Monday, October 22, 2007

A Little World Series Comparison

Now that we know exactly which team will play the Rockies in the World Series, I figured I would do a comparison of both teams. I will be blunt and say that my analysis will probably side towards the Rockies a bit, since I am from Denver, but I will try and give a subjective look at both teams by position, defense, starters, bullpen, intangibles, atmosphere and coaching.

C: Torrealba vs. Varitek. Torrealba - 47 runs, 8 HRs, 47 RBIs, .699 OPS, .323 OBP, .255 AVG, Fielding % 991, Passed Balls 4. Varitek - 57 runs, 17 HRs, 68 RBIs, .788 OPS, .255 AVG, .367 OBP, Fielding % .994, Passed Balls 4. The edge has gotta go to Varitek here, he hits for more power, has a pretty similar fielding percentage as Torrealba but doesn't have as cool of a first name and his name could be Grand Moff Tarkin.

1B: Helton vs. Youklis. Helton - 85 runs, 17 HRs, 91 RBIs, .928 OPS, OPS+ 133, .320 AVG, .434 OBP, Fielding % .999, RF9 (Range Factor for nine innings) 10.38. Youklis - 85 runs, 16 HRs, 83 RBIs, 843 OPS, OPS+ 117, .390 OBP, Fielding % 1.000, RF9 8.88. The edge goes to Helton. He is a better in just about every batting category, fielding category and he has far better facial hair and tends to not look like David Wells.

2B: Matsui vs. Pedroia. Matsui - 84 runs, 4 HRs, 37 RBIs, .747 OPS, OPS+ 87, .288 AVG, .342 OBP, Fielding % .992, RF9 5.33. Pedroia - 86 runs, 8 HRs, 50 RBIs, .822 OPS, OPS+ 112, AVG .317, .380 OBP, Fielding % .990, RF9 4.52. This is pretty much an even argument. Matsui is more of a lead off hitter whereas Pedroia has more power. Matsui had 32 steals in 36 attempts. I think the edge is pretty even. Matsui is a better fielder but Pedroia has more pop.

SS: Tulowitzki vs. Lugo. Tulo - 104 runs, 24 HRs, 99 RBIs, .838 OPS, OPS+108, .291 AVG, .359 OBP, Fielding % .987, RF9 5.39. Lugo - 71 runs, 8 HRs, 73 RBIs, .643 OPS, OPS+65, AVG .237, .294 OBP, Fielding % .968, RF9 4.21. The edge has gotta go to Tulo, he has more pop in his bat, is a vacuum at SS and just is all around a better hitter. If you take the SS/2B positions I would still go with an edge to the Rockies both offensive and defensively.

3B: Atkins vs. Lowell. Atkins - 83 runs, 25 HRs, 111 RBIs, .853 OPS, OPS+121, .301 AVG, .367 OBP, Fielding % .971, RF9 2.29. Lowell - 79 runs, 21 HRs, 120 RBIs, .879 OPS, OPS+124, .324 AVG, .378 OBP, Fielding % .961, RF9 2.51. This is pretty evenly split, but I would give a slight edge to Lowell because he has more pop in his bat and has been to the big show before.

LF: Holliday vs. Manny. Holliday - 120 runs, 36 HRs, 137 RBIs, 1.012 OPS, OPS+150, .340 AVG, .405 OBP, Fielding % .990, RF9 1.97. Manny 84 runs, 20 HRs, 88 RBIs, .881 OPS, OPS+126, .296 AVG, .388 OBP, Fielding % .990, RF9 1.72. Holliday has had an MVP season, and could possibly go on a tear in the world series. Manny is one of the most feared righties in my life time but I would give the edge to Holliday.

CF: Taveras/Spilbourghs vs. Crisp/Ellsbury. Am taking the average and total amounts for both groups. Taveras - 104 runs, 13 HRs, 75 RBIs, .798 OPS, OPS+ 100, AVG .309, .365 OBP, Fielding % .984, RF9 2.49. Crisp/Ellsbury - 105 runs, 9 HRs, 78 RBIs, .807 OPS, OPS+ 107, AVG .310, . 362 OBP, Fielding % .994, RF9 3.14. This is a pretty even category too. Both have speeding guys and up and coming youngsters. I think Crisp/Ellsbury have better defense, but you can't look over the speed on the base paths that Tavaras gives you. The one two duo of Taveras/Matsui gives you around 70 steals at the top of the order.

RF: Hawpe vs. Drew. Hawpe - 80 runs, 29 HRs, 116 RBIs, .926 OPS, OPS+ 129, AVG .291, .387 OBP, Fielding % .977, RF9 1.94. Drew - 84 runs, 10 HRs, 64 RBISs, .796 OPS, OPS+105, .270 AVG, .373 OBP, Fielding % .923, RF9 1.82. There is no comparison here, Hawpe had a better offensive year than Drew hands down. He had more power, a better average, is a better fielder and all around a better guy. And he makes 14 million more a year than Hawpe. Who knew you reward medriocity with lots of money, only in Boston.

DH: There is no argument here. Big Papi is one of the best DHs in all of baseball. I don't know who the Rockies will throw out there for the DH, but he won't be as good as Papi.

Starting Pitching: With the postseason veterans of Beckett, Mr. Give My Opinion, Annoying Fuckface, Bleeding Sock who Needs to Join Rush Limbaugh on a Plane with the Big Bopper, you have to give the advantage to the Red Sox. However, I would say that the 3rd and 4th game guys especially since Dice K and Wakefield are going to start out here in Colorado, have to favor the two rookie guys since there is really no humidity (my bloody noses and really dry skin) out here in Colorado. I still give a pretty significant advantage to the Red Sox pitchers.

Relievers: Boston's stats 3.10 ERA, .226 AVG, 1.214 WHIP, 7.59 K/9 IP. Colorado's stats: 3.85 ERA, .256 AVG, 1.299 WHIP, 6.47 K/9 IP. The edge goes to the Red Sox because Richard "Boner" Stabone Papelboner has been lights out this year. He only blew 3 saves all year. Corpas blew 3 but in a far greater amount of time.

Intagibles: Ok, Rocktober, however goofy it sounds has hit this town like a ton of bricks. The Rockies have won 21 of their last 22, they are tied with the Big Red Machine for winning 7 straight games. People are waiting in line like U2 is coming to town to buy tickets. If you watch the games, fans in Colorado have been absolutely crazy. Boston fans have not been as crazy. There is a wave here that I feel that perhaps Bill Simmons felt in 2004 that I don't think is going to stop. The general attitude in the clubhouse is much more collegial in the Rockies clubhouse. These are guys that have played with each other from being drafted by the Rockies, played at Colorado Springs together. Holliday, Hawpe, Atkins, Helton, Tulo all came up in this organization. It just makes sense that they will win.

Another key factor is the score 21-5. That is combined total of runs of the two teams in H2H meetings in June. The Rockies owned the series 2-1. This included 6 runs off Josh Beckett, his first loss of the year. It also included 5 runs off Schilling.

Prediction: Rockies in 7. Holliday will hit a Grand Slam off Manny's head in left to win it, Bill Simmons will try to catch the ball, but he is too busy performing analingus on Tom Brady while Kevin Millar tries to jump in to stop Holliday at the plate, but slips on his bald head.

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