MMBSD: Coming Into Focus

Due to unfortunate technology problems MMBSD was delayed. Which I suppose is fine as there's lots to talk about. Albeit these are all random....

• TCU's backup qb is named Yogi Gallegos. Which is awesome. Ok the really big story is TCU is joining the Big East. Theoretically distances aren't that much different from Fort Worth to the East as it is to Boise but the real reason for the changes is BCS money. The Big East needed a big name to avoid being sidelined in the next round of BCS negotiations and TCU saw an easy path to BCS money err glory so it's oddly a perfect match. At least until another conference starts poaching TCU or other Big East teams.
• The various BCS bowls are coming into focus. TCU will go to the Rose Bowl or Mythical Championship. Stanford, with its #4 ranking, will get an automatic bid, most likely the Fiesta bowl. UConn gets a win and it'll be off somewhere as the Big East Rep. Wisconsin, , and Ohio State will almost assuredly be going to the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl respectively. That leaves a few championship games and a Civil War game to figure out the remaining few spots.

• In a year where perennial powers took nose dives Jim Tressel's Buckeyes finished with yet another 10 win season, share of the Big 10 title, etc. Partially this is homerism but partially its annoyance that Tressel has never won coach of the year while at tOSU. Kirk Ferentz after losing to Minnesota should have to donate one of his.
• Is Atlanta the best team in the NFC? Unclear Chicago, Philly, and Green Bay all have legitimate arguments they could be. However Atlanta at home is entirely different beast and given a favorable schedule the aforementioned teams will have to go to Mattie Ice's layer...no easy task.
  
• I wish I could say why San Diego does this horrible out of the gate and then come on strong each and every year. There's no real reason for it. And yet here we are once again San Diego with a straight shot to the playoffs and once again a dangerous team that can win (or lose) on any given day. I wish I wish I could say why (as I'd bet in Vegas over it)

The Jaro Sisters are supportive of Sweatervests...

RIP Leslie Nielsen

You'll be missed....

Week 12 - Happy Thanksgiving

I have to share this link with everyone. It's canadian football. Make sure to click on the link on the right and watch the end of the highlights. Essentially, one team kciks off and upon the other team recovring it in the end zone, the othe rteam punts the ball. But the first team punts the ball back. I'm not joking.

http://www.tsn.ca/cfl/story/?id=339193#

On to the games... and a happy thanksgiving to all! Just for the record, after 3 glorious weeks of picking games right by going with the insane "bounce-back system", things clamed down and i picked almost every game wrong last week.

Manwich Matchup of the Week #1
GB @ ATL- I think this is a great matchup of two bona fide super bowl contenders from the NFC. To top things off, both have won 4 in a row going into the game. The Falcons are undefeated at home, but I really think the Packers are impressive, so I'll go with the upset.
Pick: ATL

Upset of the Week #1
SD @ Indy- Too easy. The Colts are very injured. The Chargers are in their usual 2nd half stride.
Pick: SD

Upset of the Week #2
CAR @ Cleve- I think I figured out Coach Mangini. If he plays what he considers to be a "tough" team, he opens up the playbook (i.e. wins over Saints, Pats, close loss to Jets). If he plays what he consider to be a "poor" team (i.e. Jaguars, Tampa, KC), he plays "not to lose" and continually runs up the middle.
Pick: CAR

Opening Round Playoff Game #12
Teams that have been eliminated: Cleveland, St. Louis, Oakland, Detroit, Buffalo, Kansas City, San Fran, Denver, Arizona, Carolina, Tennessee
Minny @ Wash - I think both of these teams are already eliminated, so mine as well draw some additional viewers to this slugfest.
Pick: Wash

NE @ Detroit- Pick: NE
NO @ Dallas- Pick: NO
Cincy @ Jets- Pick: Jets (the Bengals were up like 31-7 and lost 49-31. I've never heard of such a thing.
Pitt @ Buff - Pick: PItt
Tenn @ Houston - Winner gets to keep the Oilers jackets? Right?!?
Jack @ Giants- The Jaguars are officially the leaders of their division right now. Wow.
Pick: Giants

