ACC - look out for a dangerous Georgia Tech team w/ two NBA 1st ronders... Maryland is relying on one guy and has more wins than they deserve...
Duke, Sag #3, kenpom offense #1, kenpom defense #3, 1st in conference at 12-2, 25-4
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: UConn, Gonzaga, Clemson (twice), Maryland
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Wisconsin, Geo Tech (split), NC St, Georgetown
3P% - 39.1%, Reb. Margin = +6.2, FT 75.9%, FG 44.4%, Opp. FG 40.3% –
Jon Scheyer (6'5" senior - 18.8ppg, 5.3 assists, 3.4 rebs, 40.9 3p%); Nolan Smith (6'2" junio - 17.4ppg, 41% 3p%), Kyle Singler (6'8" junior - 17.1 ppg, 7.0rebs, 38.6% 3p%). They have three superb 3-point shooters. Surprisingly, they don't play great defense, though it is adequate. Also surprising, is their relatively weak schedule outside of conference. I'm not totally sold on this team.
Maryland, Sag #14, kenpom offense #7, kenpom defense #33, 2nd in conference at 11-3, 21-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Fla St, Georgia Tech
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Cincy, Wisconsin, Villanova, William & Mary !, Wake
3P% - 38.9%, Reb. Margin = +0.3 , FT 71.3%, FG 47.6%, Opp. FG 38.0% –
This team is completely overachieving. They are in danger of getting upset early. Greivis Vasquez (19.5ppg, 6.4assists, 4.8 rebs, 37.9% 3p%); Eric Hayes (45.5% 3p%) , Jordan Williams (9.1ppg, 8.4 rebs). I don't remember any team w/ such an awful rebounding advantage being able to survive long in the tourney. Remember, season numbers should be boosted from playing a bunch of non-tourney teams, so in the tourney, they may get destroyed on the glass.
Clemson, Sag #20, kenpom offense #43, kenpom defense #9, 3rd in conference at 9-6, 21-8
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Butler, Maryland (split), Geo Tech (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Texas A&M, Illinois, BC
3P% - 34.1%, Reb. Margin = +2.6, FT 66.3%, FG 45.8%, Opp. FG 41.6% –
Trevor Booker (6'8" freshman - 15.6ppg, 8.4 rebs); Demontez Sitt (10.9ppg, 38.9% 3p%); balanced scoring from the rest of the team. They can't shoot 3s or free throws, so I don't believe in this team either.
Virginia Tech, Sag #34, kenpom offense #102, kenpom defense #10, 4th in conference at 8-6, 21-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Georgia, Seton Hall, Wake
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Temple, UNC, Miami (FL), BC
3P% - 30.4%, Reb. Margin = +1.8 , FT 72.1%, FG42.3%, Opp. FG 39.5% –
Maclolm Delaney (20.4ppg, 4.1 assists, 30.3% 3p% ! (he takes 6 per game!); Dorenzo Hudson (14.2ppg, 3.6 rebs, 28.7% 3p% ! (he takes 3.6 per game!);
This team also seems really messed up. A 30% 3-point shooting team, with the leading scorer taking 6 per game and shooting 30%??? This doesn't seem like a winning formula.
Fla St, Sag #27, kenpom offense #103, kenpom defense #1, 5th in conference at 8-6, 20-8
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Alabama, Marquette, FIU (take that Isiah!), Geo Tech (twice)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Ohio St, Florida, NC State, Clemson (twice)
3P% - 33.7%, Reb. Margin = +5.4 , FT 64.7%, FG 45.9%, Opp. FG 36.9% –
Six players average between 8 and 11 ppg. Very balanced. They have one 3-point shooter (Deividas Dulkys - 39.9%); a couple of PGs, and a couple of big men (7-1 Solomon Alabi - a top-20 pick on NBA Draft Express and a 6-9 guy). They somehow have the best defense in the land... and one of the worst offenses. I have no idea what that means.
Wake, Sag #35, kenpom offense #89, kenpom defense #24, 5th in conference at 8-6, 18-8
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Gonzaga, Xavier, Richmond, Maryland, Geo Tech (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: William & Mary!, Purdue, NC State
3P% - 32.1%, Reb. Margin = +4.9 , FT 65.5%, FG 44.2%, Opp. FG 37.9% –
Aminu (6'9" - sophomore - 16.4ppg, 11.0 rebs, ) Ishmael Smith (6'0" senior - 13.2 ppg, 6.2 assists, 4.7 rebs); no real 3-point shooter on this team, but they have an NBA-prospect big man and a great PG. This team may have more upside despite the uneven play in conference.
Georgia Tech, Sag #33, kenpom offense #55, kenpom defense #20, 7th in conference at 7-8, 19-10
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Siena, USC, Duke (split), Clemson,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Dayton, Florida St, Georgia, Miami (FL)
3P% - 37.2%, Reb. Margin = +5.0 , FT 65.2%, FG 46.4%, Opp. FG 38.1% –
Lawal (6'8" junior - 13.5ppg, 9.0 rebs, ); Favors (6'10"freshman - 11.7ppg, 8.3 rebs ) - the bench also has FOUR 3-point shooters all above 40%. Lawal and Favors are both slated as NBA draft picks this year. Favors is a top-5 pick, Lawal a top-30 pick. I'd keep an eye on these guys (and this team)!
Big Ten - the top 4 are capable of creating noise so long as Kalin Lucas is healthy for Mich State. Purdue may win a game or two w/o Hummel in the tourney but that's the ceiling. Northwestern blew their chance of going to the tourney, barring a miracle.
