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Pitt (their only loss)
3P% - 39.3%, Reb. Margin = +1.0 , FT 68.8%, FG 47.8%, Opp. FG 42.9% –
This is a small-ball Duke team that actually played great interior defense against UNC in their biggest test of the season. I think the 1-point loss to Pitt in OT is just an example of how a small-ball team can get destroyed on the boards (49-31) and end up losing to a less-talented team. DeMarcus Nelson (15.3) and Kyle Singer (14.3) lead the team in scoring and both shoot around 40% for three. Obviously, this is a dangerous team but I don’t see how they could win the whole tournament with virtually no inside presence. This would require playing 6 near-perfect games, which isn’t going to happen.

UNC, Sag #4, 2nd in conference at 9-2,
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Ohio St., Kent St., Kentucky (not a tough sched)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Maryland, Duke (their only losses)
3P% - 36.2%, Reb. Margin = +11.4 , FT 75.7%, FG 47.9%, Opp. FG 42.3% –
Super-talented, this team should be a contender. They’ve got Tyler Hansborough (22.8 ppg, 10.6 reb) and a couple of sweet guards in Wayne Ellington (16.6 ppg, 39.8% 3p) and Ty Lawson (13.6ppg, 5.7 assists). The Tar Heels are a bit banged up at the moment, but if Lawson can get back to 100% for March they should be a dangerous team.

Clemson, Sag #23, 3rd in conference at 7-4,
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Purdue (before they were good), Alabama, Miss St. Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Ole Miss, Charlotte, Miami(FL)
3P% - 39.7%, Reb. Margin = +4.5 , FT 63%, FG 46.7%, Opp. FG 43.1% –
These guys have been choke artists the last two seasons, starting out the season real hot then losing tons of ACC games. They’ve been stuck in the NIT the last seasons, and this year it looks like they finally could make the big dance. Fact I didn’t know: Rick Barnes (texas) was their last coach to take them to the NCAA Tourney (back in 1997). Their best player is KC Rivers, a 6-5 G/F who averages 15.6 ppg, 6.8 reb, and shoots a blistering 43.6% from 3-point land. Actually, 3 of their top 4 scorers all shoot 3s and shoot over 41%. They beat Purdue early on but this was way before Purdue found its current rotation of freshmen and sophomores.

Maryland, Sag #52, 3rd in conference at 7-4,
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Illinois, UNC
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: UCLA, Missouri, VCU, OHIO UNIVERSITY (BOBCATS), AMERICAN
3P% - 33.3%, Reb. Margin = +2.7 , FT 71.3%, FG 46.1%, Opp. FG 38.5% –
These guys went through a real rough period in out-of-conference play, suffering home losses to Ohio University (bobcats) and American. Plus, they also lost to VCU (the team that beat Duke in the tourney last year) as well as Missouri. They’ve been playing much better in the ACC season, including a victory over UNC. However, these guys scare me with their inconsistency and they absolutely burned me last year in the tourney by losing to Butler in the 2nd round. Maybe they’ll have some revenge going on this year. Their best player this year is a 6-5 guard, General Greivis Vasquez, who average 17.3ppg, 6.8 assists, and 4.3 turnovers (yowsers). They still have a big front line in two 6-8 forwards, Gist (16.1ppg, 7.9 reb, 2.3 blocks) and Osby (11.8 ppg, 7 reb, 2.3 blocks).

Wake Forest, Sag #66, 5th in conference at 5-5,
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Iowa, BYU, So. Florida
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Charlotte, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Boston College (by 30?!?)
3P% - 32.0%, Reb. Margin = +0.6 , FT 66.3%, FG 43.6%, Opp. FG 42.0% –
These guys really stink in terms of schedule and in terms of statistics and I refuse to waste any more time with them.

NC State, Sag #82, 9th in conference at 4-7,
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Villanova, Cincy, S. Carolina
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: New Orleans (not the hornets), East Carolina, Mich. St., Georgia Tech
3P% - 34.6%, Reb. Margin = -0.9 , FT 70.4%, FG 45.9%, Opp. FG 42.1% –
These guys really stink in terms of schedule and in terms of statistics and I refuse to waste any more time with them.

Miami (FL), Sag #44, 10th in conference at 3-6,
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: VCU, Miss St., Providence, Clemson
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Winthrop, Boston Coll, Wake,
3P% - 39.2%, Reb. Margin = +4.9 , FT 72.5%, FG 44.0%, Opp. FG 40.3% –
These guys started 12-0 with a relatively easy schedule, lost to Winthrop, and then suddenly stunk it up in ACC season. Obviously, they need to rack up a bunch of more ACC wins because I think its really hard to get into the tourney (if not impossible) if they finish well below .500 in their conference. They have some decent wins, so their profile seems better than the teams ahead of them. They have a relatively balanced attack but their best 2 players appear to be guards Jack McClinton (15.9ppg, 43.5% 3P%), and James Dews (10.8ppg, 40.4% 3p%).