The six month marathon is over, 22 teams have been sent home, and the eight remaining contenders will now sprint to get to 11 wins and a World Series trophy. Without further ado, here’s how I see the NL and AL Divisional Series shaking out:
National League
New York Mets (1) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (4)
This will be an interesting series. For five months, the Mets beat up on the NL and their division rivals. For those same five months, the Dodgers fortunes ran the gamut, as they swam among the bottom and top-feeders in their division. During the week of July 22nd to July 28th, the Dodgers were in last place, 7.5 games behind the San Diego Padres; two weeks later, they were in first place. In short, the Dodgers are an unpredictable bunch. In the season’s final month, however, things did not go as well for the Mets, as they suffered staggering losses and will be without the services of Pedro Martinez for the entirety of the playoffs. Instead, they will have to go to battle with a rotation of Tom Glavine, Orlando “El Duque” Hernandez, and Steve Trachsel in the first three games of the best-of-five series against LA. The Dodgers will counter with Derek Lowe, Greg Maddux, and Brad Penny.
Turning to stats, the Mets compiled the lowest bullpen ERA in the majors, at 3.25. They also had the third-lowest cumulative ERA in the NL at 4.14. The Dodgers ranked eighth in bullpen ERA (4.12) and fourth in cumulative ERA (4.23), respectively. Interesting to note, however, that the Mets pitching staff allowed the most homeruns of any NL team in the playoffs (180) while the Dodgers allowed the fewest (152).
Offensively, the Mets and Dodgers are quite evenly matched. In AVG/OBP/SLG, the Mets hit to the tune of .264/.334/.445 and scored 834 runs while the Dodgers went .276/.348/.432 and scored 820 runs. In short, these two teams were among the strongest in the NL at the plate.
In a short series, with superior starting pitching and a good offense, I see no reason why the Dodgers can’t beat the Mets. Dodgers in 4.
San Diego Padres (2) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (3)
Not every playoff series can be considered “marquee.” At this point, everyone knows how badly the Cardinals played down the stretch, going 12-17 in their final 29 games. They go into October without their #2 starter Mark Mulder and without their closer Jason Isringhausen. Things are so dire that their Game 2 starter will be Jeff Weaver, a pitcher they signed off waivers in mid-July.
The pitching stats aren’t even close in this series. The Padres had the best cumulative ERA in the NL (3.87) and the second-best bullpen ERA (3.42) while the Cards ranked ninth (4.54) and seventh (4.06), respectively, in those categories.
At the plate, the Padres scored 731 runs and had a .263/.332/.416 batting line while the Cards scored 781 runs with a .269/.337/.431. While the Cards lineup features a bit more firepower with Albert Pujols and Scott Rolen, I think the big difference here will be that the Padres will attempt to manufacture more runs than the Red Birds. The Padres stole 123 bases, fourth most in the NL, and were successful in 79.8% of their steal attempts. The Cards, by contrast, stole the third-fewest bases in the NL (59), and had a 64.8% success rate. Given that the playoffs reward teams that create runs, I think the Cards will find it harder to score on the superior San Diego pitching staff.
The Cards swept the Padres out of the playoffs in 2005. I’m predicting that the Pads return the favor. Padres in 3.
American League
New York Yankees (1) vs. Detroit Tigers (4)
There are some parallels between this series and the Padres-Cardinals matchup. The Tigers, like the Cards, come into October weakened by a difficult month of September. In fact, the Tigers have only gone 19-31 in their last 50 games (.380 WP%) which would indicate that perhaps their superb first half was something of an aberration. Honestly? I’m inclined to agree.
Although the Tigers had the best team ERA (3.84), the second-best bullpen ERA (3.51), and allowed the fewest runs in all of baseball (675), those gaudy rankings are buoyed by the team’s magnificent first half. Since the All-Star break, the Tigers team ERA ranks sixth in the AL (4.32). Outside of starter Kenny Rogers none of the Tigers pitchers have any post-season experience and Rogers’ playoff failures are the stuff of legend. Although pitching is not the Yankees’ strong suit – seventh in AL ERA (4.41), eighth in bullpen ERA (4.18), sixth in fewest runs allowed (767) – the Yankees make up for it with postseason experience and the best closer in playoff (and baseball) history.
