Here is Part II of my 2007 Baseball Preview. As I said last week, if it seems skinny in terms of details, that’s because this is merely meant as a rough sketch of how I see the season going down. Since I’ll be covering each team extensively throughout the season, I figure all we need to do is get my picks down on paper.
AL East:
1. Yankees. This isn’t a homer pick. I’m going with the Yanks because they have the best combination of lineup, bench, rotation, and bullpen in the division. ESPN has spent the past few days telling us about all of the trouble in the Yankees rotation because Carl Pavano is their opening day starter. Who cares who starts the first of 162 games? The point is to win the most games over six months, not to be 1-0 when you go to bed on Monday night. Although the Yanks lost a big righty bat in their lineup when they traded Gary Sheffield to Detroit, everyone forgets that the team led the majors in scoring last year without Sheffield and Matsui for most of the season. Factor in the best bullpen in the division – yes, you heard that right – and the deletion of Randy Johnson and Jaret Wright (addition by subtraction) and I think the Yanks look their leanest and meanest since 2003. A few lucky breaks along the way and they’re being fitted for rings in late October.
2. Red Sox. Boston improved the depth in their lineup by adding Julio Lugo and JD Drew. On paper, this is the best lineup Boston’s had in the Manny/Papi era. The bullpen was stabilized last week with the return of Jonathan Papelbon to the closer’s role, as well as with the additions of JC Romero and Brendan Donnelly via trade, but I think people are overestimating the strength of Boston’s rotation. Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett, and Daisuke Matsuzaka provide a lot of cachet but two of them (Schilling/Beckett) pitched at or below league-average caliber last season. The third – much hyped so far this spring – has actually not pitched that much better than his Japanese counterpart in New York, Kei Igawa. Observe their spring stats (IP/H/R/ER/BB/K):
Matsuzaka: 17.2/9/5/4/7/19
Igawa: 17/13/5/5/12/19
Matsuzaka’s numbers are better. But are they tens of millions of dollars better? The answer would appear to be no.
3. Blue Jays. Toronto has the same things going for it in 2007 as it did in 2006 – a powerful offense, a loaded pitching rotation at the top, and a dominant closer. What they don’t have is a lot of help in middle relief and that was a major problem for them last season. Despite their second place finish in 2006, I just can’t give them the nod here because Boston retooled enough to push them back into the second spot. As an extra mark against them, I think their manager’s a complete loose cannon and it won’t take long before he’s back to fighting with his players. Eventually players get tired of the fire and brimstone tough-guy routine and tune that kind of stuff out. Especially in baseball when you’re traveling together for six long, hot months.
4. Orioles. This is a curious team. They have several good pitching prospects at the major league level in Erik Bedard, Adam Loewen, Daniel Cabrera, and Hayden Penn. They also have the benefit of Leo Mazzone working with this stable of young talent. What they don’t have is the offense necessary to mash with the three teams above them in the standings. And they enjoy no homefield advantage as their hitter-friendly park routinely sells out when the Yankees and Red Sox drive down I-95 and fill up seats to root for the “road” team. Toss in a terrible owner and a confused GM and this is a team stuck in fourth-place purgatory.
5. Devil Rays. The D-Rays are Baltimore’s bizarro sibling. Whereas they have absolutely nothing in the way of exciting young pitching, they are loaded with baseball’s best crop of young hitters. Carl Crawford, Rocco Baldelli, Delmon Young, and future stars BJ Upton and Evan Longoria are all current or future stars in the game. The problem with the team is that they’ve got no clue how to manage their farm system, letting great talent rot in the minors while blocking their progress with stiffs such as Ty Wigginton, Travis Lee and Damon Hollins at the big league level. No starting pitching + no bullpen + too much offense in the division = another 90+ losses in 2007.
AL Central:
1. Indians. I’m going out on a limb here with the second-best offense of the 2006 season. Yes it’s Cleveland so anything that could go wrong probably will. Yes their manager doesn’t push his players or make them accountable for sloppy and listless play. But it’s hard to argue with a team that boasts the division’s two best hitters in Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner. By all statistical measures, Hafner had a better claim to the 2006 MVP than any player in the AL but was done in by the fact that he was a DH on a fourth-place team. The Tribe always opts for the low-budget approach but has added depth to the back end of their bullpen with new closer Joe Borowski and setup man Roberto Hernandez and their rotation is full of underrated-but-dependable arms like CC Sabathia, Jake Westbrook, and Cliff Lee. If young arms Jeremy Sowers and, down the line, Adam Miller, can turn in good performances, this team has what it takes to win 90+ games and their first division title since 1997.
