Friday, September 08, 2006

Friday Ramblings

It’s been a while since I posted. Two things on my mind today:

1. Now this, this is an idea I can get behind. Why is it that a pop-culture observer can come up with a better sports idea than the trained monkeys at ESPN who are actually paid to write and think critically about sports? Anyway, I love the idea and I hope someone at USA Basketball is listening. I’m 100% positive that the US will not deviate from its formula but I wish they would read this and see the value in this concept.

2. I was talking about the Red Sox with a friend of mine this weekend. The general perception surrounding the 2006 Red Sox falls into two main camps. The first group thinks that the ’06 Sox simply got unlucky at the wrong time, and that injuries to Varitek, Nixon, Ramirez, Ortiz, Clement, Wakefield, Papelbon, and Lester torpedoed their season. The second group thinks that the ’06 Sox were right on the cusp of greatness but were led down the wrong path by the (mis-)management team of GM Theo Epstein and President Larry Lucchino.

My feeling is that it’s a bit of both and a whole lot of neither. It’s true; the Red Sox played a lot of their games in August without some of their starting players. Most teams cannot withstand such a sudden rash of injuries, especially during a key stretch of the season. So there is definitely a bit of value to the “unlucky” theory. But it’s also true that, of the everyday players, only Varitek and Nixon missed a significant amount of playing time. Ortiz missed a week due to his irregular heartbeat. Manny didn’t suffer injuries as much as he picked mid-August as his annual “Manny being Manny (is a selfish prick)” vacation. The injuries to Clement and Wakefield, while unfortunate, are something I’ll touch on in just a bit...

Those (including Bill Simmons) that have trashed Boston’s front office for not being more proactive during the trade deadline also have a bit of a point. The Red Sox, with all the games they sell out at Fenway Park, with the highest ticket prices in baseball, with their $120M payroll, could’ve easily afforded to add payroll to their roster at the end of July. That they didn’t was a bit curious. That they played the impoverished card and compared themselves to the big bad Yankees was fairly ridiculous. But what isn’t ridiculous is the basic truth in Theo Epstein’s rationale for not forcing a deal – the market just wasn’t that rich for buyers. Outside of the Yankees’ trade for Bobby Abreu and Cory Lidle, the Dodgers were the only other team that was able to acquire premium talent (if you consider a 40-year old pitcher whose 9-11 record with a 5.02 ERA at the time being “premium”).

The point is, for those fans that patted Red Sox management on the back for trading youth in order to acquire Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell, how could retaining youth at the trade deadline be construed as a bad move? Would trading more youth for C- and D-level talent be a worthwhile move? Theo’s worst move of the year was trading Josh Bard for Doug Mirabelli back in May. That was a pure panic move. But otherwise, can Red Sox fans really complain about the caliber of players this management team has brought in since taking over in 2002?

In effect, Theo’s only mistake was not selling the inactivity in the right way. Instead of whining about what the Yankees were able to do with Philadelphia, Theo simply should’ve reminded fans that the Red Sox still have some talent at the minor league level and that they continue to draft and scout top-notch players. Fans don’t want to hear about how the Red Sox view themselves as “have nots”, not when they’re paying top dollar to keep Fenway Park packed every night.

The 2006 Red Sox are, as of this writing, 15 games from mathematical elimination. They have a nearly zero percent chance of making the post-season over the White Sox, Twins, or Yankees. But the reason for this isn’t entirely due to bad luck and it’s not entirely due to a poor front office. Plain and simple, their pitching wasn’t good enough all year. They’ve given up the fourth-most runs in the American League and they have the highest team ERA of any team still over .500. Josh Beckett has been a major bust in 2006 and the Red Sox are still paying for the mistake they made in signing Matt Clement. If the Sox don’t address their pitching, next year won’t be any better.

No comments: