Friday, October 06, 2006

Taking A Mulligan

As all beginner golfers know, sometimes a poor shot off the tee deserves a “do-over.” Thanks to this wild hook into the woods and onto the adjacent fairway, I’m taking another crack at the first round of the baseball playoffs.

National League

New York Mets (1) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (4)

Watching the first two games of this series has been very instructive in answering the question “Why did the Boston Red Sox fire Grady Little?” While everyone who plays for him thinks he’s one hell of a nice guy, he knows nothing (NOTHING!) about how to manage a pitching staff.

Exhibit A – Why use Brad Penny, your announced Game 3 starter, in a relief situation in the bottom of the seventh inning of Game 1? If you want to find out just how injured he is, pitch him in a bullpen session or arrange for a simulated game. Don’t throw him out there in a tie game on the road less than 15 minutes after your hitters have managed to come back from three runs down.

Exhibit B – Why pick a rookie with a total of 65 major league innings under his belt for a must-win Game 2 start when you have a Hall of Famer on your team? The Hall of Famer went 6-3 with a 3.30 ERA in 12 starts for the Dodgers. The rookie? He didn’t fare quite as well, going 1-5 with a 4.22 ERA. Now the Hall of Famer will start Game 3 in an elimination game. And guess who pitches for the Dodgers in Game 4 (if necessary)...the goat from Exhibit A, Brad Penny.

Original Prediction: Dodgers in 4.
Mulligan Prediction: Mets in 3.

San Diego Padres (2) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (3)

Through two games, Albert Pujols has five hits, two runs scored, and three RBI. The Padres have 10 hits, one run scored, and one RBI. In short, the Padres suck and can’t be relied upon the postseason. Ever.

Original Prediction: Padres in 3.
Mulligan Prediction: Cardinals in 3.

American League

New York Yankees (1) vs. Detroit Tigers (4)

Following the script of the 2005 ALDS, the Yankees had control of the series in Game 1 and midway through Game 2, lost focus near the end and gave up a winnable game. Last year, it was ARod’s unfortunate error in the bottom of the sixth inning. This year, it was Mussina throwing wild pitches in consecutive innings, which set up two cheapie runs for the Tigers.

There is no doubt that by the end of 2007, Mussina will be the top statistical pitcher to not make it into Cooperstown, supplanting Jack Morris from atop his perch as the current holder of the “Best of the Rest” trophy. But there is also no doubt that Mike Mussina is not a big game pitcher. He’s had some good moments in his post-season career but the truth is that he’s 7-8 in 21 starts. Sure he’s been bitten by some bad luck. After all, his career post-season ERA is still only 3.40. But when the Yankees needed him most yesterday, he crumbled.

The Yankees are now faced with the task of winning with Randy Johnson and Jaret Wright, neither of whom is any good.

Original Prediction: Yankees in 4.
Mulligan Prediction: Tigers in 4.

Minnesota Twins (2) vs. Oakland Athletics (3)

The A’s went into Minnesota and did just enough to beat Johan Santana in Game 1. Torii Hunter personally gift-wrapped the Game 2 loss. Now the series goes back to Oakland with the A’s having three chances at overcoming their recent demons. The A’s have been down this road before in 2000, 2001, and 2003 but have failed to ice the series. This might be their year. I can’t tell you how or why the A’s continue to win but I just think the Twins are deflated and Torii’s late September braggadocios will come back to haunt him.

Original Prediction: Twins in 5.
Mulligan Prediction: Athletics in 4.

* * * * *

Should my mulligan predictions come true, I’m going to cut short any further writing about the 2006 baseball season until the BBWAA Awards are handed out. My Back Seat Drivers contract requires that I be the official baseball columnist for this site only as long as the Yankees are playing. Once they’re dead, my interest in baseball flies south for the winter.

So, dear readers, I’ll either be writing an NL/ALCS preview next Monday, or I’ll be moving onto other subjects. It’s been great being the voice of baseball for you all and I hope you’ve enjoyed reading as much as I’ve enjoyed writing.

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