2. Tigers. The magical ride of 2006 is over. Too many breaks went their way last year and I think Detroit will figure out that Curtis Granderson, Craig Monroe, and Marcus Thames are all fourth outfielder types. Gary Sheffield, motivated and full of rage as he may be, is still a 38 year old defensive liability coming off of wrist surgery. In a pitcher-friendly ballpark whose dimensions don’t favor righty pull hitters, I don’t see much power coming from Sheff’s spot in the lineup. It’s hard to argue with Jeremy Bonderman as team ace – he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball that no one really knows yet – but I think the Tigers will come back down and miss out on back-to-back playoff berths by the narrowest of margins.
3. White Sox. On paper, this team has a stacked lineup of power hitters. Their offseason pitching moves, however, seem to be designed with an eye towards the future. I don’t see how Gavin Floyd was an upgrade over Freddy Garcia and, if Bobby Jenks is hurt, the bullpen could be asking a lot of Mike McDougal who has flamed out as closer before (in the far less pressure-filled environment of Kansas City). They won 90 games last year with some truly bad pitching in the second half. I think they’re an 85 win team right now.
4. Twins. Because someone has to finish in fourth place...Although the best pitcher in all of baseball resides on the Twins, although they have the reigning (however bogus the voting was) 2006 AL MVP, although they have the reigning AL batting champion, and although they have the best closer in the AL not named Rivera, they still have no depth in the lineup or rotation beyond these four All-Star caliber guys. I think no one knows where to rank this team. If Morneau and Mauer play as well as they did last year, they could pass Chicago and possibly Detroit into a close race with Cleveland. But if they slip even a little bit, this team looks like a .500 team to me.
5. Royals. It’s not even worth wasting time here. The worst owner in baseball will hold back a good young GM and tank yet another season. Even if 3B prospect Alex Gordon is the second coming of ARod, we already know how the story will end – Gordon will be traded for peanuts and the Royals will blame the Yankees, Red Sox, and Mets for their troubles. It’s been the same song and dance for nearly 15 years now and it’s totally played out.
AL West:
1. Angels. Picking between the A’s and Angels for the top spot was a very tough choice. The Angels are among the most conservative teams when it comes to acquiring talent via trade and free agency and it has cost them, at various points over the past two seasons, the chance to add players such as Miguel Tejada, Manny Ramirez, Roy Oswalt, and Aramis Ramirez. They’re expected to be players in the ARod market next winter but you never know if they’ll get cold feet again. Their offense doesn’t look very impressive on paper and, outside of Vlad Guerrero, there isn’t a single hitter on that team that can’t be pitched to. But their rotation remains strong with John Lackey, Ervin Santana, and Kelvim Escobar and Bartolo Colon and Jered Weaver should be back in the mix before too long. Where the Angels continue to excel is in their bullpen. And, as everyone knows, I’m a big fan of teams that have shut-down relief pitchers. I think they’ll win this division but it’ll come down to the last weekend of the season.
2. Athletics. I would’ve gone with Oakland but their offense is just as sleepy as the Angels, but without the benefit of a Vlad Guerrero type in the middle of the order. Their bullpen is good but not quite as good as their division rivals. I trust Billy Beane more than his counterpart Bill Stoneman but sometimes there’s no making up for the fact that while the Angels are counting on young players, the A’s are hoping Mike Piazza gives them what Frank Thomas gave them in 2006. Personally, I just don’t see a .270-39-114 season coming from a guy that hasn’t topped 22 homers since 2002.
3. Rangers. The same old Rangers have the same old bad pitching. The Rangers are as poorly-run a franchise as there is in baseball, continually failing to develop a homegrown pitcher that sticks in the big leagues. What’s all that offense good for when you can’t stop the other team from scoring? Of course there’s a darkhorse element to the Rangers because they’re in the first year of the post-Buck Showalter era. Texas will be trying to replicate the World Series success of the 1996 Yankees and 2001 Diamondbacks by trying to win a ring in the year immediately after firing Buck. Can it be done? I don’t know, but I’m throwing $10 on them in Vegas in the hopes that luck hits for a third time.
4. Mariners. Who doesn’t love watching Ichiro? He’s just a marvel of hitting, contorting his body to reach every pitch thrown his way. But there’s really nothing else to like about this team. Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre are trying to pitch in and do their parts but it’s just never enough. This team has no talent in the rotation beyond young King Felix Hernandez. Their outfield has no pop. Baseball in Seattle is dying on the vine right now.
