Tuesday, October 06, 2009

Analysis of 6, 7, or 8 Superpowers

Earlier in the week, I had done an analysis on whether the 5 "Superpowers" in the NBA (Lakers, Magic, Cavs, Celtics, Spurs) were better than any other set of 5-teams in the modern history of the NBA. I used the Simple Rating System on Basketball Reference.com to provide a tool for a more objective view of the different years.

After reading through some of the feedback on Pro Sports Daily in regards to the article, I decided to take a look at what it would take to be the best 6-team set, 7-team-set, or 8-team set of "Superpowers" (i.e. what season is most stacked and has the best 6-teams? 7-teams? 8-teams?) This would help Portland, Denver, and Dallas also get included in the challenge of being the best ever.






Here are the best:
#1 1996-1997 Season
6-team Average SRS: 7.018
7-team Avg SRS: 6.565
8-team Avg SRS: 6.203
Bulls = 10.7 (Jordan, Pippen, Rodman);
Jazz=7.97 (Stockton, Malone);

Sonics=6.91 (Payton, Kemp, D. Schrempf);

Heat=5.56 (T. Hardaway, Mourning, J. Mashburn, D. Majerle);

Hawks=5.52 (S. Smith, Laetnner's All-star season, Mookie Blaylock, Dikembe Mutumbo)

6) Pistons = 5.45 (G. Hill, J. Dumars, L. Hunter, Otis Thorpe)
7) Rockets = 3.85 (Barkley, Olajuwon, Drexler, M. Elie - they were all older though)

8) Lakers = 3.66 (Shaq (51 games), Kobe (rookie season = 15 min/gm), Eddie Jones, Van Exel)


#2 1995-1996 Season
6-team Average SRS: 6.837
7-team Avg SRS: 6.303
8-team Avg SRS: 5.826
Bulls = 10.7 (Jordan, Pippen, Rodman);
Jazz=7.97 (Stockton, Malone);

Sonics=6.91 (Payton, Kemp, D. Schrempf);

Heat=5.56 (T. Hardaway, Mourning, J. Mashburn, D. Majerle);

Hawks=5.52 (S. Smith, Laetnner's All-star season, Mookie Blaylock, Dikembe Mutumbo)

6) Lakers = 4.21 (C. Ceballos All-star season, Van Exel, Magic Johnson for 30 games, Divac, E. Jones)
7) Pacers = 3.10 (R. Miller, R. Smits, D. McKey, D. Davis, M. Jackson)

8) Cavs = 2.49 (T. Brandon, Mills, Phills, Ferry, D. Majerle, Tyrone Hill)


#3 2007-2008 Season
6-team Average SRS: 6.798
7-team Avg SRS: 6.556
8-team Avg SRS: 6.341
Celtics = 9.31 (KG, Pierce, Ray Allen, Rondo)
Lakers = 7.34 (Kobe, Gasol, Odom)

Utah=6.87 (D. Williams, Boozer, M. Okur)

Pistons = 6.67 (Billups, Rip Hamilton, Rasheed Wallace, Tayshaun Prince)

Hornets=5.46 (C. Paul, D. West, Stojakovic, T. Chandler)
Suns = 5.14 (A. Stoudemire, Nash, Marion, G. Hill)
Spurs = 5.10 (Ginobili, Duncan, Parker)
Rockets = 4.84 (Yao, T-Mac, R. Alston, Scola - and a 22-game winning streak, 10 of which were without Yao!)

The 2007-2008 Season has the highest minimum for a 7-team set (5.10) and the highest minimum for an 8-team set (4.84). Hell, the 8th-best team had a 22-game winning streak during the season and was even the #1 seed out West for about 24 hours. The score for their 6th-best team is not far from the best for a 6th-best team (the 5.45 of the 1996-1997 Pistons team listed above). The standard deviation is much lower than the other seasons so I would venture to say that this would be the best "multi-team" year. I still think having 5 teams that create complete uncertainty as to who the champion is, as in this season, is still more exciting than in this 2007-2008 season. Granted, for those who want additional arguments for the 2007-2008 season, the Cavs don't even make the list due to their awful play during the season while also trading 4 of their players. The Hawks weren't in the top 8... and almost took the Celtics out in the 1st round!

Thus, to recap all of the challenges set forth to the teams of 2009-2010:
5th-best team: beat 5.87
6th-best team: beat 5.45
7th-best team: beat 5.10
8th-best team: beat 4.84
Average SRS for 5 teams: 7.362
Average SRS for 6 teams: 7.018
Average SRS for 7 teams: 6.565
Average SRS for 8 teams: 6.203

No comments: