I feel like a broken record. Every time I promise to be more diligent in posting, the demands of my job interfere with my ability to be held to that promise. Anyway, this post will be extremely long so I apologize in advance. Without further ado, here’s a wrap-up of the extremely busy hot stove season that has kicked off...
1. Mike Mussina has re-signed with the Yankees for two years and $22.5M. Given the current paucity of quality starters on the free agent market, the Yankees had to get this done quickly. Fortunately they were able to do so, and at a relatively good price.
Although Mussina will be 38 years old heading into the 2007 season, there is enough evidence to suggest that he will pitch at or above league-average quality for at least the life of the contract. The Yankees also pointed to Mussina’s willingness to work with the organization’s young pitchers as a hidden positive in bringing him back for another tour of duty. As the Yanks are likely to flood their major league roster with at least three to four youngsters over the next 18 months, having a veteran who knows how to pitch effectively by changing speeds and giving hitters different looks will be a minor, but nonetheless valuable, bonus.
2. The Red Sox have won the rights to negotiate exclusively with Seibu Lions pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka and his agent Scott Boras by posting a record $51.1M.. Early indications are that Matsuzaka and Boras will come to terms on a four-year contract worth somewhere between $9-11M.
I will most likely comment on Matsuzaka again later in the winter once his deal is finalized (assuming, at least, that Boston bid that staggering amount because they actually want him as their #2 starter behind Curt Schilling). In the meantime, my feeling is that Boston most likely tampered with the integrity of the process and will never pay the full $51.1M to Seibu. As was reported back in 2001, the Mariners posted a then-record sum of roughly $13M and were rumored to have paid only a fraction of that amount. I know it sounds like sour grapes coming from a Yankee fan. Whatever. The only good thing to come out of this for Yankee fans is that Boston and their corrupt, despicable ownership can never play the role of a poor, small-market team struggling to compete with the Yankees. Boston has changed baseball’s economics in a way the Yankees never have. I hope all Red Sox fans enjoy listening to the sort of garbage Yankee fans are now used to.
3. The Mets came to terms with Orlando “El Duque” Hernandez on a 2 year, $12M contract. Given the cost of starting pitching, $6M for a back-end starter isn’t outrageous. Hernandez is getting long in the tooth and he’s shown increasing fragility over the past few years but he’s certainly not a bad guy to keep around because...
4. Tom Glavine is a free agent. The Mets declined his $14M option and now have to figure out if they can come to terms with Glavine quickly. With Pedro Martinez likely to miss at least half of 2007 following rotator cuff surgery, Glavine’s departure would likely spell doom for the Mets pitching staff. Glavine is only 10 wins away from 300 and is most likely looking for a two year contract. Unless a third team blows the Mets out of the water, Glavine’s decision will end up being a derby between staying in New York and going back to Atlanta.
5. The Cubs signed utility infielder/outfielder Mark DeRosa to a three year, $13M contract. DeRosa’s ability to play all four infield positions (as well as in the outfield) makes him a useful addition to a team that got very little production from its middle infielders. Beyond that, I don’t have much to say on this deal except to say that although three years might be a bit excessive, the per-season salary is extremely sensible given the current market.
6. Of course, any discussion on the sudden irrationality of the market should begin and end with these same Chicago Cubs. The Cubs’ signing of the 31 year old Alfonso Soriano to an eight year, $136M contract with a full no-trade clause borders on lunacy. There’s simply no other way to put it. He’s not as good as the three players who receive a higher per annum salary (Alex Rodriguez/Derek Jeter/Manny Ramirez). He’s too old to be given an eight year deal. He’s a somewhat apathetic player in the outfield. Despite posting a career high .351 OBP in 2006, he still posted a career high 160 strikeout season. Most importantly, Soriano isn’t a pitcher. The Cubs may score more runs than last year (they scored the 2nd fewest runs in the NL in 2006) but as long as that team is waiting around for Mark Prior to get back on track, they’re still at least 2-3 pitchers away from truly contending for a World Series ring.
I don’t want to belabor the point here. All I can say is that I think Soriano is a decent fantasy player. He’s quite an overrated player in real life. And to Cubs fans, I say this: don’t throw your remote every time Soriano strikes out on a breaking pitch on the outside corner.
