Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Skynet Championship Series: Week 2 in the Year 2010

Most underrated by the humans: Missouri (they started the season unranked), Oklahoma (still ranked very highly in the computers), Auburn, Mich St

Most overrated by the humans: Boise St, Oregon, Alabama (ranked much lower in the computers... probably because South Carolina's lost some games since beating Bama?)

SCS BCS Sched Rnk Harris Coaches
1 auburn 0.71 1 16 3 3
2 missouri 1.25 6 25 8 8
3 mich st 1.79 5 55 5 5
4 tcu 3.99 4 65 4 4
5 oklahoma 4.59 9 6 11 11
6 lsu 6.28 12 21 12 13
7 boise st 7.26 3 85 2 2
8 oregon 8.24 2 119 1 1
9 wisconsin 9.71 10 82 9 9
10 utah 11.12 8 122 7 7
11 ohio st 11.19 11 62 10 10
12 bama 12.49 7 58 6 6
13 stanford 12.50 13 71 13 14
14 nebraska 13.77 14 68 14 12
15 arizona 13.83 15 50 15 16
16 florida st 13.96 16 64 16 15
17 ok st 15.89 17 66 20 20
18 iowa 18.04 18 40 17 19
19 s. carolina 18.17 20 23 19 17
20 arkansas 18.32 19 24 18 18


Mighty Mike said...

Alabama is over-ranked because a) they're in the SEC and b) they're Alabama.

Also you keep nothing humans are over-rating/under-rating things when they really are taking into account margin of victory while the computers are not. You should make that more explicit...

MJ said...

Imagine that! Boise State being overrated! I never would've dreamed of such a thing!

Motherfuckers play a crap schedule every year. To borrow from Marie-Antoinette, let Boise State eat shit.

Hitman said...

According to Gutsy's rankings, BSU falls to #7 in Skynet because of its strength of schedule.

Look right below BSU...there's Oregon at #8, with a #119 SOS!

Setting aside the question of why nobody is talking about how the #1 team in the land has a worse schedule than just about every other school with any possible claim to a BCS berth...MJ, surely you must be advocating for Oregon to eat shit as well. Surely you must have concluded that the Ducks should not be ranked #1 in the AP/Coaches polls, or #2 in the BCS. Right?

Because unlike the BCS powers-that-be, you'd never treat BSU differently than Oregon just because one plays in a big conference and the other doesn't.


Gutsy Goldberg said...

oh wow... these are some fun arguments.
1) just for the record (again), i've only posted the schedule according to one computer (colley-matrix). if you think it would be more interesting, i could average the 3 computer polls that i'm using (the 4th - wolfe, does not list schedule ratings). for example:
oregon has a: 59 in sagarin, 74 in anderson, 119 in colley-matrix,
boise state has a: 69 in sagarin, 67 in anderson, 85 in colley-matrix.
2) mighty is right... the "overrated"/"underrated" is relative to the computers. one of the biggest factors is margin of victory, the other is the bias of simply sliding teams up and down each week (creating a bias towards teams that were ranked earlier in the season).
3) boise state and oregon's schedule suck at this point. let's not forget, boise state's rank will continue to fall, while oregon's will improve.

Mighty Mike said...

I didn't realize there was such variation in SOS. Yeah an average would be helpful....

Hitman said...

I also didn't know SOS could vary so dramatically.

If we average these three figures, BSU's SOS is 74 and Oregon's is 84. Food for thought.

Finally...yes, Oregon's SOS should improve while BSU's falls. By December, there may indeed be a legitimate argument to distinguish the two teams. But not at the moment - despite the media's silence on that point.

Mighty Mike said...

@Hitman - I'd actually disagree on the lack of difference between Boise and Oregon. Now everyone has their own definitions for how to rank teams but I consider individual victories over top 30 teams as the distinguisher. In that manner I think Oregon's win over Stanford is more impressive than Boise's victory over V-Tech. Admittedly not a huge difference but as the teams have to be ranked I'd have Oregon above Boise.

That said I think fundamentally you are right - Oregon's scoring binge does cause people to overlook who they have played.

Hitman said...

" Now everyone has their own definitions for how to rank teams but I consider individual victories over top 30 teams as the distinguisher."

Ok...fair enough. I don't know why Top 30 is the cut-off (i.e. why not Top 20? or Top 40?), but the underlying premise is not unreasonable.

As to whether OU over Stanford is better or worse than BSU over VaTech...that's subjective, too, though I suppose by any measure available to us (BCS ranking, computer rankings, even Skynet!), you're right - i.e. Stanford ranks higher than the Hokies. One caveat would be that OU scored its one big win at home, while BSU had to take down VaTech at a neutral location.

Mighty Mike said...

The top 30 is simply because sagarin keeps track of that versus other cut offs. I also feel comfortable with 30 since it's the top 25% (120 FBS schools).

Yes the away v. neutral v. home should be taken into account but the closeness of the game (Oregon crushed Stanford while the Boise-V-Tech game was close) I think cancels out any difference over home v. away. Decisive victories should also count for something.

It's a good debate tho and I think next week I'll try to apply some rules and come up with my own top 10. I hope everyone will do something similar.