With apologies to all, here is Part I of my 2007 Baseball Preview. It’s coming a tad later than I expected to deliver it but, as usual, life got in the way of my duties as chief baseball correspondent. If it seems skinny in terms of details, that’s because this is merely meant as a rough sketch of how I see the season going down. Since I’ll be covering each team extensively throughout the season, I figure all we need to do is get my picks down on paper.
NL East:
1. Mets. The entire NL is in a state of flux and there is no one dominant team. But the Mets do seem to have the league’s best offense and, in the regular season, it’s all about outscoring your opponents over the long haul. The shortcomings in their starting rotation are well known at this point: the team will be without Pedro Martinez until after the All-Star break, and they’re relying on an unheralded crew of John Maine, Oliver Perez, Chan Ho Park, and rookie prospect Mike Pelfrey to support the elderly-but-effective Tom Glavine and El Duque Hernandez. The Mets other strength lies in their deep bullpen. Although bullpens do tend to be unpredictable, the Mets seem to have assembled a strong corps in front of closer Billy Wagner. Unless the Mets find a way to address their thin rotation, I don’t see them making much noise in the playoffs. But I do think that a lineup-and-bullpen approach can work over 162 games.
2. Phillies. The Phils led the National League in runs scored last year but also gave up the third-most runs in the league. Their offense is in tact, powered by 2006 MVP Ryan Howard and future MVP candidate Chase Utley. Their rotation goes six deep with Brett Myers, Freddy Garcia, Jamie Moyer, Cole Hamels, Adam Eaton, and John Lieber, but their bullpen will be a problem for them in 2007. I think the Phils will contend and I don’t think the Mets will run away with the division again, but ultimately I think their lack of quality arms in the ‘pen will cut their season short.
3. Braves. The Braves intrigue me this year. They are finally entering the season with an established closer (Bob Wickman) and two capable setup men (Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano). They have their star slugger playing for a big contract extension (Andruw Jones). Despite age and injuries, a starting duo of John Smoltz and Tim Hudson still represent the division’s best top-line arms. Had Atlanta not had that dreadful month of June, when they went 6-21, people forget that the Braves scored the second-most runs in the NL last year. Just like the Phils – who I like better because their lineup has more depth – I think the Braves will be in this race all season long.
4. Marlins. The poor Marlins are dealing with all sorts of problems right now. Josh Johnson (12-7, 3.10) is injured. Taylor Tankersley is injured. Dontrelle Willis is coming off a cruddy season and an even worse off-season. The team miraculously contended last year but I’m not sure they’ll get as lucky this year. Outside of Miguel Cabrera, the lineup doesn’t boast a single player that can’t be pitched to. They do have some exciting young talent, including 2006 Rookie of the Year Hanley Ramirez, but I don’t think they have enough juice to finish much better than a few games under .500.
5. Nationals. Buster Olney reported that the Nationals have a chance to be the worst team in baseball history, eclipsing the 1962 Mets record of 40-120. Suffice it to say that you’ve never heard of half these guys and probably will never hear from them again in a couple of years. Ryan Zimmerman, Chad Cordero, and the always-injured Nick Johnson are about it for this team. It’ll be a long season for the Nats, but at least they’ll have a nice new ballpark to play in next year.
NL Central:
1. Cardinals. It’s a dull and uninspired choice but they do happen to have the game’s best hitter and the league’s second-best pitcher in Albert Pujols and Chris Carpenter. They lost nearly their entire rotation, their closer is coming back from surgery, and two-thirds of their starting outfield (Jim Edmonds, Juan Encarnacion) are injured right now so there’s a lot not to like. I think their GM is a dullard with no vision and even less in the way of balls. But in a division as poor as the NL Central, having an MVP candidate and a Cy Young candidate gives them an advantage that most teams don’t have. And Scott Rolen’s no slouch either.
2. Astros. Yes, another dull and uninspired choice. But in a division filled with charity cases, the short-term outlook still favors Houston because of a Berkman-Lee-Ensberg lineup and because an Oswalt-Jennings rotation is still better than most in the division. Their bullpen, despite Lidge’s failures last year, remains stocked with power arms. I don’t see the Astros contending much beyond 2008 if they don’t make some immediate changes in their lineup (really, how much longer can Craig Biggio hold back talents like Chris Burke and Hunter Pence?) but they can still stick around for one last run at October.
T3. Brewers. They were a sleeper pick last year and sucked. They’re a sleeper pick this year and I still think they’re going to suck. But it’s hard to argue with some of their talent on paper. Prince Fielder and Rickie Weeks are legitimate All-Star caliber players. Jeff Suppan is a suitable #3 starter behind Ben Sheets and Chris Capuano. Their bench is certainly deep, with guys like Kevin Mench and Laynce Nix adding depth. I think their bullpen is suspect and a young lineup can be too streaky to win consistently enough, but I think that in a division as bad as this, there’s no reason why they can’t be in the conversation until mid-August or early September.
T3. Cubs. The Cubs were downright awful last year, scoring the second-fewest, and giving up the second-most runs in the NL. While they made the biggest splash of the off-season, throwing money at Alfonso Soriano, Jason Marquis, Ted Lilly, and Aramis Ramirez, they still haven’t addressed the needs of their bullpen or, quite frankly, shored up their rotation enough to feel like this is a winning team. I do think that Lou Piniella is the type of manager that can squeeze results out of underqualified teams so I could see the Cubs sneaking up a little higher here but, in the end, they’re still relying on Mark Prior to pitch up to at least league-average standards.
5. Reds. By default, someone has to finish in this spot. The Reds do have some things to like: Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo are a decent discount 1-2 punch in the rotation. Adam Dunn is still the best pure power hitter in the division. Brandon Phillips and Edwin Encarnacion can take more positive steps this year towards becoming consistent players. The back end of their rotation is weak, their bullpen is filled with lots of older guys who are injured (Mike Stanton, Eddie Guardado, David Weathers) and, like many others, they don’t have much margin for error. They finished two games under .500 last year and I think they’ll be within that range again this year.
6. Pirates. The Pirates may, one day, get out of the cellar. They’ve certainly drafted enough top pitchers over the past few years (Zach Duke, Tom Gorzelanny) that they shouldn’t stink this badly. But, as is the problem with a lot of small market teams whose players don’t all pan out, there’s little margin for error here and the Pirates just don’t score enough runs to win on a consistent basis.
NL West:
1. Dodgers. The Dodgers are sort of an old-school NL team. They’re built entirely around pitching and speed and their offense seems to be an afterthought. They signed Juan Pierre and Luis Gonzalez, neither of which seemed to make much sense at the time. They’re still relying on Nomar Garciaparra and Jeff Kent, although it’s probably safe to say that at 33 and 39 respectively, given their recent injury issues, expectations should be tempered. The Dodgers do have some exciting young players coming up in the form of Russell Martin, James Loney, and Andre Ethier and their bullpen has definite star potential with Jonathan Broxton and Hong-Chih Kuo. I worry about their offense, but I think Jason Schmidt, Derek Lowe, and Brad Penny are enough at the top of the rotation to get them a division title. The big wildcard here is Grady Little. He’s among the worst in-game managers in baseball so you can always count on him to throw a grenade or two and foul everything up.
2. Diamondbacks. I was tempted to put them in the top spot but their offense has the potential to be as suspect as LA’s and they don’t have the benefit of as deep a bullpen. Their rotation has a couple of older guys – Livan Hernandez and Randy Johnson come to mind – but between them, Brandon Webb and Doug Davis, the D-Backs can expect their starters to work deep into games next year. There are lots of young hitters on this team: Chad Tracy, Conor Jackson, Carlos Quentin, and Stephen Drew. If a few of them can put it together this year, they might sneak up on people a year earlier than folks are predicting.
3. Padres. The Padres are kind of interesting. On the one hand, they have a deep rotation, with Peavy, Professor Maddux, Chris Young, and Boomer Wells pitching to a good defense in a hitter-unfriendly park. They will struggle to score runs (as they did last year) but any team that pitches as well as this team will be in the mix all year long. If nothing else, a rotation like that should prevent any extended losing streaks.
4. Giants. I really don’t like the construction of this team. They have very little in the way of talent on offense, their team is on the older side, and their bullpen might be among the worst in baseball. Swapping out Jason Schmidt for Barry Zito really doesn’t accomplish anything except make them more expensive. Barry Bonds will have a good season but there’s not much else going on here that would give me reason to be optimistic. They’ll make noise in the Wild Card race, but only because the league is lacking in runaway talent. This is the definition of a .500 team.
5. Rockies. I think the Rockies are finally on the right track. They’ve got some real talent that will be coming of age in the next two years and the future is brighter for them than it’s been since Don Baylor took them to the playoffs a decade ago. It’s not their time yet, but they won’t be much worse than a handful of games under .500.
