Well as this intrepid columnists continues his expedition through the NFL preseason I thought it would be appropriate to look at the flip side of darkhorses, the previous year's playoff teams that are heading back down to the pack. Newton's law of sports - for every team that wins this year that didn't win last year, means that a previous holder of a playoff spot is getting squeezed out. So let's take a look at the possible teams that aren't going to do as well this year or as I like to call them "The Newtons"
1). Green Bay - Somehow Green Bay managed to win the NFC North. And by somehow I mean a Minnesota collapse (again) and 2 other teams that had less consistency than my attempt at Jello. This year Farve is another year older, they lost 2 offensivelineman, they have 6 man battle royal to replace the departed safety Darren Sharper (having 6 people compete for two positions basically means you have nobody in the secondary) and worse yet Favre's main wide receiver is holding out. Add in an improved Minnesota/Detroit team and a Chicago team that may be able to throw the ball and it looks like Green Bay is in bad shape.
2) Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh had an incrediable run last year, mostly being propelled by an outstanding defense and a rookie performance for the ages (All Big Ben does is win games). But they too have lost 2 offensive lineman, their only big target and Ben's favorite target is gone (who happens to be same person person in the form Plaxico Burress), and Ben might be facing the dreaded sophmore slump. Pittsburgh might get the to playoffs but a Super Bowl contender they might not be.
3) Seattle - I'm applying the Sacremento King principal here (I'm just inventing terms left and right they may or not have any connection to reality or as I'm now calling it, "pulling a Bill Simmons"). If a team can't break through to win the big games, evantually they fall on their face. I think for Seattle that might be the case. Their top running back (Alexander), a notoriously selfish player, might give TO a run for his money for the me-first award before the year is over.
4) New England - Now hear me out. I'm not saying New England won't be good. Heck I'm not even saying that New England won't win their division. However they are the defending champs and anything below winning the Super Bowl is by definition a step back for them. They've lost their top two coordinators. Both were highly involved in the planning, strategizing and helping Tom Brady roast his marshmellows (Brady needs his marshmellows to keep a level head). Add in a missing Teddi Bruschi for the year and suddenly a lot of the pieces that kept the Patriots machine going look a lot wobblier. I can't underestimate Belichek but this will be his finest coaching job if the Patriots win another championship.
5) San Diego - You don't go from 4-12 to 12-4 in one year and not have a few question marks hanging over your head. Is Drew Brees for real? Can Martyball continue to score points to keep up with KC or Oakland? And where are my pants?
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4 comments:
I'm in complete agreement with your light cows (I guess that's the logical opposite of dark horses?). However, I do have a few thoughts of my own here:
I don't see how/why everyone's in love with the Minnesota Vikings. They've added several bodies on defense, sure, but it was never their D that was a problem. Their problem was the collapses they always seem to have when the stakes are high. Those are Mike Tice's fault and, last I checked, he's still the head coach there. As long as Tice's the man there, they will never go further than the first round of the playoffs. Also, you can't let go of Moss, lose Onterrio Smith to drug suspension and expect the offense not to suffer dramatically. If the D is one TD better, the offense is one TD worse so I'd say you're net even as a 9-7 team with no guts when it counts.
As for the Chargers, I have exactly zero dollars bet on them this year. Marty's the poster child for coaches that didn't deserve a fourth chance after managing to show nothing during chances two and three. I throw this team in with the Vikes -- as long as Marty's on the sidelines, they don't get out of the first round (if they make it that far).
I think the Chargers still end up winning the division --- and then losing in the 1st round again. Marty is all about coaching well in the regular season, and making ZERO adjustments in the postseason.
I have to add 1 team as a "light horse" / "Newton". The NY Jets. They actually were not that good during the 2nd half of the season last year. In addition, I'm going to make up a new theory here: when you have a RB who has a career year at an older age, he always comes back to earth the next year. I'm talking about Curtis Martin. There's no way he matches last year's performance, and this year, there's no Lamont Jordan to rely on as a quality substitute.
I agree with Gutsy on the Jets. C-Mart is a great RB but he's probably not as good as those stats from 2004 and no Lamont Jordan means no plays off. Derrick Blalock will find that running behind the Jets line isn't the same as running behind the KC line. Also, one more thing. I'm not convinced that Chad Pennington is the real deal. I've seen him have good games but I just don't think he's the guy that will bring back images of Joe Willie Namath. That whole episode when he fought with the media last year -- he came off looking a little crazy. The Jets WR's aren't too good either. No playoffs for the Jets this year.
I agree on the all aboard the Minnesota train when they still have Tice (I mean who could've thought having a Moss option run/throw in the red zone was a good idea). However the additions of defense and the lack of Moss I think this team is better then they were last year.
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