7. The Mets continue reshaping their roster in the image of GM Omar Minaya. This time, they’ve swapped Cliff Floyd out, choosing not to re-sign him, and instead replaced him with Moises Alou. Alou gets a one-year, $7.5M contract to play LF and murder lefty pitching (.349 AVG / 1.093 OPS). For the money, it’s not a bad move. The only problem with Alou is that he’s an injury risk.
8. Frank Thomas signed a 2 year, $18M contract to be Toronto’s full time DH and hit cleanup between Vernon Wells and Troy Glaus. Oakland lost their only big-time thumper and the A’s loss is the Blue Jays’ gain. As with Alou, Thomas represents a serious injury risk so there is no guarantee that the Blue Jays get a full season out of their new cleanup hitter. But if he plays the whole year, he’s almost guaranteed to put up big numbers in that hitter’s paradise. The AL East just got that much tougher on pitchers...
9. The Dodgers and Nomar Garciaparra came to an agreement on a two year, $18.5M contract. Nomar started breaking down in the second half of the season but he adapted well to first base and, when healthy, hit consistently in the middle of the Dodgers lineup. The injury risk is always high with Nomar but the Dodgers couldn’t afford to let him go in light of J.D. Drew’s defection.
10. Staying with the Dodgers, they committed the second act of sheer lunacy this hot stove season, spending $45M for five years worth of Juan Pierre. I am not a big Juan Pierre fan. A player whose primary function is getting on base and causing distractions for the other team should be able to get on base at a better rate than the .330 OBP Pierre posted for the Cubs this past season. Furthermore, an “elite” base-stealer should be able to swipe at a rate better than Pierre’s 74% success rate. By comparison, Carl Crawford (83%) and Jose Reyes (81%) are much better in the stolen base department, and provide far more power in the lineup. Considering the Dodgers made it to the playoffs with Kenny Lofton in CF at $3M, it seems silly to triple the outlay without triple the output. Toss in the fact that the Dodgers lost J.D. Drew but have Rafael Furcal and Wilson Betemit as potential leadoff hitters and this team seems destined to struggle at the plate with too many light-hitting small-ballers.
11. The Angels added Justin Speier to what has been one of the best bullpens in baseball the past several seasons. With a four year, $18M contract, the Angels now have an excess of arms in the pen and may be preparing to move one or more of those arms in exchange for the big hitter they were unable to acquire when Aramis Ramirez re-signed with the Cubs.
12. Finally, the Texas Rangers replaced Mark DeRosa with Frank Catalanotto, giving him the identical contract that DeRosa received from Chicago (3 years, $13M). Frankie the Cat is a good little player, capable of playing both LF and RF and even a little infield. He’s a veteran and happens to own Yankee pitching. Toronto will miss him, but not that much. And Texas will be happy to have a guy like that in their lineup, hitting around Michael Young and Gary Matthews.
Finally, a brief rundown on the recent award-winners. Johan Santana and Brandon Webb won the AL/NL Cy Young, Jim Leyland and Joe Girardi won the 2006 AL/NL Manager of the Year, and Ryan Howard won the NL MVP. I know promised to weigh in with my analysis on all the award-winners but I assumed that none of the guys I “hoped” would win would actually come through. So far, every single choice has been the correct one. It’s kind of nice (except that now I have nothing to bitch about)...EXCEPT for the egregious error made by the BBWAA in picking Justin Morneau over Derek Jeter.
For the statistical analysis, I’ll leave it to Steve Lombardi, curator of the online baseball forum Netshrine.com and author of the book The Baseball Same Game. A simple examination of the stats makes Jeter’s case quite well, in my opinion. He led the AL in Win Shares and VORP, which is to say, he was the single-most indispensable everyday player in the American League in 2006.
For the Yankee bias analysis, I will simply make my case by showing the vote breakdown. Someone actually voted Jeter sixth? Are you kidding me? And the fact that Johan Santana got exactly one first place vote, robbing Jeter of a share of the award, seems awfully fishy to me. It almost seems as though Santana’s one vote for first place was intended to knock Jeter down.
