We all know how this will be a rematch of the 1934 and 1968 World Series, two of the more memorable Fall Classics in baseball history. We all know that the Tigers are heavy favorites to win their first World Series trophy since 1984. We all know why the Tigers are going to win. But do we, really? Buster Olney’s blog has a list of five and a half reasons why he believes the Cardinals can’t win the World Series. I’ve paraphrased them in this way:
1. Detroit’s starting rotation is better, and more rested, than that of the Cardinals;
2. The Tigers have had time to deal with minor injuries while the Cards are playing with pain;
3. Detroit’s bullpen is fully rested while the Cardinals bullpen has pitched seven times in eight days;
4. There has been more time for the Tigers to deal with the ancillary distractions that go with being in a championship series (ticket requests, travel plans, etc.);
5. The Tigers are a better team and have homefield advantage; and
5.5. The Tigers have had a chance to see their opposition while the Cards have not had the same opportunity.
Now, I’m not saying the Cardinals will win. I just don’t think it’ll be the blowout everyone’s predicting. Here are my responses to Buster’s list:
1. Detroit’s rotation was better than St. Louis’s in the regular season and there’s just no disputing that. Detroit’s team ERA was 3.84, the lowest in baseball. By contrast, the Cardinals had a team ERA of 4.54, 16th overall in the big leagues and the highest ERA of any team to qualify for October.
But a funny thing happened in October – Cardinal pitching got better as the stakes increased. For the postseason, St. Louis starting pitching has pitched 11 games and allowed only 20 ER, good for a 2.80 ERA. They have allowed 79 baserunners in 64 1/3 IP for a respectable WHIP of 1.23. Toss in their bullpen, which has thrown 32 2/3 IP with an ERA/WHIP of 3.31/1.35 and over one strikeout per inning, and you get a composite Cardinal pitching staff line of 97 IP, 2.97 ERA, 1.27 WHIP.
Detroit’s postseason pitching breakdown is as follows: starters – 51 1/3 IP, 3.33 ERA, 1.27 WHIP; bullpen – 19 2/3 IP, 1.83 ERA, 0.97 WHIP; composite: 71 IP, 2.92 ERA, 1.18 WHIP.
As far as I’m concerned, Olney’s first point seems based entirely on the regular season. He’s obviously not well-versed in the stats since October 2nd.
2. No question about it, Detroit will have had six days off. The Cards beat the Mets last night, drank some beers and champagne, and then boarded a late-night charter to arrive in Detroit. Olney’s got this one right.
3. Again, Olney’s right. Detroit’s bullpen only pitched 19 2/3 IP. St. Louis’s logged one and a half times the workload and won’t have the benefit of rest.
4. I don’t see how this is a factor at all and I find the point utterly irrelevant.
5. The Tigers had a better regular season, as was established in point #1 above. They finished with the fourth-best record in baseball and played in the most competitive division in the game. But I’m not so sure the Tigers are categorically the better team. After all, this is a team that, just like St. Louis, finished under .500 after the All-Star Break.
The Tigers are probably a little bit better than St. Louis in terms of personnel but I’m not convinced that it’s a landslide sort of victory for Detroit. Further, how much of this is being viewed through the prism of the past two weeks? Going into October, everyone was convinced that the Tigers were Yankee cannon-fodder and it was generally agreed that the Tigers-A’s series would be a dogfight between two teams that pitched well. No one predicted the Tigers to go 7-1 through two rounds of the playoffs. Similarly, everyone figured the Cards for dead, as they were even lucky to qualify for the playoffs. Instead, they dispatched the Padres with relative ease and, with the exception of one lopsided loss in Game 4 of the NLCS, fought the Mets (the NL’s best team from April 4th) with intensity.
As to the question of homefield advantage, this is a myth in the baseball world. Homefield matters in football, and probably in basketball and hockey as well (I don’t know and I don’t care). But in baseball, and especially in the World Series, having the “advantage” of a Game 7 at home has produced the following results: 16 victories for the home team in 31 World Series Game 7’s. That’s a 16-15 record for those scoring at home. What homefield advantage, I say?
5.5. Scouting and game-planning is an important part of any sport. But I can assure Mr. Olney that the Cardinals had their scouts at every single game played at an AL ballpark thus far in October. So while Pujols, Edmonds, Rolen, and the pitchers may not have been watching much TV these days, there’s more than enough video and paper reporting for these guys to be ready to face the Tigers on Saturday. After all, no matter how much information you might have, it’s still about execution. And if Nathan Robertson or Justin Verlander pitch as poorly against St. Louis as they did against the Yankees or Oakland, then any scouting reports those two guys may have read wouldn’t have amounted to anything anyway. See the ball, hit the ball. That’s what it’s always been about.
