NBA Preview: 2009-2010 Part 3: Playoff Teams

Finally, we have made it to the third installment of my NBA Preview. As I have said in my multi-part article, I think this could be one of the most amazing seasons ever with perhaps the best five teams that ever had to compete against each other in the same season. Well, enough has been said, let's start to look at what we have!

Eastern Conference

8- Miami- I almost took these guys out of the playoffs, but I'm expecting Wade to produce enough wins to get them in. They really need Beasley and Jermaine O'Neal to contribute something for them to squeak in to the 8th seed. They could easily not make it the more I think about it.
7- Washington- I really like the addition of PG Randy Foye and SG Mike Miller. I think this will shore things up and I think the Wizards can make the playoffs even if Gilbert Arenas doesn't play. They still have Caron Butler and Antwawn Jamison. And... they have the best regular season coach in recent NBA history in Flip Saunders. That should be enough to get in the playoffs.
6- Toronto- I think the Raptors are a solid playoff team. The main reason is that I'm assuming PG Jose Calderon will be healthy, and they added SF Hedo Turkoglu. If you were wondering, they also made a lot of other bench changes, as they added PG Jarrett Jack as a backup, rookie DeMar DeRozan is playing SG, and they acquired sharpshooter Marco Bellinelli from GS.
5- Atlanta- It was a rather blah off-season. Yes, they did get Jamal Crawford from Golden State, but Crawford has never played defense and never been on a winning team. They also picked up Joe Smith, not to be confused with star Josh Smith.
4- Chicago- They lost Ben Gordon, but I don't think it will hurt them that much. They added Jannero Pargo (formerly of the Hornets) to play the SG spot, but they also have John Salmons to play the whole season this year, and he can actually guard other SGs, unlike Ben Gordon. They also are really excited about F James Johnson, a 6'9" rookie from Wake. They also tried to acquire Boozer during the offseason, and I wouldn't be surprised if they try again.
3-Boston- They added Rasheed Wallace, and SG Marquis Daniels in the offseason to shore up the bench. Seriously though, Rasheed was pretty worthless last season, and the most important question for the Celtics is this: how healthy will KG be???? And that is the million dollar question.
2-Orlando- I wrote an extensive piece analyzing their offseason. The short-story is this: they added SG/SF Vince Carter, SG M. Barnes, PF B. Bass, and PF Ryan Anderson. They lost SF Turkoglu, SG C. Lee, and PF Battie. Their million dollar questions are: how will Vince Carter contribute defensively and offensively? will PG Jameer Nelson return from shoulder injury to All-star form? will SG Pietrus play like he did during the playoffs, or like he did during his injury-riddled season?
1- Cleveland- Quick recap of their off-season: they added C Shaq, SG A. Parker, and SF J. Moon to replace C B. Wallace, SG Sasha Pavlovic, and SF Wally Szczberiak. All three of those acquisitions are each better than the player that they replace. And as the cherry on top... they added PF Leon Powe! Now, Powe is recovering from knee surgery for the 4th time, so it's completely unclear what he will be able to do come February when his rehab is scheduled to end. Their million dollar questions? Can Shaq actually stay healthy and allow the Cavs to only put one body on Dwight Howard when they face the Magic? Will Powe contribute in the playoffs and get revenge for the Celtics not re-signing him? Will PF JJ Hickson stay healthy and develop into a productive player or become a bust?

