I don't know what made me think of this - but since baseball's greats are on stage tomorrow night, here's the issue: Which active major leaguers are likely to be first-ballot Hall of Famers? This isn't asking who will (or should) make the Hall; rather the question is which of today's players are so good that they'll get the added and rare honor of getting into Cooperstown on their first try. Set aside, for a moment, any feelings you have on how the same player isn't good enough in Year 1 or 2 but makes it in Year 3 (I'll save that for another day). So who's the greatest of the great?
Sure Things: Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Alex Rodriguez, Rafael Palmeiro. The three pitchers are obvious. A-Rod's still young, but there's no reason why he won't continue being great. I know some people don't put Raffy in the Hall, but I have a hard time believing that 25% of the voters will keep out someone with his credentials in any year.
Possibilities: Mike Piazza, Ivan Rodriguez, Mariano Rivera, Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Ken Griffey Jr, Curt Schilling, Tom Glavine. The catchers are here because it's hard to figure out what the Hall will do with catchers. Both guys will get in - but whereas Johnny Bench was inducted on his first try, it took Carlton Fisk (the original Pudge) three or four years. Whether Rivera makes it in year 1 depends on when he retires and whether, by then, the BBWAA has gotten over its fear of closers. Mariano's deserving of enshrinement, and he's been so good for so long that he deserves to be in on the first ballot. As for Bonds and Sosa, watch carefully when McGwire's name first comes up. There's been talk of backlash against suspected steroid abusers. If Big Mac gets in on his try, or close to it, Barry and Sammy have a chance; if not, forget it. Junior's chances depend on how he finishes his career. I wouldn't bet on his getting in on the first ballot, but you never know. I'm pretty sure Schilling's a HOFer, and his numbers, when the day is done, may reflect first-ballot worthiness. I kind of doubt Glavine, but he's another one who can pack his bags one day for the Hall.
Who am I missing?
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11 comments:
I would add Randy Johnson (#3 on all time SOs) to that list. If we were to use your A-Rod methodology (e.g. projected greatness) I would add Albert Pujols (sure he's young but his first 5 years have to be among the greatest first 5 years ever).
I would also probably switch the likelihood of Palmeiro and Griffey Jr. Palmeiro (at least now) has better numbers but was never the greatest player in the league. Griffey was and at least that publicity gives him an edge over Palmeiro (I would add the rumors whether true or not of Palmeiros steriod use may also hurt him)
As my dark horse candidate (sorry theme of the week) I would throw in Manny Rameriz. When his career is over my guess is he'll have over 500 home runs (he has 412 ) , already at 1350 RBI (with no reason he can't average 80-100 RBIs for at least 3 seasons) and he is a career .318 batter. Given that hes 32/33 and a few more years left in him I think Manny is in a good position. Or at minimum a possibility.
I realized that I forgot Unit before I saw your post, Mikey. He's obviously a first-ballot guy.
Ramirez is definitely on track to get into the Hall. You're right in pinning his first-ballot hopes on his next few seasons.
If Pujols is half the player for the rest of his career that he has been thus far, he'll get more votes than anyone in history. But he's still too young to seal the deal. As Mr. Griffey can tell you, a lot can happen between now and then.
I still don't see why anyone thinks that someone that will have 3000+ hits and over 600 HRs doesn't deserve to be in the HOF. There are only two other players in history that have that stat. Looking over him is a travesty. Another person to remember is the short fat soft spoken man from San Diego who has the best swing since Ted Williams and should be teaching every young hitter how you don't need speed to get on the bags.
Also if you put in Tommy G, what about Smoltzy?? He was as good as Tommy G and Maddux in the height of his career and then became the Braves premier closer and was a 50 save guy.
Smoltz ought to make it, but I think in terms of first-ballot chances, his stint as a closer actually hurt him, for reasons I described in the original post. That said, Eck was a first-ballot inductee - but I think Smoltz will be viewed a slight shade below him, rightly or wrongly.
Gwynn wasn't included because he's not active. Obviously, he and Cal Ripken Jr. are getting in on the first vote.
Derek Jeter will be a first-ballot HoF'er, without question. The BBWAA vote on winning as much as they do on stats and the stats are pretty damn good, if you look at them. Jeter rates favorably among any of the groups that you might categorize him in. Yankee haters may not like it but Cooperstown is going to love him.