TB @ Balt- PicK: Balt (TB is 7-3 by the way. Unreal!)
Philly @ Chicago- Pick: Philly
Miami @ Oak- Pick: Miami
KC @ Seattle- Pick: KC
St. Louis @ Denver- Pick: Denver
SF @ Arizona- Pick: SF

Last Week: 8-8 (ouch!)
Season: 92-65
Manwich: 8-3 (The Pats took it to the colts)
Upset of the Week: 8-9 (Missed Houston over Jets BARELY, missed giants over eagles by a lot)

Skynet Championship Series: Week 6 in the Year 2010

Most underrated by the humans: TCU (still 3 in the computers), Ok St, Missouri,

Most overrated by the humans: Boise, Wisconsin, Bama, Va. Tech

2010		SCS	BCS	Sched Rnk	Harris	Coaches
1	Auburn	0.44	2	41	2	2
2	Oregon	1.86	1	81	1	1
3	TCU	3.23	3	72	4	4
4	LSU	3.33	5	31	6	6
5	Boise St	5.08	4	79	3	3
6	Stanford	6.04	6	57	7	8
7	Ok St	8.60	9	58	9	9
8	Ohio St	9.06	8	60	8	7
9	Wisconsin	9.88	7	77	5	5
10	Arkansas	9.97	12	33	12	12
11	Mich St	10.08	10	62	10	10
12	Missouri	10.32	14	7	16	16
13	Oklahoma	11.02	13	8	13	13
14	Alabama	11.13	11	36	11	11
15	Nebraska	13.99	15	45	15	15
16	Texas A&M	15.03	17	4	18	18
17	S. Car	17.58	18	29	17	17
18	Va. Tech	17.98	16	64	14	14
19	Nevada	18.53	19	111	19	19
20	Utah	18.62	20	82	20	22

College Football Trend Watching : Week 11

What You Know: Nebraska Lost but otherwise an unchanged week in college football. This week will decide just about everything...

What You Should Know (but might have missed)

• Nebraska's uberfreshman Martinez has been hurt and without him at 100% Nebraska's O has returned to last year's putridity. If Nebraska wins against Colorado they will go the Big 12 Championship against the winner of Ok State v. OU. Otherwise Missouri will go.
• If NC State wins they will face off V-Tech (who has won 9 straight since losing to James Madison). If they lose the Seminoles will be back in the ACC Championship game for the first time in forever.
• Because the Pac 10 sucks their rivalry games are a week later than everybody else. Consequently they suck. I will note that if Boise/TCU goes to the Championship game alongside Oregon the Rose Bowl is free to select whomever they'd like and will probably select Stanford - which may well squeeze Boise/TCU out of the other at-large spot.
  

Games of the Week
Friday
Auburn @ Alabama - Iron Bowl. BCS hopes. No SEC Implications
Boise State @ Nevada - A win - especially definitive and Boise will leap TCU in the standings.

Saturday
The GAME (at noon) - For hate sake
Florida @ Florida State (3:30) - not as much hate but still a lot
Ok State @ Oklahoma (night game) - Winner wins the Big 12 South. Loser forced to watch Jake Gyllenhaal movie


Prediction Time 11/23

BCS Championship: Oregon v. Auburn
Orange Bowl : Virginia Tech v. TCU
Sugar Bowl: LSU v. Ohio State
Fiesta: Pittsburgh v. Nebraska
Rose Bowl: Boise State v. Wisconsin

MVP

Who said Canadians could only play hockey and curling? Congrats to Joseph David Votto for becoming the 10th Cincinnati Red to win the MVP this year!!!!

MMBSD: Rivalry Week

Pro Football

• It's that time of year when you can see the hand writing on the walls for coaches being fired. The Marvin Lewis era is all but certain to be finished following an amazing implosion against Buffalo. Minnesota's blow out loss to Green Bay should put an end to the Chilly era. Dare we hope Favre is on his way out also?
• Pittsburgh demolition of Oakland is oddly impressive. Oddly because who would've thought Oakland was good. But Pittsburgh thoroughly dominated Oakland in every way imaginable. The victory I think should put the Steelers back into the conversation about best team in the AFC despite their loss last week to New England.
• I have to admit I think it's distinctly possible that the NFC West will be won with a .500 record. It doesn't matter how hard that really is to achieve these teams are so bad, umm why not?
  

College Football

• It's hard to say anything this week really changed much of anything. Yes Nebraska's outside chance at the BCS title went down the drain but it was a very long shot. Instead we are left with rivalry week playing a pivotal role in the BCS title game, BCS spots, division titles, etc. Alabama can thwart archrival Auburn's shot at BCS glory. Same with Oregon State v. Oregon (well next week theoritically). Oklahoma can keep Oklahoma State from winning it's first Big 12 South title. M*ch*g*n can halt OSU's string of Big 10 titles. Game after game last week, rivalry game, huge stakes. As it should be.
• As much as it pains me to admit it, there's a certain irony to Wisconsin having a nearly unstoppable offense. Wisconsin 12 offense (1 back 2 TEs) used to be all the rage but its an anomaly in an age of spread option. That said with teams going smaller and faster to spot the spread Wisconsin's behemoth OL and giant RBs, now have a distinct advantage. It'll be interesting if Wisconsin's success causes some teams to rethink their embrace of the spread.
• There are incredibly still big name programs that need wins to gain bowl eligibility: Texas and Georgia. If either loses against their arch-rival (A&M and G-Tech respectively) look for firings.
  

Heisman Question

So I have a question. Should we view the Heisman trophy of what their website states The Heisman Memorial Trophy annually recognizes the outstanding college football player whose performance best exhibits the pursuit of excellence with integrity. Integrity according to dictionary.com is "adherence to moral and ethical principles; soundness ofmoral character; honesty.". Should we therefore eliminate the top prospect Cam Newton, because of his lack of moral character/honesty? Or should we just base it on the statistics of the players involved? Is the Heisman the MVP of college football? If we look at just the statistics, then Denard Robinson would win the Heisman hands down. He just broke the record for QBs for having over 1500 yards rushing per season, he has 2000 yards passing, leads ALL of the NCAA in rushing, but his team has a shitty defense. Should one player be penalized for a shitty defense, or should we look at the individual performance of the player. Has the Heisman trophy become about the team and not about the individual. This year we tended to look beyond the team surrounding King Felix the Cat Hernandez and gave him the Cy Young for his performance. Why is it that the voters look at the team's performance and not the individual players since it is named after a person and not the team. So when Robinson has more rushing yards, more passing yards than someone who was willing to take money to play for another team (which I know has not been proven, but I don't think the FBI randomly investigates people), it seems pretty easy who has performed better with more integrity. Just a thought.

College Football Trend Watching : Week 10

What You Know: South Carolina clinched a rematch with Auburn in the SEC Title Game. TCU lost a ton of momentum.

What You Might Have Missed

• Oklahoma State controls its destiny. A victory at home over Oklahoma will give Oklahoma State it's first Big 12 South title and end the Texas-OU dominance that has existed for the past 7 years.
• Virginia Tech has clinched the Coastal Division Title yet again. Year after year V-Tech has lost it's opening game and yet somehow has 10+ game 5 years in a row. 2 more wins and V-Tech hits that threshold yet again.
• The Big 10 race is down to 3 schools: MSU needs an tOSU loss, Wisconsin needs the polls to stay same or a MSU loss, and tOSU needs a Wisconsin loss

Games of the Week
#9 Ohio State @ #20 Iowa
#19 Texas A&M @ #8 Nebraska

#13 Arkansas @ #21 Miss St

Prediction Time 11/18

BCS Championship: Oregon v. Auburn
Orange Bowl : Virginia Tech v. TCU
Sugar Bowl: LSU v. Ohio State
Fiesta: Pittsburgh v. Nebraska
Rose Bowl: Boise State v. Wisconsin

Natalie Portman's ass will be going to the Rose Bowl no matter what

Week 11 - The NFL Universe is self-correcting!

