Gutsy's Biased NBA 2008 Playoff Preview

The year is 2008. And the NBA playoffs have never been as exhilarating, unpredictable, and exciting as this upcoming NBA playoffs! Typically in the NBA Playoffs, the exciting part is the anticipation of a great 2nd round matchup (e.g. Phoenix-San Antonio 2007, Dallas-San Antonio 2006) or the anticipation of the conference finals. This season, because of the depth of quality teams in the Western conference, every matchup is entirely unpredictable, and solid arguments can be made for any of the teams in the Western conference advancing or perishing in any of the rounds.

Western Conference
1-Lakers vs. 8-Denver – The Lakers have Kobe, Gasol, Lamar Odom, and spark-plugs off the bench in Walton, Radmonovic, and J. Farmar, plus, Coach Phil Jackson has a new hip, which will help him argue better with the referees (seriously, if you're sitting down, the refs just won't respect you). As for the Nuggets, they actually had 2 changes in the 2nd half to their lineup to help them make the playoff push (and beat out Golden State):

1) they started playing Anthony Carter at PG and

2) JR Smith started hitting his 3s at an even better clip than last season. Anthony Carter as a starting PG is one of the stranger developments for this season. He pretty much has been a journeyman, and I never even remember him excelling, even in his “better” days at Miami (they were never really great days to reminisce about). AC has been averaging a sick 10 assists per game, and even knocks down his shots if you tempt him. JR Smith is the biggest X-factor, because he is an extremely streaky 3-point shooter. He’s averaging like 16 ppg on 46% shooting from 3-point land in the 2nd half of the season… OFF THE BENCH. Yowsers. Of course the problem is that the Nuggets still don’t play defense and seem to go through the motions defensively.

Pick: Lakers in 5


4-Utah vs. 5-Houston- The Jazz started out the season a bit cold, like some kind of hangover from last season’s surprising conference finals run. However, since January, the Jazz have been one of the best in the league. They still are just as solid as last season, and they still have Deron Williams, Boozer, and their hard-nosed coach who is serving a life-term as coach and emperor of the Jazz, similar to a Supreme Court Justice. Another reason for the improved play? Mehmet Okur got out of his cold funk and started putting up great numbers in the 2nd half of the season. Meanwhile, as the Rockets were making their season-defining 22-game win streak, including 12 wins AFTER Yao was lost to injury, one thing kept going through my head: how would they ever adjust once they started losing games? The answer: not particularly well. The good news for the Rockets is that Coach Adelman has really changed the team quite rapidly. For those who don’t know: the Rockets are using a similar offensive system as the Kings did back in 2000-2003 when Adelman was coaching the Kings and the Kings had one of the best offenses. Actually, I read that the real reason that the Rockets unloaded bonzi wells at the trade deadline: it was to get PG Bobby Jackson, who was PG for 20+ minutes per game on those Kings’ teams. Jackson knows the offense, so Adelman felt more comfortable with having him chip in some minutes off the bench. Now that Rafer Alston is going to miss AT LEAST the first two games of the playoffs with a hamstring, Bobby Jackson's contributions will be very instrumental if the Rockets have even a prayer of advancing. Unfortunately, the Rockets made a big step forward this season, but I don’t believe it can translate to a playoff victory, short of Luis Scola playing out of his mind down low.
Pick: Jazz in 5

3-San Antonio vs. 6-Phoenix – Duncan. Shaq. Parker. Nash. Cue the John Tesh music!
The Suns have Nash, Amare Stoudemire, Raja Bell, Grant Hill, Shaq, Barbosa, and not a whole lot more after that.

Seriously though, there’s only one thing to say about this matchup: this is where the Suns lose and MJ loses “the bet.” For those who are unaware, “the bet” was made after the Shaq trade was consummated. Here are the details:
1) if the Phoenix Suns make the conference finals or do better: THEN MJ wins, and Gutsy Goldberg, a Cleveland Browns fan, has to write a serious article praising the Baltimore Ravens
2) if the Phoenix Suns lose in the 2nd or 1st round: THEN Gutsy Goldberg wins, and MJ, a New York Yankees fan, has to write a serious article "complimentary about Boston sports."
The Spurs are as good as always. I could write all day on their versatility, strengths, and lack of weaknesses. But in the end, there’s only one sure thing about the Spurs: they do not win championships in even-numbered years. There’s something psychological there, as if they just don’t exert the same amount of effort as they do in odd-numbered years. I'm really waffling on this one, but let's just assume a miracle happens and the Suns survive.

Pick: Suns in a game 7, triple OT buzzer-beater

2-New Orleans vs. 7-Dallas –
Dallas, took a giant step backwards at the trade deadline: when they got rid of Diop (who was splitting time at center) and speedy PG Devin Harris to pick-up the aging wonder, Jason Kidd. I stand by my analysis at the trading deadline: this was a dumb trade. It’s going to look even more dumb as Chris Paul runs wild on Jason Kidd (similar to how Tony Parker ran wild on the Cavs in last year’s finals when no one else was fast enough to keep up with him). The Hornets have been a huge surprise, even for those people cool enough to predict them to make the playoffs, no one could have predicted they would be a top-3 seed. Have to figure that the Hornets win unless Bonzi Wells starts a bench-clearing brawl resulting in Chris Paul being suspended.