I’ve long believed that all votes should be made public so that the voters face greater accountability for their decisions and give a bit of transparency to the process. I am reminded of the MVP voting for the 1999-2000 NBA season when Shaquille O’Neal missed being a unanimous selection for the MVP by one vote, which was given to seventh-place finisher Allen Iverson. Obviously that voter didn’t impact the award being given to the right player, but it cheapens the process. Those who vote for these awards are entrusted with the legacy and historical importance of these players. To deny a deserving player of an award based solely because of the fact that he plays for a team that is despised by many fans and pundits (and even the commissioner of the game) is a petty and irresponsible way to go about things.
Hell, even ESPN, known for spawning this era of mass-media Yankee-Hating, got it right.
From Keith Law:
“The AL’s voters couldn’t even correctly identify the most valuable Twin, never mind wrapping their heads around a whole league. The reality of baseball is that a great offensive player at an up-the-middle position is substantially more valuable than a slightly better hitter at a corner position. And when that up-the-middle player is one of the best fielders at his position in baseball, there’s absolutely no comparison. Joe Mauer was more valuable than Justin Morneau this past season. If you don’t understand that, you don’t understand the first thing about baseball.
Even by the counting stats that the dinosaur voters have favored for as long as the MVP award has existed, Morneau’s season wasn’t all that impressive. He tied for 12th in the AL in homers. He was second in RBI – seven behind David Ortiz – and just nine ahead of the least clutchy player to ever be clutch, Alex Rodriguez. He was seventh in batting average, a few miles south of Mauer and Jeter, the other major MVP candidate. It’s hard to fathom why any voter would put Morneau at the top of his ballot with so many obviously better candidates – Mauer, Jeter, Ortiz, Jermaine Dye, the unanimous Cy Young Award winner Johan Santana, or the criminally neglected Carlos Guillen (the best player on the AL pennant winner) – and in reality, more than half of the voters did just that. If you don’t watch the games, fellas, don’t fill out your ballots.”
It’s over. There’s no point in crying over spilled milk, as the expression goes. But I hope Jeter, famous for holding grudges, remembers this slight. And I hope that he finds out which writer or writers conspired to deliver the award to another, less-worthy candidate. My money’s on Jeter to win the award outright in 2007. To the writers around the country that don’t take their jobs seriously enough, here’s a big “Fuck You”. There are people like me out there who would do anything to be in your shoes and, unlike yourselves, we actually know baseball and watch the games.
1. Mike Mussina has re-signed with the Yankees for two years and $22.5M. Given the current paucity of quality starters on the free agent market, the Yankees had to get this done quickly. Fortunately they were able to do so, and at a relatively good price.
Although Mussina will be 38 years old heading into the 2007 season, there is enough evidence to suggest that he will pitch at or above league-average quality for at least the life of the contract. The Yankees also pointed to Mussina’s willingness to work with the organization’s young pitchers as a hidden positive in bringing him back for another tour of duty. As the Yanks are likely to flood their major league roster with at least three to four youngsters over the next 18 months, having a veteran who knows how to pitch effectively by changing speeds and giving hitters different looks will be a minor, but nonetheless valuable, bonus.
2. The Red Sox have won the rights to negotiate exclusively with Seibu Lions pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka and his agent Scott Boras by posting a record $51.1M.. Early indications are that Matsuzaka and Boras will come to terms on a four-year contract worth somewhere between $9-11M.
I will most likely comment on Matsuzaka again later in the winter once his deal is finalized (assuming, at least, that Boston bid that staggering amount because they actually want him as their #2 starter behind Curt Schilling). In the meantime, my feeling is that Boston most likely tampered with the integrity of the process and will never pay the full $51.1M to Seibu. As was reported back in 2001, the Mariners posted a then-record sum of roughly $13M and were rumored to have paid only a fraction of that amount. I know it sounds like sour grapes coming from a Yankee fan. Whatever. The only good thing to come out of this for Yankee fans is that Boston and their corrupt, despicable ownership can never play the role of a poor, small-market team struggling to compete with the Yankees. Boston has changed baseball’s economics in a way the Yankees never have. I hope all Red Sox fans enjoy listening to the sort of garbage Yankee fans are now used to.
3. The Mets came to terms with Orlando “El Duque” Hernandez on a 2 year, $12M contract. Given the cost of starting pitching, $6M for a back-end starter isn’t outrageous. Hernandez is getting long in the tooth and he’s shown increasing fragility over the past few years but he’s certainly not a bad guy to keep around because...