Offensively, the Yankees have the ability to overmatch any team with their rare blend of speed (139 steals, second-most in AL), patience (league-high .363 OBP), and power (210 HR, second-most in AL). As a team, the Yankees led the majors in runs scored (930) and boasted a .285/.363/.461 batting line. Although the Tigers do rank favorably in many hitting categories – third-most HR (203), fifth-most runs scored (822) – they also drew the second-fewest number of walks in the AL (430, 219 fewer than the Yankees) and struck out with the second-highest rate of regularity, amassing 1,133 punch-outs on the season. The Tigers, despite having an old-school manager from the NL, ranked 11th in steals in the AL, swiping only 60 bags and, amazingly, ranked second-to-last in the big leagues in stolen base percentage (60%).
I might be biased as a Yankee fan but the numbers just don’t add up. The Tigers could steal a game but I’m not seeing a David-Goliath series here. Yankees in 4.
Minnesota Twins (2) vs. Oakland Athletics (3)
Having already used up 971 words to this point, I’ll try to be brief. The Twins ranked second in team ERA (3.95), first in bullpen ERA (2.91), and allowed the second-fewest runs in the AL (683). They have been baseball’s hottest team, going 71-33 (.682 WP%) since June 8th. Their offense, normally an afterthought, is actually among the AL’s best, having scored 801 runs with a .287/.347/.425 batting line. Although those 801 runs rank them only eighth in the AL, the offense was scoring an average of 4.90 runs per game before the All-Star break and increased their output to 4.98 runs per game in the 76 games after the break. Morneau, Mauer, and Hunter will be a tough match for any pitching staff.
Oakland, by contrast, is a team that is in October exclusively on the strength of its pitching staff. They represent a “no-name” team with few stars and little in the way of marquee appeal. Nevertheless, they finished the season ranked third in the AL in bullpen ERA (3.60), fourth in cumulative ERA (4.21), and third in fewest runs allowed (727). Their offense is certainly not prolific (.260/.340/.412) and ranked only ninth in runs scored (771). Frank Thomas is the likely 2006 Comeback Player of the Year award winner but the rest of the A’s can be pitched to. They don’t steal bases, they don’t hit for much power, and they don’t have any one player that truly scares opponents.
Despite that, for some reason, I still see this series as being competitive. Somehow, I see it ending up like 2002, when Minnesota beat Oakland in 5 games. I’m going with that. Twins in 5.
National League
New York Mets (1) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (4)
This will be an interesting series. For five months, the Mets beat up on the NL and their division rivals. For those same five months, the Dodgers fortunes ran the gamut, as they swam among the bottom and top-feeders in their division. During the week of July 22nd to July 28th, the Dodgers were in last place, 7.5 games behind the San Diego Padres; two weeks later, they were in first place. In short, the Dodgers are an unpredictable bunch. In the season’s final month, however, things did not go as well for the Mets, as they suffered staggering losses and will be without the services of Pedro Martinez for the entirety of the playoffs. Instead, they will have to go to battle with a rotation of Tom Glavine, Orlando “El Duque” Hernandez, and Steve Trachsel in the first three games of the best-of-five series against LA. The Dodgers will counter with Derek Lowe, Greg Maddux, and Brad Penny.
Turning to stats, the Mets compiled the lowest bullpen ERA in the majors, at 3.25. They also had the third-lowest cumulative ERA in the NL at 4.14. The Dodgers ranked eighth in bullpen ERA (4.12) and fourth in cumulative ERA (4.23), respectively. Interesting to note, however, that the Mets pitching staff allowed the most homeruns of any NL team in the playoffs (180) while the Dodgers allowed the fewest (152).
Offensively, the Mets and Dodgers are quite evenly matched. In AVG/OBP/SLG, the Mets hit to the tune of .264/.334/.445 and scored 834 runs while the Dodgers went .276/.348/.432 and scored 820 runs. In short, these two teams were among the strongest in the NL at the plate.
In a short series, with superior starting pitching and a good offense, I see no reason why the Dodgers can’t beat the Mets. Dodgers in 4.
San Diego Padres (2) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (3)
Not every playoff series can be considered “marquee.” At this point, everyone knows how badly the Cardinals played down the stretch, going 12-17 in their final 29 games. They go into October without their #2 starter Mark Mulder and without their closer Jason Isringhausen. Things are so dire that their Game 2 starter will be Jeff Weaver, a pitcher they signed off waivers in mid-July.