As I said before, it’s not that I think the Cards will win. But the Tigers shouldn’t go nuts buying into their own hype. Tigers in 6.
1. Detroit’s starting rotation is better, and more rested, than that of the Cardinals;
2. The Tigers have had time to deal with minor injuries while the Cards are playing with pain;
3. Detroit’s bullpen is fully rested while the Cardinals bullpen has pitched seven times in eight days;
4. There has been more time for the Tigers to deal with the ancillary distractions that go with being in a championship series (ticket requests, travel plans, etc.);
5. The Tigers are a better team and have homefield advantage; and
5.5. The Tigers have had a chance to see their opposition while the Cards have not had the same opportunity.
Now, I’m not saying the Cardinals will win. I just don’t think it’ll be the blowout everyone’s predicting. Here are my responses to Buster’s list:
1. Detroit’s rotation was better than St. Louis’s in the regular season and there’s just no disputing that. Detroit’s team ERA was 3.84, the lowest in baseball. By contrast, the Cardinals had a team ERA of 4.54, 16th overall in the big leagues and the highest ERA of any team to qualify for October.
But a funny thing happened in October – Cardinal pitching got better as the stakes increased. For the postseason, St. Louis starting pitching has pitched 11 games and allowed only 20 ER, good for a 2.80 ERA. They have allowed 79 baserunners in 64 1/3 IP for a respectable WHIP of 1.23. Toss in their bullpen, which has thrown 32 2/3 IP with an ERA/WHIP of 3.31/1.35 and over one strikeout per inning, and you get a composite Cardinal pitching staff line of 97 IP, 2.97 ERA, 1.27 WHIP.
Detroit’s postseason pitching breakdown is as follows: starters – 51 1/3 IP, 3.33 ERA, 1.27 WHIP; bullpen – 19 2/3 IP, 1.83 ERA, 0.97 WHIP; composite: 71 IP, 2.92 ERA, 1.18 WHIP.
As far as I’m concerned, Olney’s first point seems based entirely on the regular season. He’s obviously not well-versed in the stats since October 2nd.
2. No question about it, Detroit will have had six days off. The Cards beat the Mets last night, drank some beers and champagne, and then boarded a late-night charter to arrive in Detroit. Olney’s got this one right.
3. Again, Olney’s right. Detroit’s bullpen only pitched 19 2/3 IP. St. Louis’s logged one and a half times the workload and won’t have the benefit of rest.
4. I don’t see how this is a factor at all and I find the point utterly irrelevant.
5. The Tigers had a better regular season, as was established in point #1 above. They finished with the fourth-best record in baseball and played in the most competitive division in the game. But I’m not so sure the Tigers are categorically the better team. After all, this is a team that, just like St. Louis, finished under .500 after the All-Star Break.
The Tigers are probably a little bit better than St. Louis in terms of personnel but I’m not convinced that it’s a landslide sort of victory for Detroit. Further, how much of this is being viewed through the prism of the past two weeks? Going into October, everyone was convinced that the Tigers were Yankee cannon-fodder and it was generally agreed that the Tigers-A’s series would be a dogfight between two teams that pitched well. No one predicted the Tigers to go 7-1 through two rounds of the playoffs. Similarly, everyone figured the Cards for dead, as they were even lucky to qualify for the playoffs. Instead, they dispatched the Padres with relative ease and, with the exception of one lopsided loss in Game 4 of the NLCS, fought the Mets (the NL’s best team from April 4th) with intensity.
As to the question of homefield advantage, this is a myth in the baseball world. Homefield matters in football, and probably in basketball and hockey as well (I don’t know and I don’t care). But in baseball, and especially in the World Series, having the “advantage” of a Game 7 at home has produced the following results: 16 victories for the home team in 31 World Series Game 7’s. That’s a 16-15 record for those scoring at home. What homefield advantage, I say?
5.5. Scouting and game-planning is an important part of any sport. But I can assure Mr. Olney that the Cardinals had their scouts at every single game played at an AL ballpark thus far in October. So while Pujols, Edmonds, Rolen, and the pitchers may not have been watching much TV these days, there’s more than enough video and paper reporting for these guys to be ready to face the Tigers on Saturday. After all, no matter how much information you might have, it’s still about execution. And if Nathan Robertson or Justin Verlander pitch as poorly against St. Louis as they did against the Yankees or Oakland, then any scouting reports those two guys may have read wouldn’t have amounted to anything anyway. See the ball, hit the ball. That’s what it’s always been about.
As I said before, it’s not that I think the Cards will win. But the Tigers shouldn’t go nuts buying into their own hype. Tigers in 6.
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