Our dear friend Colonel Sanders posed an interesting series of questions. Unfortunately it was buried below other postings so I don't know if others saw it. I’ve chosen to paraphrase the questions and attempt to answer them in order:
“What about Ichiro and Jeter? What about Biggio? Also, do you think that if you have 3000+ hits you should be guaranteed a spot in the HOF?”
I’ll start with Ichiro. Ichiro will be 32 years old at the start of the 2006 season which is typically the beginning of the downward trajectory for sluggers but still in the middle of prime years for slap hitters who rely on making contact and spraying the ball to all fields. Although this is far from scientific evidence, Wade Boggs hit .300 six more times after his 32nd birthday, Tony Gwynn hit .300 until he turned 41 years old and Ted Williams hit .300 six out of the final seven years of his career after turning 32 years old. Therefore, I’m going to conservatively estimate that Ichiro will be able to play six more years in the big leagues. If we take Ichiro’s career averages and pull them out through the 2011 season, he’ll finish with 2510 hits, 424 steals and 1235 runs created. These are completely unscientific predictions because his speed will likely diminish over time, meaning the steals might be off and he may not beat out some infield hits or bunts. However, assuming no injuries and the full retention of his skill set through that 2011 seasons, his stats still come up short when measured against the best of the best. I assume that his Gold Gloves, MVP award, batting titles and record-setting hit totals during his decade of play will sway some voters but probably not enough to make it into Cooperstown.
Using the same unscientific approach for Jeter, I will assume that he will play five more seasons, meaning through his 36th birthday. He projects out to 258 HR, 2966 hits and 1569 runs created. Discounting for a moment his Rookie of the Year, World Series rings, Gold Gloves and other peripheral individual achievements, I think Jeter will make it on the merit of being a likely 3000 hit candidate and finishing, according to these unscientific estimates, ahead of Andre Dawson on the all-time runs created list. I think Jeter will make it as much for his stats as for the fact that he is the face of baseball – the most recognizable and marketable player in the game right now.
Moving onto Biggio, I think he’s two seasons away from being a mortal lock but could probably make it in now if voters were willing to abstain from inhaling ether before each vote. Biggio is at 260 HR and 2795 hits, meaning that he has a good chance to join the 300 HR/3000 hit club, of which there are nine members, seven of whom are in the Hall of Fame, and the other two (Ripken, Palmiero) are not yet eligible. It would seem to me that if you’re on a list with Musial, Yastrzemski, Aaron, Winfield and guys like that, you belong in Cooperstown.
Which brings me to Colonel’s final question – should 3000 hits automatically qualify a player for enshrinement? This question brings up individual thoughts on longevity and the role it plays in such a debate. I’m inclined to say that 3000 hits shouldn’t automatically qualify a player only because I don’t think anyone or anything should trigger an “automatic.” However, if a player has achieved something that only 26 others have achieved over the course of baseball history, that’s a testament to more than just hanging around for a while – you’ve got to be pretty special to get 3000 hits in a career.
“What about Ichiro and Jeter? What about Biggio? Also, do you think that if you have 3000+ hits you should be guaranteed a spot in the HOF?”
I’ll start with Ichiro. Ichiro will be 32 years old at the start of the 2006 season which is typically the beginning of the downward trajectory for sluggers but still in the middle of prime years for slap hitters who rely on making contact and spraying the ball to all fields. Although this is far from scientific evidence, Wade Boggs hit .300 six more times after his 32nd birthday, Tony Gwynn hit .300 until he turned 41 years old and Ted Williams hit .300 six out of the final seven years of his career after turning 32 years old. Therefore, I’m going to conservatively estimate that Ichiro will be able to play six more years in the big leagues. If we take Ichiro’s career averages and pull them out through the 2011 season, he’ll finish with 2510 hits, 424 steals and 1235 runs created. These are completely unscientific predictions because his speed will likely diminish over time, meaning the steals might be off and he may not beat out some infield hits or bunts. However, assuming no injuries and the full retention of his skill set through that 2011 seasons, his stats still come up short when measured against the best of the best. I assume that his Gold Gloves, MVP award, batting titles and record-setting hit totals during his decade of play will sway some voters but probably not enough to make it into Cooperstown.
Using the same unscientific approach for Jeter, I will assume that he will play five more seasons, meaning through his 36th birthday. He projects out to 258 HR, 2966 hits and 1569 runs created. Discounting for a moment his Rookie of the Year, World Series rings, Gold Gloves and other peripheral individual achievements, I think Jeter will make it on the merit of being a likely 3000 hit candidate and finishing, according to these unscientific estimates, ahead of Andre Dawson on the all-time runs created list. I think Jeter will make it as much for his stats as for the fact that he is the face of baseball – the most recognizable and marketable player in the game right now.
Moving onto Biggio, I think he’s two seasons away from being a mortal lock but could probably make it in now if voters were willing to abstain from inhaling ether before each vote. Biggio is at 260 HR and 2795 hits, meaning that he has a good chance to join the 300 HR/3000 hit club, of which there are nine members, seven of whom are in the Hall of Fame, and the other two (Ripken, Palmiero) are not yet eligible. It would seem to me that if you’re on a list with Musial, Yastrzemski, Aaron, Winfield and guys like that, you belong in Cooperstown.
Which brings me to Colonel’s final question – should 3000 hits automatically qualify a player for enshrinement? This question brings up individual thoughts on longevity and the role it plays in such a debate. I’m inclined to say that 3000 hits shouldn’t automatically qualify a player only because I don’t think anyone or anything should trigger an “automatic.” However, if a player has achieved something that only 26 others have achieved over the course of baseball history, that’s a testament to more than just hanging around for a while – you’ve got to be pretty special to get 3000 hits in a career.
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