Playoffs & Awards:
Yankees, Indians, Angels, Red Sox (WC)
AL Pennant: Yankees
World Series: Yankees over Dodgers in 5
AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez
AL Cy Young: Johan Santana
AL East:
1. Yankees. This isn’t a homer pick. I’m going with the Yanks because they have the best combination of lineup, bench, rotation, and bullpen in the division. ESPN has spent the past few days telling us about all of the trouble in the Yankees rotation because Carl Pavano is their opening day starter. Who cares who starts the first of 162 games? The point is to win the most games over six months, not to be 1-0 when you go to bed on Monday night. Although the Yanks lost a big righty bat in their lineup when they traded Gary Sheffield to Detroit, everyone forgets that the team led the majors in scoring last year without Sheffield and Matsui for most of the season. Factor in the best bullpen in the division – yes, you heard that right – and the deletion of Randy Johnson and Jaret Wright (addition by subtraction) and I think the Yanks look their leanest and meanest since 2003. A few lucky breaks along the way and they’re being fitted for rings in late October.
2. Red Sox. Boston improved the depth in their lineup by adding Julio Lugo and JD Drew. On paper, this is the best lineup Boston’s had in the Manny/Papi era. The bullpen was stabilized last week with the return of Jonathan Papelbon to the closer’s role, as well as with the additions of JC Romero and Brendan Donnelly via trade, but I think people are overestimating the strength of Boston’s rotation. Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett, and Daisuke Matsuzaka provide a lot of cachet but two of them (Schilling/Beckett) pitched at or below league-average caliber last season. The third – much hyped so far this spring – has actually not pitched that much better than his Japanese counterpart in New York, Kei Igawa. Observe their spring stats (IP/H/R/ER/BB/K):
Matsuzaka: 17.2/9/5/4/7/19
Igawa: 17/13/5/5/12/19
Matsuzaka’s numbers are better. But are they tens of millions of dollars better? The answer would appear to be no.
3. Blue Jays. Toronto has the same things going for it in 2007 as it did in 2006 – a powerful offense, a loaded pitching rotation at the top, and a dominant closer. What they don’t have is a lot of help in middle relief and that was a major problem for them last season. Despite their second place finish in 2006, I just can’t give them the nod here because Boston retooled enough to push them back into the second spot. As an extra mark against them, I think their manager’s a complete loose cannon and it won’t take long before he’s back to fighting with his players. Eventually players get tired of the fire and brimstone tough-guy routine and tune that kind of stuff out. Especially in baseball when you’re traveling together for six long, hot months.
4. Orioles. This is a curious team. They have several good pitching prospects at the major league level in Erik Bedard, Adam Loewen, Daniel Cabrera, and Hayden Penn. They also have the benefit of Leo Mazzone working with this stable of young talent. What they don’t have is the offense necessary to mash with the three teams above them in the standings. And they enjoy no homefield advantage as their hitter-friendly park routinely sells out when the Yankees and Red Sox drive down I-95 and fill up seats to root for the “road” team. Toss in a terrible owner and a confused GM and this is a team stuck in fourth-place purgatory.
5. Devil Rays. The D-Rays are Baltimore’s bizarro sibling. Whereas they have absolutely nothing in the way of exciting young pitching, they are loaded with baseball’s best crop of young hitters. Carl Crawford, Rocco Baldelli, Delmon Young, and future stars BJ Upton and Evan Longoria are all current or future stars in the game. The problem with the team is that they’ve got no clue how to manage their farm system, letting great talent rot in the minors while blocking their progress with stiffs such as Ty Wigginton, Travis Lee and Damon Hollins at the big league level. No starting pitching + no bullpen + too much offense in the division = another 90+ losses in 2007.
AL Central:
1. Indians. I’m going out on a limb here with the second-best offense of the 2006 season. Yes it’s Cleveland so anything that could go wrong probably will. Yes their manager doesn’t push his players or make them accountable for sloppy and listless play. But it’s hard to argue with a team that boasts the division’s two best hitters in Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner. By all statistical measures, Hafner had a better claim to the 2006 MVP than any player in the AL but was done in by the fact that he was a DH on a fourth-place team. The Tribe always opts for the low-budget approach but has added depth to the back end of their bullpen with new closer Joe Borowski and setup man Roberto Hernandez and their rotation is full of underrated-but-dependable arms like CC Sabathia, Jake Westbrook, and Cliff Lee. If young arms Jeremy Sowers and, down the line, Adam Miller, can turn in good performances, this team has what it takes to win 90+ games and their first division title since 1997.
2. Tigers. The magical ride of 2006 is over. Too many breaks went their way last year and I think Detroit will figure out that Curtis Granderson, Craig Monroe, and Marcus Thames are all fourth outfielder types. Gary Sheffield, motivated and full of rage as he may be, is still a 38 year old defensive liability coming off of wrist surgery. In a pitcher-friendly ballpark whose dimensions don’t favor righty pull hitters, I don’t see much power coming from Sheff’s spot in the lineup. It’s hard to argue with Jeremy Bonderman as team ace – he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball that no one really knows yet – but I think the Tigers will come back down and miss out on back-to-back playoff berths by the narrowest of margins.
3. White Sox. On paper, this team has a stacked lineup of power hitters. Their offseason pitching moves, however, seem to be designed with an eye towards the future. I don’t see how Gavin Floyd was an upgrade over Freddy Garcia and, if Bobby Jenks is hurt, the bullpen could be asking a lot of Mike McDougal who has flamed out as closer before (in the far less pressure-filled environment of Kansas City). They won 90 games last year with some truly bad pitching in the second half. I think they’re an 85 win team right now.
4. Twins. Because someone has to finish in fourth place...Although the best pitcher in all of baseball resides on the Twins, although they have the reigning (however bogus the voting was) 2006 AL MVP, although they have the reigning AL batting champion, and although they have the best closer in the AL not named Rivera, they still have no depth in the lineup or rotation beyond these four All-Star caliber guys. I think no one knows where to rank this team. If Morneau and Mauer play as well as they did last year, they could pass Chicago and possibly Detroit into a close race with Cleveland. But if they slip even a little bit, this team looks like a .500 team to me.
5. Royals. It’s not even worth wasting time here. The worst owner in baseball will hold back a good young GM and tank yet another season. Even if 3B prospect Alex Gordon is the second coming of ARod, we already know how the story will end – Gordon will be traded for peanuts and the Royals will blame the Yankees, Red Sox, and Mets for their troubles. It’s been the same song and dance for nearly 15 years now and it’s totally played out.
AL West:
1. Angels. Picking between the A’s and Angels for the top spot was a very tough choice. The Angels are among the most conservative teams when it comes to acquiring talent via trade and free agency and it has cost them, at various points over the past two seasons, the chance to add players such as Miguel Tejada, Manny Ramirez, Roy Oswalt, and Aramis Ramirez. They’re expected to be players in the ARod market next winter but you never know if they’ll get cold feet again. Their offense doesn’t look very impressive on paper and, outside of Vlad Guerrero, there isn’t a single hitter on that team that can’t be pitched to. But their rotation remains strong with John Lackey, Ervin Santana, and Kelvim Escobar and Bartolo Colon and Jered Weaver should be back in the mix before too long. Where the Angels continue to excel is in their bullpen. And, as everyone knows, I’m a big fan of teams that have shut-down relief pitchers. I think they’ll win this division but it’ll come down to the last weekend of the season.
2. Athletics. I would’ve gone with Oakland but their offense is just as sleepy as the Angels, but without the benefit of a Vlad Guerrero type in the middle of the order. Their bullpen is good but not quite as good as their division rivals. I trust Billy Beane more than his counterpart Bill Stoneman but sometimes there’s no making up for the fact that while the Angels are counting on young players, the A’s are hoping Mike Piazza gives them what Frank Thomas gave them in 2006. Personally, I just don’t see a .270-39-114 season coming from a guy that hasn’t topped 22 homers since 2002.
3. Rangers. The same old Rangers have the same old bad pitching. The Rangers are as poorly-run a franchise as there is in baseball, continually failing to develop a homegrown pitcher that sticks in the big leagues. What’s all that offense good for when you can’t stop the other team from scoring? Of course there’s a darkhorse element to the Rangers because they’re in the first year of the post-Buck Showalter era. Texas will be trying to replicate the World Series success of the 1996 Yankees and 2001 Diamondbacks by trying to win a ring in the year immediately after firing Buck. Can it be done? I don’t know, but I’m throwing $10 on them in Vegas in the hopes that luck hits for a third time.
4. Mariners. Who doesn’t love watching Ichiro? He’s just a marvel of hitting, contorting his body to reach every pitch thrown his way. But there’s really nothing else to like about this team. Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre are trying to pitch in and do their parts but it’s just never enough. This team has no talent in the rotation beyond young King Felix Hernandez. Their outfield has no pop. Baseball in Seattle is dying on the vine right now.
Playoffs & Awards:
Yankees, Indians, Angels, Red Sox (WC)
AL Pennant: Yankees
World Series: Yankees over Dodgers in 5
AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez
AL Cy Young: Johan Santana
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