Pick: Hornets in 6

2nd round –
1- Lakers vs. 4- Utah – This should be a fun one. Especially because I'm assuming the coaches hate each other. I also think it should be funny when Derek Fisher hits a game-winning 3 against Utah, his team from last year.
Pick: Lakers in 6

2-Hornets vs. 6-Suns– Chris Paul will make mince meat of Nash. More importantly, the Hornets have the big men (West, Chandler) to handle Amare and Shaq well enough to advance.
Pick: Hornets in 6


Conference Finals
1-Lakers vs. 2-Hornets – Lakers win. But, the rest of America will be stunned at the fine play of Chris Paul, Stojakovic, David West, and especially Tyson Chandler. Coach Byron Scott will get a chance at revenge, back from when his Nets got swept in the 2002 NBA Finals. If the Hornets pull off a miracle, it will be because Chandler may be the best defensive center in the league. More likely though, the Lakers advance yet again, unless Bonzi Wells starts a bench-clearing brawl and takes Kobe out with a double-axe handle followed by a steel chair to Kobe’s shooting hand.



Editor's Note: I considered having the Suns play the Lakers in the conference finals, just so that I could say "If there was any way for Shaq’s career to end, nothing would be more poetic than him getting schooled by Andrew Bynum, the man who was drafted to replace him!" Then I used logic and realized that would never happen because 1) Bynum probably isn't playing this postseason and 2) Shaq and the Suns aren't that good.

Eastern Conference
1-Boston vs. 8-Atlanta – Remember when Bird had that showdown with Dominique Wilkins in the playoffs? That was fun. As crazy as this sounds, I think the Hawks are going to actually make the Celtics sweat. Not sure how the Celtics are going to deal with the mobile, big-man in Josh Smith, or the man-child center of Al Horford. I also like the storyline of Joe Johnson going against the team that he started with.
Pick: Boston in 6.

4-Cleveland vs. 5-Washington – The Cavs have knocked out the Wizards the last 2 years. The Wizards will finally take this one, because the Cavs have been playing terribly for the last 20 games. No one’s been healthy, no one (other than Lebron, and even he has a bad back now) is in mid-season form and the Cavs’ blockbuster trade can only be successful if big-man Ben Wallace plays like 90% of his former self, not like a middle-aged man with a bad back.
#s before the trade for the Cavs (through 2/22): Record 31-24, Reb Margin, Point Differential: FG 43.9%, Opp. FG%, 3P 36.2%, Opp. 3P%
#s after the trade (from 2/23 through 4/12): Record 13-12, Reb Margin , Point Differential: 1.76; FG 44.0%, Opp. FG%, 3P 35.7%, Opp. 3P%

Editor's Note: I will fill these numbers in later, I couldn't find them anywhere surprisingly, and I already started a spreadsheet to calculate the numbers manually.

Pick: Wizards in 6.

3-Orlando vs. 6-Toronto – This should be the most fun series in the East. Who would have thought? Toronto has been atrocious since the All-star break but the losses mainly happened when Chris Bosh was injured. Meanwhile, Orlando has been relatively consistent all season, as Rashard Lewis has provided some points, and enough of a distratction defensively along with C Dwight Howard, to allow Turkoglu to have his best season.

Pick: Orlando in 6

2-Detroit vs. 7-Philly – The year after Iverson leaves, the 76ers still are able to make the playoffs! Even more surprising, the 76ers are actually one of the best teams in the NBA in the 2nd half! I actually think this will be a very entertaining series.

Pick: Detroit in 6.


2nd round
1-Boston vs. 5-Washington – Very interesting, because Washington played well against Boston this year, including back-to-back victories on consecutive days WITHOUT Arenas! Now with Arenas in the lineup though, Washington doesn’t have quite as much team spirit as they had during the season, as Arenas takes so many shots each night.
Pick: Boston in 7

2-Detroit vs. 3-Orlando – I think this will be an easier battle for the Pistons. Not sure how they are going to handle Dwight Howard. However, Orlando’s suspect PG play will result in a Pistons victory, and Orlando acquiring a new PG this off-season, as Jameer Nelson has not been very good nor has his backup.
Pick: Detroit in 5


Conference Finals
1-Boston vs. 2-Detroit – Screw Boston.
Pick: Detroit in 6


NBA Finals
1-Lakers vs 2- Detroit – A classic matchup, happening for the 3rd time since 1989. No one has the horses to deal with the Lakers. Not w/ Kobe, Gasol, and Lamar Odom. It will be really funny if they win, considering I'm assuming they won't even get Bynum back. And it won't even matter! I would even choose the Lakers over Boston, despite Boston’s gaudy 25-5 record against the West.

Pick: Lakers