Going back to a discussion we had a few days ago about what Soriano's new home address will mean to his stats going forward, and in light of today's Vazquez-to-Chicago trade, I've decided to do some research on a baseball metric called "Weighted Park Factors." As the title indicates, this metric tries to create an average measure for certain events that happen in all baseball stadiums around the country -- runs, hits, doubles, homers, walks and strikeouts -- and then plots out where each ballpark ranks against the average.
Unfortunately, I am unable to post the entire table here (I have no idea how to link a word or excel file onto the blog) but I will share some interesting findings:
With respect to Soriano, he is leaving Texas (1.16 R / 1.08 H / 1.10 2B / 1.20 HR / 0.98 BB / 0.98 K) and going to Washington (0.88 R / 0.88 H / 0.92 2B / 0.76 HR / 0.98 BB / 1.06 K) where 1.00 is average. In effect, regardless of what his home-road splits were or the overall strength/weakness of the lineups he has played for or will play for, he is leaving an extreme hitter's park for an extreme pitcher's park. Look at the differences in R, H, 2B and HR; they go down precipitously. I'm not touching Soriano on my 2006 fantasy teams unless he somehow slips into the 10th round or later.
With respect to Vazquez, he is leaving Arizona (1.12 R / 1.06 H / 1.14 2B / 1.14 HR / 1.06 BB / 0.96 K) and going to Chicago (1.06 R / 1.02 H / 0.94 2B / 1.38 HR / 1.06 BB / 1.00 K). He is changing cities but staying in an extreme hitter's park. The only significant difference between the two is the dramatic rise in average HR's in Chicago. Believe it or not, US Cellular Field had the highest rating on this scale in terms of HR outcomes. For a pitcher that has given up 70 HR over the last two years and is coming back to the world of DH's...I don't expect much better results from Vazquez than what he's shown the last two seasons.
Of course, I'm not arguing that Park Factor is the end all for player analysis. But it is interesting to see how these ballparks can affect a player's output.
If anyone is interested in the whole table, email me and I'll send it along...
Unfortunately, I am unable to post the entire table here (I have no idea how to link a word or excel file onto the blog) but I will share some interesting findings:
With respect to Soriano, he is leaving Texas (1.16 R / 1.08 H / 1.10 2B / 1.20 HR / 0.98 BB / 0.98 K) and going to Washington (0.88 R / 0.88 H / 0.92 2B / 0.76 HR / 0.98 BB / 1.06 K) where 1.00 is average. In effect, regardless of what his home-road splits were or the overall strength/weakness of the lineups he has played for or will play for, he is leaving an extreme hitter's park for an extreme pitcher's park. Look at the differences in R, H, 2B and HR; they go down precipitously. I'm not touching Soriano on my 2006 fantasy teams unless he somehow slips into the 10th round or later.
With respect to Vazquez, he is leaving Arizona (1.12 R / 1.06 H / 1.14 2B / 1.14 HR / 1.06 BB / 0.96 K) and going to Chicago (1.06 R / 1.02 H / 0.94 2B / 1.38 HR / 1.06 BB / 1.00 K). He is changing cities but staying in an extreme hitter's park. The only significant difference between the two is the dramatic rise in average HR's in Chicago. Believe it or not, US Cellular Field had the highest rating on this scale in terms of HR outcomes. For a pitcher that has given up 70 HR over the last two years and is coming back to the world of DH's...I don't expect much better results from Vazquez than what he's shown the last two seasons.
Of course, I'm not arguing that Park Factor is the end all for player analysis. But it is interesting to see how these ballparks can affect a player's output.
If anyone is interested in the whole table, email me and I'll send it along...
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