Playoffs & Awards:
Mets, Cardinals, Dodgers, Diamondbacks (WC)
NL Pennant: Mets
NL MVP: Albert Pujols
NL Cy Young: Roy Oswalt
Next week – 2007 AL Preview
NL East:
1. Mets. The entire NL is in a state of flux and there is no one dominant team. But the Mets do seem to have the league’s best offense and, in the regular season, it’s all about outscoring your opponents over the long haul. The shortcomings in their starting rotation are well known at this point: the team will be without Pedro Martinez until after the All-Star break, and they’re relying on an unheralded crew of John Maine, Oliver Perez, Chan Ho Park, and rookie prospect Mike Pelfrey to support the elderly-but-effective Tom Glavine and El Duque Hernandez. The Mets other strength lies in their deep bullpen. Although bullpens do tend to be unpredictable, the Mets seem to have assembled a strong corps in front of closer Billy Wagner. Unless the Mets find a way to address their thin rotation, I don’t see them making much noise in the playoffs. But I do think that a lineup-and-bullpen approach can work over 162 games.
2. Phillies. The Phils led the National League in runs scored last year but also gave up the third-most runs in the league. Their offense is in tact, powered by 2006 MVP Ryan Howard and future MVP candidate Chase Utley. Their rotation goes six deep with Brett Myers, Freddy Garcia, Jamie Moyer, Cole Hamels, Adam Eaton, and John Lieber, but their bullpen will be a problem for them in 2007. I think the Phils will contend and I don’t think the Mets will run away with the division again, but ultimately I think their lack of quality arms in the ‘pen will cut their season short.
3. Braves. The Braves intrigue me this year. They are finally entering the season with an established closer (Bob Wickman) and two capable setup men (Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano). They have their star slugger playing for a big contract extension (Andruw Jones). Despite age and injuries, a starting duo of John Smoltz and Tim Hudson still represent the division’s best top-line arms. Had Atlanta not had that dreadful month of June, when they went 6-21, people forget that the Braves scored the second-most runs in the NL last year. Just like the Phils – who I like better because their lineup has more depth – I think the Braves will be in this race all season long.
4. Marlins. The poor Marlins are dealing with all sorts of problems right now. Josh Johnson (12-7, 3.10) is injured. Taylor Tankersley is injured. Dontrelle Willis is coming off a cruddy season and an even worse off-season. The team miraculously contended last year but I’m not sure they’ll get as lucky this year. Outside of Miguel Cabrera, the lineup doesn’t boast a single player that can’t be pitched to. They do have some exciting young talent, including 2006 Rookie of the Year Hanley Ramirez, but I don’t think they have enough juice to finish much better than a few games under .500.
5. Nationals. Buster Olney reported that the Nationals have a chance to be the worst team in baseball history, eclipsing the 1962 Mets record of 40-120. Suffice it to say that you’ve never heard of half these guys and probably will never hear from them again in a couple of years. Ryan Zimmerman, Chad Cordero, and the always-injured Nick Johnson are about it for this team. It’ll be a long season for the Nats, but at least they’ll have a nice new ballpark to play in next year.
NL Central:
1. Cardinals. It’s a dull and uninspired choice but they do happen to have the game’s best hitter and the league’s second-best pitcher in Albert Pujols and Chris Carpenter. They lost nearly their entire rotation, their closer is coming back from surgery, and two-thirds of their starting outfield (Jim Edmonds, Juan Encarnacion) are injured right now so there’s a lot not to like. I think their GM is a dullard with no vision and even less in the way of balls. But in a division as poor as the NL Central, having an MVP candidate and a Cy Young candidate gives them an advantage that most teams don’t have. And Scott Rolen’s no slouch either.
2. Astros. Yes, another dull and uninspired choice. But in a division filled with charity cases, the short-term outlook still favors Houston because of a Berkman-Lee-Ensberg lineup and because an Oswalt-Jennings rotation is still better than most in the division. Their bullpen, despite Lidge’s failures last year, remains stocked with power arms. I don’t see the Astros contending much beyond 2008 if they don’t make some immediate changes in their lineup (really, how much longer can Craig Biggio hold back talents like Chris Burke and Hunter Pence?) but they can still stick around for one last run at October.
T3. Brewers. They were a sleeper pick last year and sucked. They’re a sleeper pick this year and I still think they’re going to suck. But it’s hard to argue with some of their talent on paper. Prince Fielder and Rickie Weeks are legitimate All-Star caliber players. Jeff Suppan is a suitable #3 starter behind Ben Sheets and Chris Capuano. Their bench is certainly deep, with guys like Kevin Mench and Laynce Nix adding depth. I think their bullpen is suspect and a young lineup can be too streaky to win consistently enough, but I think that in a division as bad as this, there’s no reason why they can’t be in the conversation until mid-August or early September.