The pitching stats aren’t even close in this series. The Padres had the best cumulative ERA in the NL (3.87) and the second-best bullpen ERA (3.42) while the Cards ranked ninth (4.54) and seventh (4.06), respectively, in those categories.
At the plate, the Padres scored 731 runs and had a .263/.332/.416 batting line while the Cards scored 781 runs with a .269/.337/.431. While the Cards lineup features a bit more firepower with Albert Pujols and Scott Rolen, I think the big difference here will be that the Padres will attempt to manufacture more runs than the Red Birds. The Padres stole 123 bases, fourth most in the NL, and were successful in 79.8% of their steal attempts. The Cards, by contrast, stole the third-fewest bases in the NL (59), and had a 64.8% success rate. Given that the playoffs reward teams that create runs, I think the Cards will find it harder to score on the superior San Diego pitching staff.
The Cards swept the Padres out of the playoffs in 2005. I’m predicting that the Pads return the favor. Padres in 3.
American League
New York Yankees (1) vs. Detroit Tigers (4)
There are some parallels between this series and the Padres-Cardinals matchup. The Tigers, like the Cards, come into October weakened by a difficult month of September. In fact, the Tigers have only gone 19-31 in their last 50 games (.380 WP%) which would indicate that perhaps their superb first half was something of an aberration. Honestly? I’m inclined to agree.
Although the Tigers had the best team ERA (3.84), the second-best bullpen ERA (3.51), and allowed the fewest runs in all of baseball (675), those gaudy rankings are buoyed by the team’s magnificent first half. Since the All-Star break, the Tigers team ERA ranks sixth in the AL (4.32). Outside of starter Kenny Rogers none of the Tigers pitchers have any post-season experience and Rogers’ playoff failures are the stuff of legend. Although pitching is not the Yankees’ strong suit – seventh in AL ERA (4.41), eighth in bullpen ERA (4.18), sixth in fewest runs allowed (767) – the Yankees make up for it with postseason experience and the best closer in playoff (and baseball) history.
Offensively, the Yankees have the ability to overmatch any team with their rare blend of speed (139 steals, second-most in AL), patience (league-high .363 OBP), and power (210 HR, second-most in AL). As a team, the Yankees led the majors in runs scored (930) and boasted a .285/.363/.461 batting line. Although the Tigers do rank favorably in many hitting categories – third-most HR (203), fifth-most runs scored (822) – they also drew the second-fewest number of walks in the AL (430, 219 fewer than the Yankees) and struck out with the second-highest rate of regularity, amassing 1,133 punch-outs on the season. The Tigers, despite having an old-school manager from the NL, ranked 11th in steals in the AL, swiping only 60 bags and, amazingly, ranked second-to-last in the big leagues in stolen base percentage (60%).
I might be biased as a Yankee fan but the numbers just don’t add up. The Tigers could steal a game but I’m not seeing a David-Goliath series here. Yankees in 4.
Minnesota Twins (2) vs. Oakland Athletics (3)
Having already used up 971 words to this point, I’ll try to be brief. The Twins ranked second in team ERA (3.95), first in bullpen ERA (2.91), and allowed the second-fewest runs in the AL (683). They have been baseball’s hottest team, going 71-33 (.682 WP%) since June 8th. Their offense, normally an afterthought, is actually among the AL’s best, having scored 801 runs with a .287/.347/.425 batting line. Although those 801 runs rank them only eighth in the AL, the offense was scoring an average of 4.90 runs per game before the All-Star break and increased their output to 4.98 runs per game in the 76 games after the break. Morneau, Mauer, and Hunter will be a tough match for any pitching staff.
Oakland, by contrast, is a team that is in October exclusively on the strength of its pitching staff. They represent a “no-name” team with few stars and little in the way of marquee appeal. Nevertheless, they finished the season ranked third in the AL in bullpen ERA (3.60), fourth in cumulative ERA (4.21), and third in fewest runs allowed (727). Their offense is certainly not prolific (.260/.340/.412) and ranked only ninth in runs scored (771). Frank Thomas is the likely 2006 Comeback Player of the Year award winner but the rest of the A’s can be pitched to. They don’t steal bases, they don’t hit for much power, and they don’t have any one player that truly scares opponents.
Despite that, for some reason, I still see this series as being competitive. Somehow, I see it ending up like 2002, when Minnesota beat Oakland in 5 games. I’m going with that. Twins in 5.
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