Monday, April 21, 2008

NBA and Probabilities

I saw a statistic flash across my teevee which noted that in the NBA the team that won game 1 went on to win the series about 70-80% of the time. Now I'm sure there's lots of reasons for that but the bottom line then is that after game 1 only about 1-2 of the teams that lost, on average, should be expected to rebound. So who are the most likely to win the series after losing?

1) Detroit
Detroit is obviously lazy, complacent and headed by a coach who obviously gets confused by shiny objects. That said it did have the second best record in the East for a reason. I think Philadelphia matches up well with its length and speed but its inside game still leaves something to be desired. An under-reported fact was that Andre Miller abused Chauncy Billups which will be the key to the series

2) Phoenix
Yes I know the Spurs always seem to win against the Suns but before painting too dire of a picture lets remember that San Antonio needed a come behind 2 OT with Duncan hitting a 3 to win a game at HOME. Its a long series and a Phoenix win in game 2 suddenly swings the big MO in a major way.

3) Dallas
Dallas still has experience and Dirk. That has to count for something? Right? Hello is this thing on?

4) Washington
Yes I know they're down 2-0 now but the other teams with losses don't have a prayer. The hard fouling Wizards team just needs an injury to Lebron or Arenas to get back into this series. Seriously is there any one player thats caused bigger problems for the Wiz than Arenas? If the Cavs play the way they did in Game 2 not only is this series done but they'll test Boston in a major way.

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