It’s amazing how much things can change in one week’s time. Last week, at the conclusion of baseball’s Winter Meetings, the Red Sox had signed JD Drew and Julio Lugo but were staring a deadline in the face in their negotiations with Japanese star Daisuke “Dice-K” Matsuzaka. A week later, the Red Sox and Matsuzaka have come to terms on a six year $52M contract which, with incentives, could hit $60M.
Together with the posting fee of $51.11M, the Red Sox are committing a maximum amount of $111.11M on Matsuzaka, or roughly $18.5M per season (of which Matsuzaka only receives $10M). That’s a lot of dough for any pitcher, and especially for one that has never thrown a pitch in the major leagues. But I think Matsuzaka will be very successful in the big leagues and will reward the Red Sox with #1 or #2 starter stuff. As much as I hate to say it, there is no doubt in my mind that the Red Sox have the AL East’s best lineup and the best starting rotation on paper. Their bullpen is lacking a closer and reliable setup men and that could be their Achilles heel. But the Red Sox won’t be a third place team in 2007 like they were in 2006.
In other baseball news:
• The Yankees signed Andy Pettitte to a one year $16M contract with a player option for $16M. New York needed to make this move, as it pushes Mike Mussina and Randy Johnson down to the 3 and 4 slots in the rotation, respectively. And, despite the size of the contract, a one year deal gives the Yanks the flexibility to turn over their rotation next year when RJ and Pettitte both become free agents. If one or more of the Yankees AA and AAA prospects develop this summer then the 2008 rotation will look a lot younger (and cheaper).
• The Atlanta Braves did not offer a contract to 2B Marcus Giles. According to reports, the Braves were reluctant to go to arbitration with Giles because he was expected to get a raise from the $3.85M he made in 2006 to around $5.5M. Here’s what I don’t understand: the Braves had the league’s ninth-highest payroll last season at just over $90M. If you can’t wedge $3M into your budget for a former All-Star, should you really be in the baseball business? I mean, we’re talking about a team with a payroll at nearly $100M. Is $3M really that much? I lost a lot of respect for the Braves yesterday; that was a straight-up Kansas City Royals/Florida Marlins move right there.
• Ironic that I should be knocking the Royals for their penny-pinching ways in the wake of their astounding five year $55M contract offer to Gil Meche. Here’s a guy who has never topped 200IP in a season and has a career ERA of 4.45. He’s battled injury problems as recently as 2005. And he’s making more per season than two-time Cy Young Award Winner Johan Santana. Incredible! The Royals won’t be within 10 games of .500 again this season but they seem willing to increase payroll by 8% ($47M in ‘06, $58M in ‘07) for one below league average starter. They essentially took the Yankees’ welfare check and went on a three day bender.
• Figuring that they needed to corner the market on league-average starters, the Cubs offered Jason Marquis a three year $20M contract. The “glass half-empty” type mocks the Cubs for spending $60M on mediocre products Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis. The “glass half-full” type would simply say that Jason Marquis has the potential to be better than Lilly at roughly 30% of the cost. One question to the Cubs however – why go for Lilly and Marquis and leave Jeff Suppan on the table? If you really want to win your division, a better way to do it is to take your main rival’s second best pitcher...
• In an astounding turn of events, the Houston Astros responded to their loss of Andy Pettitte (and, presumably, Roger Clemens) by trading leadoff hitter Willy Taveras, #4 starter Taylor Buchholz and #1 organizational prospect Jason Hirsh to the Colorado Rockies for 2002 Rookie of the Year and de-facto ace Jason Jennings. I like Jennings a fair amount but I don’t know that I’d give up my top pitching prospect for him going into his last season before free agency. If Jennings tests the waters – and he’d be a fool not to – the Astros may have given up their #1 pitching prospect for absolutely nothing in return. What’s worse is that the Astros had the same deal in place with the White Sox for Jon Garland. I would’ve done whatever it took to get Garland. It pains me to admit it but he’s the best pitcher on the White Sox and a top-10 starter in the AL at this point.
• The Texas Rangers got into the Hot Stove mix, signing closer Eric Gagne and CF Kenny Lofton to one year, $6M contracts. The Rangers are run by a bumbling idiot of a Cornell grad and, if reports are to be believed, will offer free agent pitcher Barry Zito a six year $100M contract. However, these two signings make a lot of sense. The Rangers get a low-risk/high-reward closer for under market value and can move last season’s closer Akinori Otsuka back to a setup role. And in Lofton, the Rangers get a known commodity; he won’t be an All-Star or a spectacular performer but Lofton’s a competitor and coming in at $54M less than what departed CF Garry Matthews Jr. signed for with Anaheim.
• Finally, the Blue Jays made news by offering All-Star CF Vernon Wells a six year $126M contract to stay in Toronto. The Jays have had a horrible winter, losing Ted Lilly and failing to sign Rod Barajas or Gil Meche. They need a bit of this good news otherwise the Jays might be forced to deal with trade rumors circulating around the team all season long. The Mets and Rangers have already made inquiries into Big Vern’s availability.