T3. Cubs. The Cubs were downright awful last year, scoring the second-fewest, and giving up the second-most runs in the NL. While they made the biggest splash of the off-season, throwing money at Alfonso Soriano, Jason Marquis, Ted Lilly, and Aramis Ramirez, they still haven’t addressed the needs of their bullpen or, quite frankly, shored up their rotation enough to feel like this is a winning team. I do think that Lou Piniella is the type of manager that can squeeze results out of underqualified teams so I could see the Cubs sneaking up a little higher here but, in the end, they’re still relying on Mark Prior to pitch up to at least league-average standards.
5. Reds. By default, someone has to finish in this spot. The Reds do have some things to like: Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo are a decent discount 1-2 punch in the rotation. Adam Dunn is still the best pure power hitter in the division. Brandon Phillips and Edwin Encarnacion can take more positive steps this year towards becoming consistent players. The back end of their rotation is weak, their bullpen is filled with lots of older guys who are injured (Mike Stanton, Eddie Guardado, David Weathers) and, like many others, they don’t have much margin for error. They finished two games under .500 last year and I think they’ll be within that range again this year.
6. Pirates. The Pirates may, one day, get out of the cellar. They’ve certainly drafted enough top pitchers over the past few years (Zach Duke, Tom Gorzelanny) that they shouldn’t stink this badly. But, as is the problem with a lot of small market teams whose players don’t all pan out, there’s little margin for error here and the Pirates just don’t score enough runs to win on a consistent basis.
NL West:
1. Dodgers. The Dodgers are sort of an old-school NL team. They’re built entirely around pitching and speed and their offense seems to be an afterthought. They signed Juan Pierre and Luis Gonzalez, neither of which seemed to make much sense at the time. They’re still relying on Nomar Garciaparra and Jeff Kent, although it’s probably safe to say that at 33 and 39 respectively, given their recent injury issues, expectations should be tempered. The Dodgers do have some exciting young players coming up in the form of Russell Martin, James Loney, and Andre Ethier and their bullpen has definite star potential with Jonathan Broxton and Hong-Chih Kuo. I worry about their offense, but I think Jason Schmidt, Derek Lowe, and Brad Penny are enough at the top of the rotation to get them a division title. The big wildcard here is Grady Little. He’s among the worst in-game managers in baseball so you can always count on him to throw a grenade or two and foul everything up.
2. Diamondbacks. I was tempted to put them in the top spot but their offense has the potential to be as suspect as LA’s and they don’t have the benefit of as deep a bullpen. Their rotation has a couple of older guys – Livan Hernandez and Randy Johnson come to mind – but between them, Brandon Webb and Doug Davis, the D-Backs can expect their starters to work deep into games next year. There are lots of young hitters on this team: Chad Tracy, Conor Jackson, Carlos Quentin, and Stephen Drew. If a few of them can put it together this year, they might sneak up on people a year earlier than folks are predicting.
3. Padres. The Padres are kind of interesting. On the one hand, they have a deep rotation, with Peavy, Professor Maddux, Chris Young, and Boomer Wells pitching to a good defense in a hitter-unfriendly park. They will struggle to score runs (as they did last year) but any team that pitches as well as this team will be in the mix all year long. If nothing else, a rotation like that should prevent any extended losing streaks.
4. Giants. I really don’t like the construction of this team. They have very little in the way of talent on offense, their team is on the older side, and their bullpen might be among the worst in baseball. Swapping out Jason Schmidt for Barry Zito really doesn’t accomplish anything except make them more expensive. Barry Bonds will have a good season but there’s not much else going on here that would give me reason to be optimistic. They’ll make noise in the Wild Card race, but only because the league is lacking in runaway talent. This is the definition of a .500 team.
5. Rockies. I think the Rockies are finally on the right track. They’ve got some real talent that will be coming of age in the next two years and the future is brighter for them than it’s been since Don Baylor took them to the playoffs a decade ago. It’s not their time yet, but they won’t be much worse than a handful of games under .500.
Playoffs & Awards:
Mets, Cardinals, Dodgers, Diamondbacks (WC)
NL Pennant: Mets
NL MVP: Albert Pujols
NL Cy Young: Roy Oswalt
Next week – 2007 AL Preview
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