| May 1 winning pct.; teams, made playoffs, pct. | Teams heading into Sunday |
| Over .700; 13, 10, 77% | White Sox |
| .600-.700; 46, 24, 52% | Cardinals, Orioles, Twins, Marlins, Dodgers |
| .550-.599; 39, 16, 41% | Braves, D-Backs |
| .500-.549; 42, 11, 26% | Angels, Red Sox, Nationals, Cubs, A's, Giants, Mariners, Blue Jays, Tigers |
| .450-.499; 36, 8, 22% | Rangers, Padres, Mets |
| .400-.44; 36, 2, 6% | Yankees, Phillies, Reds, Astros, Brewers |
| Under .400; 54, 1, 2% | Indians, Devil Rays, Pirates, Rockies, Royals |
Monday, May 02, 2005
Statistics
Here's a little statistic sampling taken from Peter Gammons' recent article. While I loathe Gammons, I'm a big fan of statistics , especially pointing out problems. For example this batch analyzes winning percentage in April as a predictor of making the playoffs. The problem is that this data goes back to 1976. Obviously there are far more playoff slots now than there were in 1976. Also I would factor in the recent trend of mid-season trends (specifically by wealthy teams purchasing small market talent) as a complicating factor . As such the numbers I think are probably not representative of recent trends (e.g. not reliable) nonetheless interesting fodder for discussion. Any of the teams slated to making the playoffs you see taking a nose dive? Any team in the ratpack going to claw its way back?
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3 comments:
Mikey, you stole my thunder! This stat sheet was going to be fodder for my weekly rip on Pissin' Peter Gammons.
Personally, I don't see how the White Sox can sustain their current pace. If all players regress to their mean then we're going to see some spectacular fireworks from Contreras and Garland and we're due for some Buehrle and Garcia stinkers as well. On offense, the ChiSox are really suspect. They're ranked 10th, 10th and 11th out of 14 in OBP, OPS and SLG and since I personally don't expect their pitching to remain at such a high level, I assume that they'll stop winning games 4-1 and start losing them 6-3.
I'll leave the rest of the table alone for other bloggers to comment on. I just had to throw punches at Gammons and the White Sox since I hate them both with gusto.
Sorry Mo.
I'm fairly curious to see how Baltimore's pitching staff can keep up. I have a feeling that they might not perform all season at this pace
I think the O's offense is completely for real. I agree, however, that we can't expect pitchers Bruce Chen, Eric Bedard and the rest of them to keep up the pace like they have been. I see them hanging on until July/August and then getting overtaken by the division's big boys.
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