Friday, January 05, 2007

Baseball In The New Year

This is my first baseball post of 2007 and I’m already feeling like baseball’s around the corner. Only 41 days until pitchers and catchers report to spring training!

1. Randy Johnson. After much back and forth, and after the San Diego Padres submitted an 11th hour trade offer, the Yanks agreed in principle to send RJ back from whence he game, in exchange for a D-backs RHP relief pitcher Luis Vizcaino and three minor leaguers: RHP’s Ross Ohlendorf and Steven Jackson and SS Alberto Gonzalez.

I’d give the Yanks a B or B- grade on this trade. The upside is that they shed another $14M in payroll (RJ’s 2007 salary, minus $2M being sent to Arizona in the trade). Considering the luxury tax implications of the Yankees’ recent payroll, shedding $14M in contract money is more like realizing a savings of $17M. Furthermore, the Yanks continue to stockpile minor league talent. Although none of the three minor leaguers were rated in the top 10 in Arizona’s system (the kids came in at 18, 19, and 20), it’s never bad to add young pitching to a system that is now suddenly replenished with arms at the AA and AAA levels. Between the Johnson and Sheffield trades, the Yanks added five young arms in exchange for $29M in payroll for 2007.

The only parts of the trade I don’t like for the Yanks are: a) they probably could’ve gotten better prospects had they been willing to send more cash to Arizona, b) their rotation, on paper, became slightly more questionable going into spring training, and c) Luis Vizcaino is not a useful relief pitcher for New York. He was ineffective for the Chicago White Sox in 2005 and has shown that he’s more suited to the light-hitting National League.

2. Doug Mientkiewicz. The Yanks also signed Doug Mientkiewicz to a one year, $1.5M contract to be their regular first baseman. Mientkiewicz is a no-hit defensive specialist. I’m not crazy about this move because “Minky”, although still above-average, is no longer considered a superb defender. Putting him out there for 550 AB’s is like putting a backup catcher out there every day. He’ll kill rallies and be a drag on the offense. My hope is that his defensive abilities will make me forget about all of his woefully ineffective AB’s but the reality is that defense at first base is pretty close to irrelevant. In short, it wasn’t a move that had to be made but I suppose this isn’t a big deal in the grand scheme of things – the Yanks aren’t winning or losing the division based on what Doug Mientkiewicz brings to the table.

3. Joel Piniero. The Boston Red Sox signed the former Seattle Mariner to a one year, $5M contract and will give Piniero the chance to win the closer’s job in spring training. While closers remain an overrated commodity, there is no denying that stability in the bullpen is a major factor in success during the regular season and the playoffs. The Red Sox have totally remade their bullpen this winter, moving Jonathan Papelbon to the starting rotation and importing Brendan Donnelly and JC Romero from the Minnesota Twins. Those two, together with Piniero, Mike Timlin and Julian Tavarez will form the main crux of the Red Sox relief corps.

Piniero has suffered a massive drop-off in performance since going 16-11 in 2003. However, he is still young, having only turned 28 a few months ago. Furthermore, after being demoted from the rotation late in the 2006 season, Piniero seemed to take to relief duty, posting impressive splits as a reliever vs. as a starter. Case in point, his metrics in ERA, WHIP, K/9, BAA, and BABiP improved:

As starter – 6.62/ 1.72/ 4.2/ .326/ .343
As reliever – 4.81/ 1.19/ 7.3/ .213/ .242

There’s no telling if Piniero will take to his role as closer. But there seems to be some evidence to suggest that he might make an effective reliever. And for one year, with only $5M invested, it seems like a low-risk move for the Red Sox.

No comments: