Wednesday, July 12, 2006

Baseball Notes: Midseason Report

This post is going to be a long one so, to borrow from Bill Simmons, “You don’t have to plow through it now – just print it out and save it for the next bathroom trip. My feelings won’t be hurt.”

1. All-Star Game. It was a competitive and exciting affair featuring good starting pitching, timely hitting, impressive defense, and the continuation of the American League’s mastery over their National League counterparts.

Some stream of consciousness thoughts on the game: Travis Hafner belonged at the game; AJ Pierzynski and Mark Redman did not...Brad Penny threw with more velocity than I’ve ever seen him throw, and I’ve followed his career closely since 2002...Brian Fuentes might be the best relief pitcher we’ve never heard of on the east coast...Ichiro looked abysmal in all three of his at-bats...For all the grief ARod takes, he (and not Ortiz) was the only one that made consistent contact against Penny’s heaters...Pudge didn’t look that good last night, allowing two stolen bases and making a weak attempt at blocking Halladay’s errant curveball...John Kruk is a fat-assed moron if he’s going to blame Phil Garner for not having the “hands” team on the field in the 9th inning; Hoffman gave up a clean single, a double into the stands and a triple in the gap and there was nothing a team of “web-gemmers” could do about it.

2. Bud Selig. In his annual “State of the Game” press conference, Commissioner Selig endorsed the creation of the following new rule:

“Selig likes the idea of a rule that would preclude All-Star pitchers from pitching the Sunday before the game. Glavine, Jose Contreras and Chris Carpenter were among the pitchers unavailable to perform in Pittsburgh because they played Sunday.”

Clearly cracked has the commissioner become. At no point should an exhibition game (even if “it counts”) ever trump games that mean something to divisional standings. Why should teams have to re-arrange their rotations? In the Mets situation, sure, it doesn’t matter if they go into the All-Star break with an 11 or a 12 game lead but to the Cards, the ramifications of not having their ace on the mound for the rubber match of a three-game series...let’s just say this idea hasn’t been well-thought out.

3. Pythagorean Win-Loss Records. With an assist from Mighty Mike, the co-editor of this rag we like to call Back Seat Drivers, I have been dutifully compiling and updating a spreadsheet of each team’s runs scored and runs allowed in order to track the week-by-week progression of teams’ actual record against their record generated through the Pythagorean Method. For the uninitiated, the Pythagorean Method in baseball is the creation of Bill James, the pre-eminent baseball statistician. It is a formula designed to relate how many runs a team scored and allowed to its won-lost record.

The highlights of my weekly tracking tell me that:

-Cleveland and Pittsburgh are the AL’s and NL’s biggest underachievers. The Indians and Pirates are 14 and 16 wins below their expected Pythagorean win totals, respectively;

-Chicago and Milwaukee and are the AL’s and NL’s biggest overachievers. The White Sox and Brewers are 7 and 11 wins above their expected Pythagorean win totals, respectively;

-The AL East is, top-to-bottom, the game’s most overachieving division with a cumulative +3 spread between actual and Pythagorean Wins;

-The NL East is, top-to-bottom, the game’s most underachieving division, with a cumulative -3 spread between actual and Pythagorean Wins;

-The AL West is the only division in baseball whose cumulative spread is less than 0.5 wins between actual and Pythagorean Wins;

-Based on actual wins, the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox are the only teams on pace for 100-win seasons;

-Based on Pythagorean Wins, the Detroit Tigers are the only team on pace for a 100-win season;

-Based on actual losses, the Kansas City Royals and Pittsburgh Pirates are the only teams on pace for 100-loss seasons;

-Based on Pythagorean losses, the Kansas City Royals are the only team on pace for a 100-loss season;

-Based on actual wins, the playoffs, if they began today, would feature the Red Sox, Tigers, A’s, and White Sox in the American League and the Mets, Cardinals, Padres, and Dodgers in the National League; and

-Based on Pythagorean Wins, the playoffs, if they began today, would feature the Yankees, Tigers, Rangers, and White Sox in the American League and the Mets, Cardinals, Dodgers, and Padres in the National League.

4. Predictions Revisited. My preseason predictions appear to be a mixed bag. Halfway through, I look good with the White Sox and Red Sox, but the Yanks and Angels will have to work a little harder to make me look like Nostradamus. In the NL, I’m doing better with my Mets/Cards/Dodgers trifecta, the Braves being the only blemish (although technically not out of it).

In terms of awards, there’s no chance that ARod wins MVP even if he has an ARodian second half. The voters are salivating for the chance to go for Ortiz or Thome this year, just to prove that they’re not predisposed to voting against the DH. Rich Harden won’t win the AL Cy Young award from the DL and he seems to have become Kerry Wood’s AL counterpart in that both have cornered the market on talent and fragility. My Frankie Liriano for AL Rookie of the Year is slowly gaining momentum. Papelbon is still on top but it’ll be hard to deny Liriano if he ends up with 20 wins and a sub-2.50 ERA.

Over in the NL, Pujols might win the MVP but right now it’s David Wright and Nomar Garciaparra doing battle for the top honors. Jake Peavy will win the award someday, but it won’t be in 2006. Matt Murton is a non-factor in the NL ROY race as Conor Jackson, Josh Willingham, Brian McCann, Dan Uggla and others are way ahead of the Cubs outfielder.

Hopefully you’ve enjoyed reading my midseason roundup. If you’ve followed Sports Guy’s advice, please be courteous and don’t forget to flush for the next customer.

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