Western Conference

8-Oklahoma City Thundercats - If I told you that a movie existed where the T-1000, Jean Grey, Frodo the Hobbit, Vin Diesel's sister from Fast & the Furious, George's boss Kruger from Seinfeld, Steven Hyde from that '70s show, the bad blonde girl from Season 2 of 24 who kills her husband in a shocking twist (Marie Warner), Salma Hayek, Josh Hartnett, Usher, AND Jon Stewart (yes, from the Daily Show) were all in the same movie that came out in 1998, would any of you believe me? Of course not.
But all of these actors were amazingly ALL TOGETHER in one movie called... "The Faculty." I think that one day, we will also look back in awe 11 years from now at the Ok City Thundercats, just like I'm in awe of The Faculty. PF Jeff Green, SF Kevin Durant, C Nenad Kristic, SG James Harden, PG Russell Westbrook... is one amazing starting five. I'm not sure if it's amazing enough in 2009 to get to the playoffs (as opposed to 2010 or 2011), but I'm banking on Durant and the rest of the players making the leap to play better defensively. That's it. Do "The Faculty" proud and make the playoffs!
7- Rockets - As said in my Western Conference Lottery Team article, I still think that the Rockets players that remain are capable of allowing them to win enough games to make the playoffs. They won't do anything in the playoffs, but PG Aaron Brooks, Trevor Ariza, Shane Battier, and Luis Scola all know how to play defense and win games.
6- Jazz - during the offseason, two of the players (Deron Williams and Kyle Korver) filmed videos about being dodgeball ninjas. Man I wish I was in the NBA! Seriously though, this is still a solid team with PG Deron Williams, PF Paul Millsap, and C Mehmet Okur
5- Mavericks - Here is where we start to get to some of the more exciting teams for this season. Here is the Mavs starting lineup, and top 2 bench players:
PF Dirk, SF J. Howard, C Dampier, SG Jason Terry, PG J. Kidd, 6th - S. Marion, 7th - D. Gooden. Obviously, this team would have won the championship in 2004. Only problem is, it's 2009! Kidd, Marion, and Gooden are not nearly as good as they once were. They also have PG JJ Barea, PG Rodrigue Beaubois (who was sensational in summer league for whatever it's worth), and even F Tim Thomas. I just think the Mavs were lucky last year when they drew an injured Spurs team in the playoffs. I don't think the ceiling is much higher because Marion has become an average to below-average player sadly. Just look at his Win-share per minute per game the last 4 seasons: 2006 = .362, 2007 = .319, 2008 = .201, 2009 = .145 . For some perspective, his 2009 is about the same as CJ Watson of Golden State or slightly worse than Rafer Alston last year.
4- Blazers - I'm expecting the Blazers to get a boost from playing PG Andre Miller (.242 WS/min/gm) over PG Steve Blake (.183). That equates to an extra few wins. So should playing Rudy Fernandez additional minutes who's better than N. Batum. If Oden can actually grow up a bit, that would be a big help too.
3- Nuggets - The Nuggets lost SG Dahntay Jones and Kleiza, who were important to the team. The core of the team (Carmelo, Chauncey, Bird-man, Nene) are all still there still. They should be a very, very good team that is hard to beat mainly because of Carmelo and Chauncey and Nene.
2- Spurs - I wrote extensively about them over the summer and how they were my 2009 Offseason champion. In addition, Dejuan Blair has been a MONSTER during the preseason, currently averaging 14.2 ppg, 7.8 rebounds, 61% FG%, in only 19 mpg. I know, it's only pre-season, but it shows that he may be very important and productive for the team, in addition to all the other pieces they have added up front for this year (PF McDyess, F Marcus Haislip).
1- Lakers - Defending champions. Switched out Artest for Ariza. The number one question is how healthy Bynum will be. The number two question is how will Artest play with Kobe and coach Phil Jackson. I'm not sure what the answer is to these questions are, and I'm sure Bynum and Artest don't even know the answers.

I really envision a number of scenarios for the playoffs... mainly where any of Lakers, Spurs, Magic, Cavs, or Celtics win it all. In the end, each of these teams have question marks that must be answered. It's almost a choose-your-own adventure, and this is just my biased opinion as to what will happen:

Playoffs

1st round
1- Cavs vs. Miami - Lebron vs. Wade! O'Neal vs. O'Neal! Welcome to the NBA Playoffs! It sounds better than it is, as the Cavs will destroy the Heat.
4- Chicago vs. 5- Atlanta - This should be a whopper of a series... but if Derrick Rose keeps progressing, I'm assuming he will feast on whomever the Hawks throw at him (i.e. Bibby, J. Crawford, J. Johnson)
3- Boston vs. 6 - Toronto - I think the Celtics are going to struggle again in the 1st round, but they will still move on in this series.
2 - Orlando vs. 7 - Washington - The Magic will have no trouble here, even if Arenas is healthy.

1-Lakers vs. 8-Ok City Thundercats - Sweep.
4-Blazers vs. 5- Mavs - The Blazers won't be so passive this time. They will push through this time in what should be an exciting series.
3- Nuggets vs. 6 - Jazz - I think this should be a very exciting series as well, especially with Deron Williams playing against PG Chauncey Billups.
2 - Spurs vs. 7 - Rockets - The Spurs will have no problems here.

2nd round
1-Cavs vs. 4-Bulls - This will be a very difficult series for the Cavs, but they should be able to move on. They have limited ways to stop PG Derrick Rose, but then again, not many people can guard him without help from teammates anyway.
2-Orlando vs. 3-Boston - If KG is healthy, the Celtics will move on this time. The main reason? Kendrick Perkins was able to guard D. Howard one-on-one last year... and the same should hold true this year.
1-Lakers vs. 4-Blazers- This should be an amazing series! I'm excited to watch it, but the Lakers will win.
2-Spurs vs. 3-Nuggets - I think the Spurs new forwards will enable them to win this series.

Conference Championships
1-Cavs vs. 3-Boston - The Cavs are built to beat the Celtics. With or without Powe, and with or without KG on Boston. I will say still that if the Cavs have to play the Magic, I'm still not torn on what would happen. Orlando won 4-2 last spring, but all but one of the games came down to the wire. The additions that the Cavs made (Shaq, Moon, Parker) should enable them to do better against the Magic as well, should they have to face them.
1-Lakers vs. 2-Spurs - I've gone back and forth on this, but I still have to go with the Lakers. The Spurs have a lower chance of everything coming together (i.e. Duncan, Ginobili, Parker staying healthy, the revamped frontline succeeding).

NBA Finals
1-Cavs vs. 1-Lakers - It's the matchup many people want to see and that has lots of drama (will Shaq clobber Kobe if he comes into the lane? Yes!) In the end, assuming Bynum is in good form, the Cavs really will need PF Leon Powe to provide solid minutes against the Lakers bigs for the Cavs to have a chance. Obviously, the odds are higher that the Lakers win, because you'd have to assume that Powe or PF JJ Hickson are able to provide support otherwise for the Cavs. There's lots of other players that are important but the frontline of Bynum, Gasol, and Odom is such an advantage over the Cavs' frontline unless Powe or Hickson play out of their minds.
Pick: Lakers