As the American League Fellow of the Buck O’Neil Institute for Baseball Excellence, it is my distinct pleasure and honor to present the following analysis of the 2009 postseason awards for the Junior Circuit. Hitman, my colleague at the Institute, has already posted his picks for the NL here.
(One little note: The Trustees at the Buck O’Neil Institute for Baseball Excellence permit their Fellows to use various modes of analysis. In my case, I prefer to analyze things sabermetrically and, as such, I have picked my winners based on who I think should win based on the advanced metrics. I will add my actual “who will win” picks in the comments field).
Manager of the Year: Mike Scioscia, Los Angeles. There seems to be a groundswell of support for Scioscia’s candidacy, based in large part to the fact that he managed a team coping with the loss of pitcher Nick Adenhart, who was killed on April 9th in a drunken driving accident. Personally, I find the principle behind that line of reasoning to be specious at best but, abiding by the saying that instructs us to either say something nice or nothing at all, I will simply move on to who I think should win.
In a perfect, unsentimental world, the voting for the Manager of the Year Award would go to Ron Washington (Texas Rangers). I don’t believe anyone picked the Rangers to contend for a playoff spot in 2009, certainly not if you told them that last year’s feel good story Josh Hamilton would only play in 89 games and hit 10 homers a year after playing 156 games and hitting 32. The Rangers faded down the stretch and missed the playoffs for the 10th consecutive season but, thanks to the deepest farm system in the majors, the future finally looks a little bit brighter. Ron Washington led the team to eight more victories and the team’s best record since 2004. Runners-up: Joe Girardi, New York; Don Wakamatsu, Seattle.
Rookie of the Year: Andrew Bailey, Oakland. This was a very tough choice. Despite the fact that I find the save statistic to be utterly meaningless, I am not able to completely discount the fact that closers, in some cases, enter ballgames in high leverage situations and have a critical impact on the outcome of a baseball game. As a result, I’ve decided to give this award to Andrew Bailey, the terrific rookie closer for the A’s based on his impressive 2.33 WPA (Win Probability Added^). In context, only 13 other relievers had a higher WPA and of those 13, none scored as high as Bailey on the WPA/LI index which measures the win probability when divided by the leverage of a game situation. In other words, no relief pitcher in baseball was tested more than Bailey and no one scored higher. That’s impressive on its own merit and doubly impressive for a rookie.
Because the field of potential award-winners was so close, I created a quick-and-dirty test where I added each finalist’s WAR (explained directly below) and WPA and picked my winner according to the results. Bailey (4.73) scored considerably higher than the other deserving players. Toss in his conventional stats –– 6-3 record, 1.84 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 91 strikeouts, 26 saves/30 chances –– and there’s your winner. Runners-up: Brett Anderson, Oakland; Rick Porcello, Detroit; Elvis Andrus, Texas.
Cy Young Award: Zack Greinke, Kansas City. Using a stat called WAR (Wins Above Replacement*, and a logical successor to VORP (Value Over Replacement Player)), Zack Greinke was a 9.3 WAR player this year. Translation: Greinke contributed 9 pure wins to the Royals this year or, put another way, a 10-man staff of the ’09 version of Greinke would’ve contributed 90 wins to the team. Incredible! To further put this stat into context, you have to go back to 2004, when Randy Johnson posted a 9.9 WAR to find another pitcher that has posted a WAR above 7.7 (CC Sabathia, 2008). Simply put, a 9-win above replacement pitcher is practically unheard of given that starting pitchers only factor into roughly 20% of a team’s season. But if we must stick to conventional stats, Greinke’s 17 wins, 2.16 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 242 strikeouts and three shutouts ranked him third, first, first, second and second in the American League in those categories. Runners-up: Felix Hernandez, Seattle; CC Sabathia, New York.
Most Valuable Player: Joe Mauer, Minnesota. Sticking with WAR, Joe Mauer was an 8-win above replacement player. Playing 127 games primarily as a catcher –– acknowledged as the most difficult and physically taxing position in baseball –– any player that finishes second to only Albert Pujols in BRAR (Batting Runs Above Replacement) is the clear MVP of his league. Mauer also led the league in AVG (.364), OBP (.442), SLG (.586), OPS (1.027) and finished with 28 HR, 96 RBI and 94 R. The Twins might not have even been a .500 team without him and yet they’re playing for a playoff spot this afternoon. Runners-up: Mark Teixeira, New York; Ben Zobrist, Tampa; Kevin Youkilis, Boston.