Ohio State, Sag #13, kenpom offense #10, kenpom defense #19, 1st in conference at 14-4, 24-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Cal, Fla St, Purdue, Wisconsin, Mich St
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: (Note: lost to Butler, Wisconsin, and Michigan w/o Evan Turner); UNC, Minnesota, W. Virginia, Purdue
3P% - 37.9%, Reb. Margin = +2.2, FT 68.9%, FG 49.4%, Opp. FG 40.8% –
Evan Turner is going to be the #2 pick. If he hadn't missed some games (and 3 losses), Ohio State would be in the running for a #1 seed. Turner is ridiculous (19.8ppg, 5.8 assists, 9.4 rebs, 1.8 steals). They also have Buford (14.3 ppg, 5.5 reb) and Diebler (12.6 ppg, 42% 3p%) and Lighty (12.4 ppg, 4.6 rebs, 39% 3p%). I'll be t he first to admit it - Ohio state doesn't have a bench and they don't have a true PG... meaning they are a really bizarre team and they will be exposed before the Final 4, unless Evan Turner goes Carmelo on us (which I don't think can happen... everyone forgets, but Carmelo at least had two good guards and an NBA forward who was playing center (Hakim Warrick). Evan Turner doesn't have that much help.
Michigan St, Sag #23, kenpom offense #28, kenpom defense #31, 2nd in conference at 12-4, 22-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Gonzaga, Wisconsin (split), Purdue (split),
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Florida, UNC, Texas, Illinois, Ohio St
3P% - 33.3%, Reb. Margin = +9.1 , FT 68.6%, FG 41.7%, Opp. FG 40.5% –
Kalin Lucas (15.1 ppg, 4.0assists, 35% 3p%) must get healthy for them to have a chance. They've been a mess for the last month since his injuries have hampered him.
Purdue, Sag #8, kenpom offense #33, kenpom defense #5, 2nd in conference at 12-4, 24-4
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Tennessee, Wake, Alabama, W. Virginia, Wisconsin (split), Mich St (split), Ohio St (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Northwestern, Wisconsin (split), Mich St (split), Ohio St (split)
3P% - 32.4%, Reb. Margin = +0.2, FT 74.0%, FG 45.2%, Opp. FG 40.2% –
This team can't go too far as they lost all-world PF Robbie Hummel for the season. They still have Moore (6'4" junior - 16.8ppg, 37% 3p%) and J. Johnson (6'10" - junior - 14.7ppg, 7.1rebs)
Wisconsin, Sag #12, kenpom offense #11, kenpom defense #15, 4th in conference at 11-5, 21-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Maryland, Duke, Arizona, Marquette, Ohio St (split), Purdue (split),
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Gonzaga, Wis. Green Bay, Illinois, Minnesota
3P% - 35.8%, Reb. Margin = +1.9 , FT 74.2%, FG44.9%, Opp. FG 41.8% –
Hughes (15.5 ppg, 4.5 rebs, 39.4% 3p%); Leuer (14.4 ppg, 5.8 rebs, ) Bohannon (12.4 ppg, 41.4% 3p%). They have some great wins out of conference, mainly Maryland and Duke. They are always a hard team to gauge, but this team looks pretty solid, though not as good rebounding as most Wisconsin teams.
Illinois, Sag #58, kenpom offense #67, kenpom defense #40, 5th in conference at 10-7, 18-12
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Clemson, Vanderbilt, Mich St, Wisconsin
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Utah, Bradley, Georgia, Missouri, Gonzaga, Ohio St (twice), Purdue (twice), Mich St,
3P% - 34.1%, Reb. Margin = +2.4 , FT 71.0%, FG 45.2%, Opp. FG 39.9% –
I don't know about this team, the resume looks bad, the stats look bad, this is a one-and-done team, if they even get there.
Minnesota, Sag #57, kenpom offense #38, kenpom defense #53, 6th in conference at 8-9, 17-12
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Butler, Ohio St (w/o Turner), Wisconsin
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Portland, Texas A&M, Miami (FL), Indiana, Michigan (twice)
3P% - 39.3%, Reb. Margin = +1.9 , FT 69.5%, FG 47.1%, Opp. FG 40.0% –
They shoot 3s and play defense! It sounds like a winning formula. They also have some terrible losses, so I don't know what's up with them. They need to do well in the Big Ten Tourney to have any chance.
Northwestern, Sag #73, kenpom offense #27, kenpom defense #163, 8th in conference at 7-10, 18-11
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Notre Dame, NC ST, Purdue,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Butler, Illinois, Iowa, Penn St (TWICE BY DOUBLE DIGITS!!!!)
3P% - 36.5%, Reb. Margin = -2.6 , FT 71.2%, FG 47.1%, Opp. FG 42.7% –
The team was ranked in January... and then went through a hideous funk once the uber-competitive Big Ten season started. I thought after last season, this would be the year that Northwestern finally made the tourney. Now? It looks like they need to win the Big ten tourney to make it... and that's not going to happen. They have lots of 3-point shooters (who aren't great)... but they don't rebound or play defense. It's sad.
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2 comments:
The ACC in general has been very poor at rebounding which is how Duke has escaped so far. After watching Maryland they have some talent and I think can be considered a legitimate sweet 16 team.
Turner does have talent around him. Buford has increased his level of play as has Diebler. The problem is the lack of bench. Complete lack of bench.
Lucas seems to be getting healthier. I'm pretty shocked at how bad those D numbers are....
I'm just making the point that carmelo's supporting cast is better than evan turner's. are OSU's cast talented? Yes, just not as much.
michigan state is a disappointment. all i know is maryland had almost perfect numbers 3 years ago and lost in the 2nd round. with imperfect numbers (negative rebounding advantage), it would be funny if they went further. gary williams.
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