I think Piazza will enter on the first ballot because his offensive statistics relative to his position are beyond anything that Bench and Yogi did and those 2 guys are considered the benchmark (no pun intended).
I also think Barry Bonds will go in on the first try. He's a filthy cheating scumbag but he's won 7 MVP's and was the best player in baseball at the beginning of the 90's, before the juicing and the inflated homer totals. He was a 5-tooler for most of his career.
Finally, another guy I think you forgot as a first ballot entrant is Pedro Martinez. He's 8 wins from 200, has a career 2.71 ERA, and nearly 2800 k's (and counting).
In his absolute prime (1997-2003) he was not only the most dominant pitcher in the American League, he never registered an ERA higher than 2.89. Here are his averages for that seven year span:
17 W/5 L/.772 WP%/201 IP/2.22 ERA/252 K's
His 1999 season is one for the ages that compares favorably with any of Koufax's or Gibson's monster years in the 60's and those were done in the most pitching-friendly time since the Dead Ball Era. He had pinpoint command of five pitches (2-seam, 4-seam, change, curve, slider) and could give you a legitmate shot at a no-hitter every time out. If that isn't a Hall of Famer, I don't know what is.
I forgot to weigh in on some of the others...
Neither Glavine or Smoltz will be first-ballot HoF'ers. Both were good but neither were ever considered the best pitcher in the game for more than their Cy Young seasons. Glavine's a lock to go in after a 1 or 2 year wait since his 200+ wins put him near the top of the all time win list. No more 300 game winners for a LONG time, folks.
Schilling has probably pitched himself into the first ballot with the 2001 and 2004 post season efforts. Otherwise, he's been a good but not consistently dominant starter.
Manny's on track to be a first-try shoo-in. He's piling up the HR, the AVG is awesome and he's the best RBI machine since Gehrig. That man never fails with men on base. It's amazing.
I won't mention Pujols since he's only 4 years into a career. He's on track but wouldn't get in if he quit today.
ARod's a lock. Not only was he shaping up to be the best offensive SS ever but if he plays out his contract, he can rank among the best offensive 3B ever, too. There's no reason why he can't pop another 200 HR over the next 5 years, retire at 35 and have 600+ career HR. That's being conservative.
Griffey would probably get in on the first try although it's really dicey. His stats are definitely there with the 500 homers and the fact that he was, without question, the best player in his league and #1 or #2 overall for the entire decade of the 90's. He compares favorably to Mikey Mantle in that injuries completely slowed down a legitimate drive to 700 homers.
Finally, Raffy, Mac and Sosa. All three are tied to steroids. For the most part, Raffy had never been thought of in that way and I think he'll come away cleanly. He's joining the prestigious 600 HR/3000 H club sometime next season (he's 2 hits and 34 HR away) and only Willie Mays and Hank Aaron are in that club. It's a no-brainer. Personally, I think Mac will make it despite the BALCO stuff. I don't see Sosa being so lucky. There was always an undercurrent of negativity swirling around Sosa and the incidents with the bat-cork, the exit from Chicago, the interview with the SI reporter who played a game of steroids chicken...all in all, Sosa waits a year or two. Double standard, but still my gut feeling.
My money's on fan-favorite Albert Belle.
I forgot about Joey Belle. His stats from 1993-1998 are truly staggering and are book-ended by pretty darn good 1992 and 1999 seasons, to boot. During that 6 season stretch when he was the best cleanup hitter in baseball (in my opinion), his OPS was 1.012. AMAZING. Unfortunately he didn't do it for quite long enough and his career totals don't reflect 1st ballot status. Throw in the worst personality in baseball besides Barry Bonds and you've got a guy that won't get the sympathy vote. I don't know if Joey Belle ever makes it. And no, I'd never call him 'Joey' to his face.
Also, I didn't see that Hart listed Pedro in his initial list. If I'd seen it, I wouldn't have gone into such a detailed defense of his credentials.
PS -- What do I win for being the 10th comment?
With the record setting comment, this website has shifted from a blog to an online magazine with comments. Congrats everyone, we are making progress.
For the record the 1995 MVP award going to Mo Vaughn over Belle was one of the great injustices in baseball.
Another active player (well in the minor leagues at least) is Rickey Henderson who is a definite first rounder. I think we all overlook him and forget that he is still playing minor league ball, hoping to get a chance at the big leagues again. The 1st place leader in Runs and SB will definately see Cooperstown.
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