Wednesday, June 09, 2010

College Expansion : The Center Can Not Hold

While I'm not sure if Yeats is the right person to quote (well maybe if you are KU) it's being widely reported tonight that Nebraska will be in fact joining the Big 10. While there is an outside shot that Nebraska will be jilted at the last second (with Notre Dame stopping the wedding) let us assume that ESPN and others are right and Big Red will joining the Big 10. Now that raises a number of questions so let us see if we can at least get to the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns.


Why Nebraska?
It's actually more than just money, but money is a big deal. Contrary to common (my) belief, Nebraska football is a prized commodity. According to Forbes Nebraska's football program is #4 on its most valuable list. In 2009 it brought in $93 million for a profit of $49 million. For comparison, Ok State's football program (which made more than Missouri) made $18 million. To further drive home the point Kansas' basketball program brought in $16 million and a profit of $8.3 million.

However on top of the money, there is an entire backstory about Nebraska and Tom Osborne in particular being unhappy with Texas so there's a certain glee for Osborne to stick the shiv into Texas - who preferred the Big 12 to stay intact.

What Does That Mean for the Big 12?
According to multiple sources....The Big 12 is finished. As in dead, dead. At last report Colorado is all but out the door and headed to the Pac 10. This is where things start becoming known unknowns. The Big 10 and Pac will fight over Texas, the crown jewel of College Football (profit wise) The Pac 10 will reportedly offer (in addition to Colorado) bids to Texas, A&M, OU, Ok State and Texas Tech to form a new Super 16 team conference. However there are rumors that the Big 10 will also make a push for a number of Big 12 schools. In fact they would push for Texas, Missouri, A&M, and Notre Dame - which might be enough to entice all as the profit possibilities seem fairly astronomical. So the short answer is the Big 10 and Pac 10 will start picking at the soon to deceased body of the Big 12

What about Politics?
This is where the unknown unknowns start. That's the political realms. For a number of reasons the Texas legislature/Governor have some influence on where Texas goes. There will be significant pressure to force the Pac 10 or Big 10 (or SEC) to include a package of schools with Texas (i.e. if you take Texas you have to take A&M and Tech) The deal breaker might be if they chain Texas to Baylor (a very Conservative Christian school) in which case liberal leaning UC-Berkley might veto the entire thing if they have to share the conference with Baylor. Similarly it's unlikely for the Big 10 to accept Texas Tech give its poor academic leanings. So it's possible the Big 12 will limp along but more likely someone will back down and Texas will leave - thus ending the Big 12.

What is My Guess at the Future?
At almost every turn in the expansion process, the almost unthinkable turned to possible turned to reality so making guesses is hard. If I had to guess I'm guessing that UT will uncouple itself from Baylor and alongside Tech, A&M, OU, and Ok State will help make the Pac-16 a reality. As to the Big 10, Jim Delaney (Commissioner of the Big 10) has said expansion will go in phases. Phase I is Nebraska and a conference championship game. If the Big 10 get's the right teams it's entirely possible it'll expand to 14 or 16. Notre Dame/Texas tops the list but Missouri, Rutgers, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, and Maryland are possibilities. If I had to guess it's all on Notre Dame. If Notre Dame joins the Big 10 will balloon up to 16 (if only because the threat of ballooning will be the catalyst to Notre Dame joining) if ND says no...the Big 10 will stay pat....for the time being.



5 comments:

Gutsy Goldberg said...

Things change so rapidly every day! My prediction for today: the Big 10 will go for 16 teams if only because the PAC 10 is becoming the PAC-16. So... for now, I'll go with Missouri, Pitt, Maryland, and Notre Dame. I don't have revenue projections, but that would be a nice group of markets for the Big 10 (plus all solid football programs). For fun, here are my Big 10 divisions:
East:
1) Ohio St
2) Michigan
3) Michigan St
4) Penn State
5) Notre Dame
6) Pitt
7) Maryland
8) Indiana (or Purdue?)
West:
1) Wisconsin
2) Iowa
3) Minnesota
4) Illinois
5) Purdue (or Indiana?)
6) Northwestern
7) Nebraska
8) Missouri

Mighty Mike said...

1) I think what makes the most sense (and my hope) is that Missouri and Notre Dame join and expansion stops there.

2) While your alignment makes sense geographically it makes less sense from a competitive balance standpoint. PSU, OSU, and Michigan are going to have be divided up given who they are . My guess is because of the rivalry OSU and Michigan will be in one division and PSU in the other...

Gutsy Goldberg said...

as soon as i divied them up, it became clear that i have a super-division (osu, michigan, penn st, notre dame). i say leave it be as a geographic thing, rather than make some bizarre arbitrary decision on who's good and who's not (which changes all the time).

Mighty Mike said...

I don't think it's arbitrary to note that osu, michigan, penn state, notre dame are better and bigger than anyone else. There's about 100 years of history to back that up. Even if you ignore their records , the ratings of the games of the major teams are more than enough reason to divide the biggest schools.

This division could especially be important as its possible that both division winners get automatic BCS/playoff bids....

Gutsy Goldberg said...

okay... so if you divide up in some bizarre way of balance, here's my first attempt (while keeping rivalries together as much as possible), and focusing on Ohio St-Michigan - Pitt vs Penn State, Notre Dame, Nebraska (new school)

Division A
1) Ohio St
2) Michigan
3) Michigan St
4) Minnesota (not Penn State)
5) Illinois (not Notre Dame)
6) Pitt
7) Maryland
8) Indiana (or Purdue?)
Division B
1) Wisconsin
2) Iowa
3) Penn State (not Minnesota)
4) Notre Dame (not Illinois)
5) Purdue (or Indiana?)
6) Northwestern
7) Nebraska
8) Missouri