Manwich Matchup of the Week-
Indy @ New England - Well, this game is always entertaining to see what the chess battle becomes in terms of the defenses that get rolled out. Plus, both teams don't really have much margin for error in their playoff races. I think the homefield is the deciding factor in this one.
Pick: New England

Upset of the Week #1
Houston @ Jets - I'm sticking with some redemption here. The Jets barely won a game last week, the Texans improbably lost on a hail mary. The universe will correct itself.
Pick: Jets

Upset of the Week #2
Giants @ Eagles - More redemption. Giants were humiliated by the Cowboys. The Eagles romped over the Redskins. This week? Reverseal of fortune!
Pick: Giants

Opening Round Playoff Game #11
Teams that have been eliminated: Cleveland, St. Louis, Oakland, Detroit, Buffalo, Kansas City, San Fran, Denver, Arizona, Carolina
Wash @ Tenn - The Titans are 5-4. The Redskins are 4-5. It's now or never!
Pick: Tenn

Chi @ Miami- Pick: Miami
Oak @ Pitt - Pick: Pitt (redemption for Pitt's disgraceful loss to the Pats)
Balt @ CAR - Pick: Balt
Detroit @ Dallas- Pick: Detroit (payback sucks!)
GB @ Minny- Pick: GB
Buff @ Cincy- Pick: Cincy
Cleve @ Jack- Pick: Cleve
Arizona @ KC- Pick: KC (they always win at home!)
Seattle @ NO - Pick: NO (Seattle only wins in the division)
ATL @ STL- Pick: ATL
TB @ SF- Pick: SF (Troy Smith is just getting hot!)
Denver @ SD- Pick: SD

Last Week: 9-5
Season: 84-57
Manwich: 7-3 (The Pats took it to the Steelers)
Upset of the Week: 8-7 (Missed St. Louis over SF, but I did hit the Seahawks over Arizona).

Skynet Championship Series: Week 5 in the Year 2010

Most underrated by the humans: LSU (scoring margin doesn't count for Skynet), Stanford (they only lost to Oregon), Ok State, Missouri (the computers love the big 12... or rather the voters aren't giving enough credit for some reason to the conference)

Most overrated by the humans: Boise St., Wisconsin, Ohio St., Va. Tech

2010		SCS	BCS	Sched Rnk	Harris	Coaches
1	auburn	0.45	2	38	2	2
2	oregon	1.35	1	80	1	1
3	LSU	2.93	5	22	6	6
4	TCU	4.01	3	82	4	4
5	Stanford	5.63	6	55	8	8
6	Ok St	6.44	10	37	12	10
7	Nebraska	7.01	8	61	9	9
8	Boise St	7.53	4	94	3	3
9	Alabama	9.15	11	15	11	12
10	Mich St	9.41	12	58	10	11
11	Missouri	10.45	15	8	16	16
12	Wisconsin	11.80	7	86	5	5
13	Ohio St	12.32	9	74	7	7
14	Arkansas	12.44	13	41	13	13
15	Oklahoma	12.61	14	20	14	14
16	Texas A&M	16.97	19	13	20	19
17	Nevada	17.14	18	109	18	18
18	S. Car	17.25	17	19	17	17
19	Va Tech	18.55	16	72	15	15
20	Iowa	18.60	20	30	19	20

John Connor Series: Week 12 of College Football

The machines will never stop fighting so the humans can't either...that is at ranking college football teams. As such here it is

Name	SOS	Best Wins			Losses
1. Auburn	72.38	LSU, SoCar, Arkansas, MissState
2. Oregon	74.55	Stanford, USC
3. Wisconsin	66.66	tOSU, Iowa			MSU
4. LSU	73.6	Alabama, Miss State			Auburn
5. TCU	67.82	Baylor, Utah
6. Boise	66.69	V-Tech
7. MSU	68.56	Wisconsin, Illinois			Iowa
8. Nebraska	70.47	Missouri, Ok State,K-State			Texas
9. Stanford	76.58	Arizona, USC			Oregon
10. Ok St	72.74	Baylor, K-State, Tex A&M			Nebraska
11 Ohio State	66.45	Miami, Penn State			Wisconsin
12 Alabama	75.51	Arkan, Florida, Miss St			South Car, LSU

Explanation

• The biggest drop goes to TCU. a close game, a loss by Utah to Notre Dame, and a loss by Baylor to A&M. The result was that what were impressive wins now look tame in comparison. I'm still having a hard time ranking Boise v. TCU but ultimately decided with the number of victories over Boise's sole win.
• tOSU and Ok State have the potential to leap ahead. Ok State has it's arch-rival Oklahoma and a potential rematch against Nebrask . Ohio State has it's arch-rival (TSUN) and a showdown at Iowa this week.
  
• I'm still having trouble with Nebraska...it's one loss is looking worse and worse (Texas might not make a bowl) although the corresponding rise of Ok State is balancing that loss somewhat.
  

College Football Trend Watching : Week 9

I'm not sure how the trend watching got off kilter on the week counting but it definitely did.

What You Know (A Summary of the Previous Week)
TCU solidified its claim as #3 by destroying Utah, Alabama falls to the Mad Hatter, Florida rebounds, Texas falls off cliff, Stanford clinches Pac 10 for Oregon.

What You Might Have Missed (Under the Radar Stories)

• As there 4 at large spots there is a large race to see who gets the big money payoffs for them. The Big 10 has claimed an at large spot for 5 straight years but this year that streak is in jeopardy. So who are the at large claimants?

1. TCU - IF they win out they will almost assuredly get the automatic Non-BCS bid and end up in either the Mythical Championship or the Rose Bowl
2. LSU - Short of Auburn losing its' last 2 games LSU is out of the SEC title hunt. They have a big game against Arkansas remaining but if they win out it's hard to imagine a 1 loss SEC school being ignored.
   
3. Boise - Without an automatic bid Boise will have to sell itself on its ratings/crowd turnout. They got the nod last year but it remains to be seen if given a choice will a bowl select them (again)
4. Stanford - Stanford is almost guaranteed a one loss season. They have a high profile coach and probably the #1 pick in the NFL Draft (Andrew Luck). However Stanford hasn't historically traveled well and the Pac 10 tends to be overlooked for bowl games given the ratings/traveling issues

Looking Ahead (Games of the Week)
South Carolina @ Florida - Winner clinches SEC East and Trip to the SEC Championship
Penn State @ Ohio State - tOSU has the toughest schedule of the top 4 Big 10 contenders .
Georgia @ Auburn - It's a light week
Iowa @ Northwestern - Wildcats have won 3 straight versus Iowa


Prediction Time 11/11

BCS Championship: Oregon v. Auburn
Orange Bowl : Virginia Tech v. Ohio State
Sugar Bowl: LSU v. Boise St.
Fiesta: Pittsburgh v. Nebraska
Rose Bowl: TCU v. Wisconsin

Remember space is limited for the 4th Annual BSD Booze Cruise with the Victoria Secret Girls so sign up soon

Week 10 - Insanity

Well... I "almost" picked the Browns over the Pats last week just for Mangina to get revenge over Belichick. I really dropped the ball there! In addition, I struck out on both upsets (miami over balt, and buffalo falling short against chicago). Let's see what kind of mayhem I foresee this week:

Manwich Matchup of the Week
NE @ Pitt- The Pats are coming off a humiliating defeat... the steelers are riding high. So... I will go with the refocused Pats in a bounce-back game!
Pick: NE

Upset of the Week #1
Seattle @ Ariz- 3 weeks ago, the Seahawks clobbered Arizona. I think the same thing will still happen, because the Arizona QBs aren't good, and Hasselbeck returns for Seattle.
Pick: Seattle

Upset of the Week #2
St. Louis @ SF - Well... I still like the Rams. They've yet to win on the road, but this may be as easy as it gets.

Opening Round Playoff Game #9
Teams that have been eliminated: Cleveland, St. Louis, Oakland, Detroit, Buffalo, Kansas City, San Fran, Denver, Arizona
CAR @ Tampa- Well... Tampa is 5-3. if they lose this game, they don't deserve to go! And for the 1-7 Panthers... they'd basically have to win every game to have any shot!
Pick: Tampa

Balt @ ATL- Should be an interesting game!
Pick: ATL
Cincy @ Indy- Pick: Indy
Houston @ Jack- Houston has lost 2 in a row, which means they are due.
Pick: Houston
Tenn @ Miami- Miami has still not yet won a home game... and I'm not sure if this is the week either.
Pick: Tenn
Minny @ Chicago- Yawn... I hate the Vikings.
Pick: Chicago
Detroit @ Buff- This is the game the bills will win! They are favored by 3 points... and Stafford can't play and the Lions aren't sure if they are starting Shaun Hill or Drew Stanton.
Pick: Buff
Jets @ Cleveland - Can the Browns pull off 3 remarkable wins in a row? I say no, because unlike the Pats and the Saints, the Jets have RBs that will give the Browns trouble.
Pick: Jets
KC @ Denver - Pick: KC
Dallas @ Giants- Pick: Giants
Philly @ Wash- Pick: Philly