4. Tom Glavine is a free agent. The Mets declined his $14M option and now have to figure out if they can come to terms with Glavine quickly. With Pedro Martinez likely to miss at least half of 2007 following rotator cuff surgery, Glavine’s departure would likely spell doom for the Mets pitching staff. Glavine is only 10 wins away from 300 and is most likely looking for a two year contract. Unless a third team blows the Mets out of the water, Glavine’s decision will end up being a derby between staying in New York and going back to Atlanta.
5. The Cubs signed utility infielder/outfielder Mark DeRosa to a three year, $13M contract. DeRosa’s ability to play all four infield positions (as well as in the outfield) makes him a useful addition to a team that got very little production from its middle infielders. Beyond that, I don’t have much to say on this deal except to say that although three years might be a bit excessive, the per-season salary is extremely sensible given the current market.
6. Of course, any discussion on the sudden irrationality of the market should begin and end with these same Chicago Cubs. The Cubs’ signing of the 31 year old Alfonso Soriano to an eight year, $136M contract with a full no-trade clause borders on lunacy. There’s simply no other way to put it. He’s not as good as the three players who receive a higher per annum salary (Alex Rodriguez/Derek Jeter/Manny Ramirez). He’s too old to be given an eight year deal. He’s a somewhat apathetic player in the outfield. Despite posting a career high .351 OBP in 2006, he still posted a career high 160 strikeout season. Most importantly, Soriano isn’t a pitcher. The Cubs may score more runs than last year (they scored the 2nd fewest runs in the NL in 2006) but as long as that team is waiting around for Mark Prior to get back on track, they’re still at least 2-3 pitchers away from truly contending for a World Series ring.
I don’t want to belabor the point here. All I can say is that I think Soriano is a decent fantasy player. He’s quite an overrated player in real life. And to Cubs fans, I say this: don’t throw your remote every time Soriano strikes out on a breaking pitch on the outside corner.
7. The Mets continue reshaping their roster in the image of GM Omar Minaya. This time, they’ve swapped Cliff Floyd out, choosing not to re-sign him, and instead replaced him with Moises Alou. Alou gets a one-year, $7.5M contract to play LF and murder lefty pitching (.349 AVG / 1.093 OPS). For the money, it’s not a bad move. The only problem with Alou is that he’s an injury risk.
8. Frank Thomas signed a 2 year, $18M contract to be Toronto’s full time DH and hit cleanup between Vernon Wells and Troy Glaus. Oakland lost their only big-time thumper and the A’s loss is the Blue Jays’ gain. As with Alou, Thomas represents a serious injury risk so there is no guarantee that the Blue Jays get a full season out of their new cleanup hitter. But if he plays the whole year, he’s almost guaranteed to put up big numbers in that hitter’s paradise. The AL East just got that much tougher on pitchers...
9. The Dodgers and Nomar Garciaparra came to an agreement on a two year, $18.5M contract. Nomar started breaking down in the second half of the season but he adapted well to first base and, when healthy, hit consistently in the middle of the Dodgers lineup. The injury risk is always high with Nomar but the Dodgers couldn’t afford to let him go in light of J.D. Drew’s defection.
10. Staying with the Dodgers, they committed the second act of sheer lunacy this hot stove season, spending $45M for five years worth of Juan Pierre. I am not a big Juan Pierre fan. A player whose primary function is getting on base and causing distractions for the other team should be able to get on base at a better rate than the .330 OBP Pierre posted for the Cubs this past season. Furthermore, an “elite” base-stealer should be able to swipe at a rate better than Pierre’s 74% success rate. By comparison, Carl Crawford (83%) and Jose Reyes (81%) are much better in the stolen base department, and provide far more power in the lineup. Considering the Dodgers made it to the playoffs with Kenny Lofton in CF at $3M, it seems silly to triple the outlay without triple the output. Toss in the fact that the Dodgers lost J.D. Drew but have Rafael Furcal and Wilson Betemit as potential leadoff hitters and this team seems destined to struggle at the plate with too many light-hitting small-ballers.
