It is almost training camp time. Time to lace up those shoes, put on the shoulder pads, grit those teeth and turn on the television (note padding might not be necessary for non-Browns fans). The NFL horizontal parity should continue into this year. In English that means every year about 50% of the teams that made the playoffs in the previous year will fail to make it this coming year. Now a lot of the failure to make the playoffs has to do with injuries. I'm willing to bet that the Colts or Seahawks or Patriots will fail to make the playoffs in their starting QB goes down writhing in pain in week 3. Injuries are typically randomly distributed and as such pretty much next to impossible to predict. So injuries aside here is my list of those who made the playoffs last year most likely not to make the playoffs this year (or in the parlance of our time - Fading Stars)
1. Tampa Bay - Tampa Bay seems like the classic one playoff season in and the next out team. Shaky quarterback - check. All new offensive line - check. Much tougher schedule - double check. Tampa will have to face the NFC East and AFC North which adds up to a very small margin for error. Too much for a team that seems to have a razor thin margin to make it back to the playoffs.
2. Jacksonville - Jacksonville doesn't have the burden of a tougher schedule but I think they are at risk. Last year they seemed to win all their games in close fashion - a red flag in my book. Duplicating small margin wins year after year requires a great special teams of which Jacksonville does not have. A possible QB controversy, an injury prone starting QB paints a train wreck possibility waiting to happen. Finally don't underestimate the impact of Jimmy Smith's retirement. Jacksonville really doesn't have a number one receiver anymore.
3. Seattle - There really is nothing wrong with Seattle (maybe the lost of a Pro Bowl guard and Joe Jurvicious who bailed them out more times than I can count). There's also really nothing right with the NFC West. However they are battling history. For the past 5 odd reasons (odd I believe equal to plus or minus 2) no Super Bowl loser has qualified for the playoffs the next year. Seattle's season was a little too perfect - (read no injuries). This year everyone will be gunning for them. Pressure and history makes Seattle's return risky.
4. New England - Lost game's best kicker. Lost a key receiver. Lost key linebacker. Relying on old safety coming back from major new surgery. Relying on rookie (for running back). Any other team and the media would be crying out the sky is falling. New England typically gets a pass because Bill Belicheck can walk on water or turns lead into gold or keeps the moon in his jump suit or whatever is the latest claim. Miami should be better this year and you would be hard pressed to explain why New England will be better next year.
5/6. New York Football Giants and Washington Redskins - Nothing against these two teams personally but the NFC East should be brutal which means any inopportune injury, any slow start, any fluke fumble and their playoff chances will go down faster than Britney Spears career.
7/8 - Pittsburgh/Cinci - Recovering QB Injury Syndrome (RQIS). If Palmer or Rothlisberger play at 80% or less this year those teams chances are way down too. Personally I think Rothlisberger will take a lot longer to recover than is widely being reported. Anyone that has had any sort of oral surgery or tooth ache knows how tender the face is and how susceptible you are to mind numbing headaches. Now imagine you had six hours of oral/facial surgery for multiple breaks. Yeah you might be throwing ball in a few weeks but taking a hit…now that’s a very different story .
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