Together with the posting fee of $51.11M, the Red Sox are committing a maximum amount of $111.11M on Matsuzaka, or roughly $18.5M per season (of which Matsuzaka only receives $10M). That’s a lot of dough for any pitcher, and especially for one that has never thrown a pitch in the major leagues. But I think Matsuzaka will be very successful in the big leagues and will reward the Red Sox with #1 or #2 starter stuff. As much as I hate to say it, there is no doubt in my mind that the Red Sox have the AL East’s best lineup and the best starting rotation on paper. Their bullpen is lacking a closer and reliable setup men and that could be their Achilles heel. But the Red Sox won’t be a third place team in 2007 like they were in 2006.
In other baseball news:
• The Yankees signed Andy Pettitte to a one year $16M contract with a player option for $16M. New York needed to make this move, as it pushes Mike Mussina and Randy Johnson down to the 3 and 4 slots in the rotation, respectively. And, despite the size of the contract, a one year deal gives the Yanks the flexibility to turn over their rotation next year when RJ and Pettitte both become free agents. If one or more of the Yankees AA and AAA prospects develop this summer then the 2008 rotation will look a lot younger (and cheaper).
• The Atlanta Braves did not offer a contract to 2B Marcus Giles. According to reports, the Braves were reluctant to go to arbitration with Giles because he was expected to get a raise from the $3.85M he made in 2006 to around $5.5M. Here’s what I don’t understand: the Braves had the league’s ninth-highest payroll last season at just over $90M. If you can’t wedge $3M into your budget for a former All-Star, should you really be in the baseball business? I mean, we’re talking about a team with a payroll at nearly $100M. Is $3M really that much? I lost a lot of respect for the Braves yesterday; that was a straight-up Kansas City Royals/Florida Marlins move right there.
• Ironic that I should be knocking the Royals for their penny-pinching ways in the wake of their astounding five year $55M contract offer to Gil Meche. Here’s a guy who has never topped 200IP in a season and has a career ERA of 4.45. He’s battled injury problems as recently as 2005. And he’s making more per season than two-time Cy Young Award Winner Johan Santana. Incredible! The Royals won’t be within 10 games of .500 again this season but they seem willing to increase payroll by 8% ($47M in ‘06, $58M in ‘07) for one below league average starter. They essentially took the Yankees’ welfare check and went on a three day bender.
• Figuring that they needed to corner the market on league-average starters, the Cubs offered Jason Marquis a three year $20M contract. The “glass half-empty” type mocks the Cubs for spending $60M on mediocre products Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis. The “glass half-full” type would simply say that Jason Marquis has the potential to be better than Lilly at roughly 30% of the cost. One question to the Cubs however – why go for Lilly and Marquis and leave Jeff Suppan on the table? If you really want to win your division, a better way to do it is to take your main rival’s second best pitcher...
• In an astounding turn of events, the Houston Astros responded to their loss of Andy Pettitte (and, presumably, Roger Clemens) by trading leadoff hitter Willy Taveras, #4 starter Taylor Buchholz and #1 organizational prospect Jason Hirsh to the Colorado Rockies for 2002 Rookie of the Year and de-facto ace Jason Jennings. I like Jennings a fair amount but I don’t know that I’d give up my top pitching prospect for him going into his last season before free agency. If Jennings tests the waters – and he’d be a fool not to – the Astros may have given up their #1 pitching prospect for absolutely nothing in return. What’s worse is that the Astros had the same deal in place with the White Sox for Jon Garland. I would’ve done whatever it took to get Garland. It pains me to admit it but he’s the best pitcher on the White Sox and a top-10 starter in the AL at this point.
• The Texas Rangers got into the Hot Stove mix, signing closer Eric Gagne and CF Kenny Lofton to one year, $6M contracts. The Rangers are run by a bumbling idiot of a Cornell grad and, if reports are to be believed, will offer free agent pitcher Barry Zito a six year $100M contract. However, these two signings make a lot of sense. The Rangers get a low-risk/high-reward closer for under market value and can move last season’s closer Akinori Otsuka back to a setup role. And in Lofton, the Rangers get a known commodity; he won’t be an All-Star or a spectacular performer but Lofton’s a competitor and coming in at $54M less than what departed CF Garry Matthews Jr. signed for with Anaheim.
• Finally, the Blue Jays made news by offering All-Star CF Vernon Wells a six year $126M contract to stay in Toronto. The Jays have had a horrible winter, losing Ted Lilly and failing to sign Rod Barajas or Gil Meche. They need a bit of this good news otherwise the Jays might be forced to deal with trade rumors circulating around the team all season long. The Mets and Rangers have already made inquiries into Big Vern’s availability.
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