Last Week: 9-4
Season: 75-52
Manwich: 6-3 (The Eagles held on against the Colts)
Upset of the Week: 7-6 (Missed Miami over Balt and barely missed on Buffalo over Chicago).

Skynet Championship Series: Week 4 in the Year 2010

Most underrated by the humans: Nebraska, Ok St, Missouri (the computers love the big 12... or rather the voters aren't giving enough credit for some reason to the conference)

Most overrated by the humans: Oregon, Boise, Wisconsin, Ohio St, Iowa (the computers aren't big fans of the big 10. sigh.)

2010		SCS	BCS	Sched Rnk	Harris	Coaches
1	auburn	0.45	2	35	2	2
2	tcu	1.75	3	76	3	3
3	oregon	2.19	1	83	1	1
4	LSU	2.79	5	8	6	6
5	nebraska	6.17	8	62	9	8
6	Ok St	6.51	10	29	13	11
7	Boise St	6.92	4	82	4	4
8	stanford	7.00	6	62	8	9
9	mich st	9.19	11	74	10	10
10	Wisconsin	11.36	7	86	5	5
11	alabama	12.74	12	15	11	12
12	missouri	13.03	17	12	20	20
13	utah	13.94	14	87	15	15
14	ohio st	14.02	9	84	7	7
15	arkansas	14.63	15	27	14	14
16	iowa	14.64	13	36	12	13
17	oklahoma	14.91	16	25	16	16
18	arizona	15.46	18	42	19	19
19	miss st	15.94	19	51	18	18
20	va tech	19.60	20	81	17	17

John Connor Series: Week 11 of College Football

Another week of humans resisting the machine driven polls here at the BSD. For how I arrive at my rankings (outside of sacrificing sheep) as well as last week's poll here is the link. Without further ado this week in Mighty Mike driven polling.....

Name	SOS	Best Wins			Losses
1. Auburn	71.61	LSU, SoCar, Arkansas, MissState
2. Oregon	72.11	Stanford, USC
3. TCU	68.7	Utah, Baylor, Oregon State
4. Wisconsin	67.62	tOSU, Iowa			MSU
5. LSU	75.07	Alabama, Miss State			Auburn
6. Boise	67.43	V-Tech, Oregon State
7. MSU	67.56	Wisconsin, Illinois			Iowa
8. Nebraska	73.08	Missouri, Ok State,K-State			Texas
9. Stanford	75.01	Arizona, USC			Oregon
10. Missouri	74.64	OU, Illinois			Nebraska
11. Ok St	72.52	Baylor, K-State, Tex A&M			Nebraska
12 Ohio State	65.41	Miami, Illinois			Wisconsin

Explanation

• While TCU's wins were somewhat undone last week with Baylor and Oregon State losing their victory at Utah was impressive. Demolishing a team that nearly everyone has as a top 20 team on the roads needs to be rewarded some TCU hops Wisconsin to the ondeck circle at #3
• Similarly LSU's victory over Alabama wasn't a fluke (they outgained 'Bama by over 100 yards) and was rewarded with a super jump. Only the teams in front of LSU I consider having better victories (remember Miss State beat Florida). Boise's victory over Oregon State as impressive continues to fall as Oregon State lost to UCLA over the weekend- which leaves V-Tech as it's only "big" win.
  
• I'll admit to feeling uncomfortable about the bunching of MSU, Nebraska , and Stanford. Overall Nebraska has the best wins but they also have the worst loss. MSU's 2nd win is the weakest of the bunch but they probably have the best overall win. Stanford has had the hardest road but beating Arizona and USC hardly should count as defining victories.
• I'm equally uncomfortable about the Missouri, Ok State, tOSU bunching for similar reasons. Ok State and tOSU have a number of tough games coming up which should allow for differentiation.