^For an explanation of WPA and win probability metrics, click here.
*For an explanation of WAR and win-value metrics, click here.
(One little note: The Trustees at the Buck O’Neil Institute for Baseball Excellence permit their Fellows to use various modes of analysis. In my case, I prefer to analyze things sabermetrically and, as such, I have picked my winners based on who I think should win based on the advanced metrics. I will add my actual “who will win” picks in the comments field).
Manager of the Year: Mike Scioscia, Los Angeles. There seems to be a groundswell of support for Scioscia’s candidacy, based in large part to the fact that he managed a team coping with the loss of pitcher Nick Adenhart, who was killed on April 9th in a drunken driving accident. Personally, I find the principle behind that line of reasoning to be specious at best but, abiding by the saying that instructs us to either say something nice or nothing at all, I will simply move on to who I think should win.
In a perfect, unsentimental world, the voting for the Manager of the Year Award would go to Ron Washington (Texas Rangers). I don’t believe anyone picked the Rangers to contend for a playoff spot in 2009, certainly not if you told them that last year’s feel good story Josh Hamilton would only play in 89 games and hit 10 homers a year after playing 156 games and hitting 32. The Rangers faded down the stretch and missed the playoffs for the 10th consecutive season but, thanks to the deepest farm system in the majors, the future finally looks a little bit brighter. Ron Washington led the team to eight more victories and the team’s best record since 2004. Runners-up: Joe Girardi, New York; Don Wakamatsu, Seattle.
Rookie of the Year: Andrew Bailey, Oakland. This was a very tough choice. Despite the fact that I find the save statistic to be utterly meaningless, I am not able to completely discount the fact that closers, in some cases, enter ballgames in high leverage situations and have a critical impact on the outcome of a baseball game. As a result, I’ve decided to give this award to Andrew Bailey, the terrific rookie closer for the A’s based on his impressive 2.33 WPA (Win Probability Added^). In context, only 13 other relievers had a higher WPA and of those 13, none scored as high as Bailey on the WPA/LI index which measures the win probability when divided by the leverage of a game situation. In other words, no relief pitcher in baseball was tested more than Bailey and no one scored higher. That’s impressive on its own merit and doubly impressive for a rookie.
Because the field of potential award-winners was so close, I created a quick-and-dirty test where I added each finalist’s WAR (explained directly below) and WPA and picked my winner according to the results. Bailey (4.73) scored considerably higher than the other deserving players. Toss in his conventional stats –– 6-3 record, 1.84 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 91 strikeouts, 26 saves/30 chances –– and there’s your winner. Runners-up: Brett Anderson, Oakland; Rick Porcello, Detroit; Elvis Andrus, Texas.
Cy Young Award: Zack Greinke, Kansas City. Using a stat called WAR (Wins Above Replacement*, and a logical successor to VORP (Value Over Replacement Player)), Zack Greinke was a 9.3 WAR player this year. Translation: Greinke contributed 9 pure wins to the Royals this year or, put another way, a 10-man staff of the ’09 version of Greinke would’ve contributed 90 wins to the team. Incredible! To further put this stat into context, you have to go back to 2004, when Randy Johnson posted a 9.9 WAR to find another pitcher that has posted a WAR above 7.7 (CC Sabathia, 2008). Simply put, a 9-win above replacement pitcher is practically unheard of given that starting pitchers only factor into roughly 20% of a team’s season. But if we must stick to conventional stats, Greinke’s 17 wins, 2.16 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 242 strikeouts and three shutouts ranked him third, first, first, second and second in the American League in those categories. Runners-up: Felix Hernandez, Seattle; CC Sabathia, New York.
Most Valuable Player: Joe Mauer, Minnesota. Sticking with WAR, Joe Mauer was an 8-win above replacement player. Playing 127 games primarily as a catcher –– acknowledged as the most difficult and physically taxing position in baseball –– any player that finishes second to only Albert Pujols in BRAR (Batting Runs Above Replacement) is the clear MVP of his league. Mauer also led the league in AVG (.364), OBP (.442), SLG (.586), OPS (1.027) and finished with 28 HR, 96 RBI and 94 R. The Twins might not have even been a .500 team without him and yet they’re playing for a playoff spot this afternoon. Runners-up: Mark Teixeira, New York; Ben Zobrist, Tampa; Kevin Youkilis, Boston.
^For an explanation of WPA and win probability metrics, click here.
*For an explanation of WAR and win-value metrics, click here.
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