Sunday, November 12, 2006

The Ghost of Neifi Perez, or, Baseball Economics Gone Awry

In his first two full seasons, Wade Miller posted a combined 31-12 record for the Houston Astros, with a 3.35 ERA and 327 strikeouts. Miller and Oswalt formed what was thought to be the future backbone of the Houston rotation.

Unfortunately, starting in 2004, Miller has fought pretty serious injuries. His 2004 campaign ended in June with rotator cuff surgery, and after making only 16 starts in Boston in '05, he had arthroscopic surgery that kept him out all the way until late 2006.

By then, he was with the Cubs - having signed a one-year, $1 million deal. At the time, I lauded the Miller signing, on the theory that he was a good enough pitcher to merit a $1m gamble. Of course, we expected him back in May - not August - and so the Cubs ended up losing that bet. Nevertheless, in the world of baseball economics, it was a sensible move.

Last week, the Cubs re-signed Miller...for $1.5m! Huh?!?! How is it that a guy who makes only five starts, going 0-2 with a 4.57 ERA, gets a pay raise? Is that a reflection of a stupid decision by Cubs brass (I know, wouldn't be the first), or of the crazy world of baseball in which someone with Miller's talent gets more money even as he still fights back from major surgeries?

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