Hart posted a comment last week, alleging that I had my "rematch" stats wrong, and that he had never heard of such a fictional myth, that the team that lost the first game often won the rematch. I wanted to respond to Hart’s allegation, and in my initial internet search, I found nothing. Then, I tried really hard to remember my source. And when I remembered, it was based on some small box I read in Sports Illustrated in like 1991. This is a superstition that I have been holding on to for a very long time. Since I haven’t exactly been stellar of late in picking NFL games, because 1991 is only the 2nd year of the current 12-team format, and because a journalist relying on a 15-year old stat is just preposterous, I decided to undertake some research and see what has been happening the last 15 years.
The good news, my other rules were right on the money: teams that have won twice win a 3rd 75% of the time, teams playing in consecutive weeks alternate winning and losing 75% of the time, and 8-8 teams are terrible (only winning 25% of the time, and both wins were last season).
However, Rule 1, which I have stood by blindly for the last 15 years is completely and utterly WRONG, as the team that loses the first game only wins 39% of the time. It’s like finding out I’ve actually been working for Cobra Commander the whole time and didn’t even realize it. It’s like finding out that Santa Claus, Hanukkah Harry, and the Tooth Fairy don’t exist. I repeat, over the last 15 years, teams that WON the 1st game, win the 2nd game 61% of the time! So, this article is an apology to all the readers, and to all the Back Seat Driver fans who I have misled over the last year with Rule 1.
Just to be clear, and to reaffirm my credibility, the rest of the rules checked out. And, in case you were wondering, my NCAA rules are all based on my own crazy spreadsheets that I update each year. The moral of the story is that you can’t hang onto superstitions for over 15 years without even checking if they are based on reality.
Anyways, I realize this could have changed my picks to some degree, but, I basically went 50-50 this year in my application of Rule 1 (going with rematch-winners in the AFC, and losers in the NFC), so we’ll see how it plays out. The first week already paid dividends with my Redskins pick. On to the games…
Pittsburgh @ Indy – I’m staying the course, and going with the Colts. Beating up on a suspect Bengal defense is one thing. Indy is too balanced to not intercept and disrupt the Steelers.
Pick: Indy
New England @ Denver – Unlike most of America, I’m going to go with the Denver homefield advantage. The Patriots defense is definitely playing on a different level of late and I applaud that. However, I feel that Denver’s running attack should still be able to succeed even with the full New England defense on the field in the rematch. Denver should be able to find a way by feasting on the energy of its fans.
Pick: Denver
Carolina @ Chicago- Last time, Steve Smith had 170 yards yet the Panthers only put up 3 points due to 3 turnovers. I’m sticking with the Panthers because, well, I’m biased and just don’t respect the Bears to muster enough offense (sorry Hart). Granted, these two teams may have the top 2 defenses remaining in the playoffs (arguably), which means whoever creates more turnovers will win. Wow, did I just pull a Bill Walton? It almost sounds like I just said “whoever scores more points will win.”
Pick: Carolina
Washington @ Seattle – There’s no way the Redskins are going to survive another week with that kind of anemic offense. Seattle just needs to control the long-ball and contain Santana Moss and they will move on. (If Tampa can figure out how to stop Portis, I’m assuming Seattle also will contain him.)
Pick: Seattle
Last Week: 4-0
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