Part three of predicting the playoffs is perhaps the toughest. In part one I (well we) covered the returnees, teams that made the playoffs last year. In part two, analysis was directed at the potential rebounders, teams that made the playoffs two years ago but not last year. Part three, of course, is all the rest. Generally the statistics show out that 50% of returnees make it the next year (for those keeping score that's six out of twelve playoff teams). Rebounders have averaged two playoff spots per year. That leaves four playoff spots from the crop of twelve or so teams that have not tasted the Promised Land in several years. Some of the teams will be up and comers that finally break through, like Cincinnati did last year. Others will be lightening bolts that catch most of us off guard, like Chicago did last year. While this year's crop of grab baggers seems a trifle weak, but that's the joy of the NFL, the unexpected happens. Here is my list of possible playoff teams from that category.
1. Dallas
Pro: Dallas last year barely missed out on the playoffs and that was after a number of heartbreaking close losses. By sheer chance one would assume the close games might go Dallas' way this year. The addition of a kicker that can put in through the uprights in the form of Vanderjet, should push chance farther onto the side of Dallas. I will also list (deep breathe here) a positive in the form of Terrell Owens. When not serving as a one man press junket, T.O. is one of the top receivers in the league. If T.O. will ever focus on football it will be under the watchful eye of Parcells and the knowledge that any incident could spell the end of his career.
Con: Dallas plays in arguably the toughest division in football (arguably to tell the truth I'm not entirely sold on the NFC East). Nonetheless with no easy games in the division, Dallas could win the division or end up in last place. There is also the matter of Drew Bledsoe. Can Drew stay healthy? Upright? Whatever pros Bledsoe might bring he certainly is no Pro Bowler.
2. Miami
Pro: Nick Saban seems to have the magic touch. Whether it was at Michigan State, Louisiana State, or today in Miami Saban has so far not met a situation he could not improve. Miami finished at 9-7 with six straight wins. The Dolphins will have another year in Saban's system, they will applaud the arrival of Culpepper (who will at the minimum end the merry go round at QB that plagued the team last year) and face a declining hegemon of the Patriots the conditions seem right for Miami to breakthrough.
Con: Culpepper didn't exactly finish his tenure in Minnesota on a high note both on and off the field. Can Culpepper regain his 2004 form? Heck can he recover from about as severe a knee injury as possible? If not, falling back on Joey Harrington is a risky proposition at best.
3. Kansas City
Pro: Great Offense. All Larry Johnson all the time. Trent Green still can sling the ball to keep defenses honest against the former Nittany Lion.
Con: The offensive line is getting long in the tooth. The defense has never gotten its act together. I also don't think the replacement of Dick Vermeil with Herm Edwards is an improvement but frankly that’s more opinion than anything.
4.
Arizona
Pro: Outstanding passing game last year and this year they added Edge to possibly give them a running game. Dennis Green had a track record of building winners in
Minnesota and
Arizona certainly has been making slow steps in that direct each of Green's years in
Arizona (record shmecord. The Cards were better last year than the year before, just not good enough).
Con: Kurt Warner being healthy an entire year? Leinart being able to step in when Warner gets hurt? Arizona has been a darkhorse for two years now, so call me skeptical that they'll finally do it.
5. Baltimore
Pro: McNair is certainly a step up from what Baltimore was throwing out onto the field last year. Jamal Lewis will actually be in training camp this year as opposed to training in prison. Ray Lewis, while a step slower, returns.
Con: Coaches in the last year of their contract, especially when under the gun, rarely are able to get a coherent and organized team running. Players tend to be looking out for their own future when they know the current coach can't grant any future security. Also while McNair is an improvement he certainly wasn't able to get the Titans into the playoffs last year.
6. Cleveland
Pro: They brought in a number of key acquisitions that should improve key weaknesses from last year. The Browns were unable to put pressure on the QB so they brought in Willie McGinist. The Browns were unable to stop the run so they brought in Ted Washington. The Browns were terrible in short yardage situations so they brought in Pro Bowl Center LeCharles Bentley.
Con: It is Cleveland and therefore subject to terrible luck. Add on the fact that I actively root for them and I'm surprised that half the team doesn't spontaneously combust. On a more serious note the Browns fortune is tied to the improvements of second year quarterback Charlie Frye and second year offensive coordinator Mo Carthan.
7. New Orleans/Detroit/Houston
Pro: Actually both have a great deal of offensive talent. Both got new regimes that replaced ineffective ones.
Con: Are the new coaches any better than the old ones? How much of talent gap actually exists? Are the current quarterbacks good enough?
8. The rest (Buffalo, San Francisco, Oakland, Tennessee)
These teams will not make the playoffs. I will punish myself by eating Arby's if I'm mistaken on this one.
Tune in next week for Part IV: Key Players
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