11. The Angels added Justin Speier to what has been one of the best bullpens in baseball the past several seasons. With a four year, $18M contract, the Angels now have an excess of arms in the pen and may be preparing to move one or more of those arms in exchange for the big hitter they were unable to acquire when Aramis Ramirez re-signed with the Cubs.
12. Finally, the Texas Rangers replaced Mark DeRosa with Frank Catalanotto, giving him the identical contract that DeRosa received from Chicago (3 years, $13M). Frankie the Cat is a good little player, capable of playing both LF and RF and even a little infield. He’s a veteran and happens to own Yankee pitching. Toronto will miss him, but not that much. And Texas will be happy to have a guy like that in their lineup, hitting around Michael Young and Gary Matthews.
Finally, a brief rundown on the recent award-winners. Johan Santana and Brandon Webb won the AL/NL Cy Young, Jim Leyland and Joe Girardi won the 2006 AL/NL Manager of the Year, and Ryan Howard won the NL MVP. I know promised to weigh in with my analysis on all the award-winners but I assumed that none of the guys I “hoped” would win would actually come through. So far, every single choice has been the correct one. It’s kind of nice (except that now I have nothing to bitch about)...EXCEPT for the egregious error made by the BBWAA in picking Justin Morneau over Derek Jeter.
For the statistical analysis, I’ll leave it to Steve Lombardi, curator of the online baseball forum Netshrine.com and author of the book The Baseball Same Game. A simple examination of the stats makes Jeter’s case quite well, in my opinion. He led the AL in Win Shares and VORP, which is to say, he was the single-most indispensable everyday player in the American League in 2006.
For the Yankee bias analysis, I will simply make my case by showing the vote breakdown. Someone actually voted Jeter sixth? Are you kidding me? And the fact that Johan Santana got exactly one first place vote, robbing Jeter of a share of the award, seems awfully fishy to me. It almost seems as though Santana’s one vote for first place was intended to knock Jeter down.
I’ve long believed that all votes should be made public so that the voters face greater accountability for their decisions and give a bit of transparency to the process. I am reminded of the MVP voting for the 1999-2000 NBA season when Shaquille O’Neal missed being a unanimous selection for the MVP by one vote, which was given to seventh-place finisher Allen Iverson. Obviously that voter didn’t impact the award being given to the right player, but it cheapens the process. Those who vote for these awards are entrusted with the legacy and historical importance of these players. To deny a deserving player of an award based solely because of the fact that he plays for a team that is despised by many fans and pundits (and even the commissioner of the game) is a petty and irresponsible way to go about things.
Hell, even ESPN, known for spawning this era of mass-media Yankee-Hating, got it right.
From Keith Law:
“The AL’s voters couldn’t even correctly identify the most valuable Twin, never mind wrapping their heads around a whole league. The reality of baseball is that a great offensive player at an up-the-middle position is substantially more valuable than a slightly better hitter at a corner position. And when that up-the-middle player is one of the best fielders at his position in baseball, there’s absolutely no comparison. Joe Mauer was more valuable than Justin Morneau this past season. If you don’t understand that, you don’t understand the first thing about baseball.
Even by the counting stats that the dinosaur voters have favored for as long as the MVP award has existed, Morneau’s season wasn’t all that impressive. He tied for 12th in the AL in homers. He was second in RBI – seven behind David Ortiz – and just nine ahead of the least clutchy player to ever be clutch, Alex Rodriguez. He was seventh in batting average, a few miles south of Mauer and Jeter, the other major MVP candidate. It’s hard to fathom why any voter would put Morneau at the top of his ballot with so many obviously better candidates – Mauer, Jeter, Ortiz, Jermaine Dye, the unanimous Cy Young Award winner Johan Santana, or the criminally neglected Carlos Guillen (the best player on the AL pennant winner) – and in reality, more than half of the voters did just that. If you don’t watch the games, fellas, don’t fill out your ballots.”
It’s over. There’s no point in crying over spilled milk, as the expression goes. But I hope Jeter, famous for holding grudges, remembers this slight. And I hope that he finds out which writer or writers conspired to deliver the award to another, less-worthy candidate. My money’s on Jeter to win the award outright in 2007. To the writers around the country that don’t take their jobs seriously enough, here’s a big “Fuck You”. There are people like me out there who would do anything to be in your shoes and, unlike yourselves, we actually know baseball and watch the games.
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