As I am mainly obsessed with baseball, I leave most of the NFL columns to Mighty, Gutsy, and Colonel Sanders. But King’s most recent MMQB raised a few issues for me that I feel the need to comment on. Love him or hate him, Peter King’s weekly MMQB column is important reading for any NFL fan. Personally, I straddle the fine line between appreciating some of his insights and tiring of his joyless, overly-moralistic, bourgeois take on everything. I also find much of his analysis too simplistic and reliant on accepted conventional wisdom (Belichick/Brady good, everyone else not as good...). Plus, he’s a Red Sox/Patriots fan. OK, fine, I hate Peter King. There, I said it.
My two bones to pick with Peter King are:
1. This week’s edition has a new feature, called the “MVP Watch.” King, an MVP voter, explains the ground-rules for this section of his column as how he would rank his top five MVP candidates, if he “had to fill [the ballot] out that day. Could be pretty malleable from week to week.”
King then lists Drew Brees as his first choice for MVP, followed by Peyton Manning, LaDanian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, and Brian Urlacher. Four of these names seem alright to me, but the fifth...
-Katrina-insprired sentimentality aside, Brees is having a fantastic season for the New Orleans and has brought stability to the QB position for a team that has had one bad QB after another. While I’m not entirely certain that Brees should be the MVP, I certainly have no issue with him being ranked among the list of favorites.
-Peyton Manning is Peyton Manning. He’s the most gifted player at his position in the NFL right now and will end his career as the most prolific passer in league history. His career arc is following that of Dan Marino’s and, if Peyton can ever pull it off, a Super Bowl ring would put him up in the John Elway stratosphere as perhaps the greatest to ever play the position. Peyton’s having a typically great season. I’m not sure he’s done anything to warrant an MVP in 2006 but he’s certainly not doing anything to not warrant it, either.
-LaDanian Tomlinson. This is my choice. He’s en route to shattering the single-season record for total touchdowns in a season, set only the year before by 2005 MVP Shaun Alexander. With 24 through 11 games, Tomlinson needs only four more to tie and five more to set the record. In addition to being the perfect offensive weapon on the NFL’s best team (that’s my opinion, at least), he’s shouldering the responsibility of playing big while the team breaks in a rookie QB and plays without Shawne Merriman, the NFL’s best individual defensive player (again, my opinion). In other words, Tomlinson has the stats and he has the leadership credentials.
-Larry Johnson is a great RB on a rising team. He belongs on the list but isn’t quite as good as Tomlinson. I’ll leave it alone.
-Brian Urlacher. Here is where I have a problem. A top five MVP consideration? Peter King thinks this guy is underrated? That’s ridiculous. He’s a very good player, one of the best at his position in the NFL. But he’s certainly not underrated. He plays behind arguably the best, most physical front four in the NFL so it’s not as though he’s doing all the heavy lifting on that defense. Furthermore, if Peter King was watching the Bears-Patriots game, I’m not sure how he missed the not-exactly fleet of foot Tom Brady juke past Urlacher to convert a critical first down. If you’re voting for MVP’s the morning after your “underrated” player swings and misses in the open field, I think you need your head examined, especially after calling Baltimore Ravens linebacker Adalius Thomas one of the best defensive players in the NFL six paragraphs earlier. If you want to vote for a defensive player as MVP, how do you put him over Urlacher?
2. My second argument against King arises out of his “Stat of the Week” section. In this section, he blames the Giants loss in Jacksonville on Tom Coughlin’s game plan, saying that it was “absolutely wrong” for Tiki Barber to carry the ball only five times in the first half and 10 times for the game (for a total of 27 yards). He then draws the analogy to a slugger swinging and missing on the first two pitches of what will become a five at-bat day. King justifies his contention by citing nine other running backs who had 30 or fewer yards after 10 carries and went on to finish the day at over 100 yards.
It would please Mr. King to note that of the nine instances he cites (against eight opponents, as the Saints were victimized twice), I have found the following statistics on the offending rush defenses:
Rams:
Ranked 32/32 in total rushing yards allowed;
Ranked 32/32 in rushing yards per carry;
Ranked 32/32 in rushing yards per game
Panthers:
Ranked 14/32 in total rushing yards allowed;
Ranked 15/32 in rushing yards per carry;
Ranked 14/32 in rushing yards per game
Raiders:
Ranked 24/32 in total rushing yards allowed;
Ranked 18/32 in rushing yards per carry;
Ranked 24/32 in rushing yards per game
Saints:
Ranked 29/32 in total rushing yards allowed;
Ranked 31/32 in rushing yards per carry;
Ranked 29/32 in rushing yards per game
Titans:
Ranked 32/32 in total rushing yards allowed;
Ranked 32/32 in rushing yards per carry;
Ranked 32/32 in rushing yards per game
Browns:
Ranked 25/32 in total rushing yards allowed;
Ranked 27/32 in rushing yards per carry;
Ranked 25/32 in rushing yards per game
Dolphins:
Ranked 6/32 in total rushing yards allowed;
Ranked 3/32 in rushing yards per carry;
Ranked 6/32 in rushing yards per game
49ers:
Ranked 18/32 in total rushing yards allowed;
Ranked 23/32 in rushing yards per carry;
Ranked 17/32 in rushing yards per game
For comparison’s sake, the Jaguars rankings in those three categories are 5/32, 5/32, and 5/32. Clearly, of the eight teams King lists, only one – the Dolphins – rank in the top 33% of NFL rushing defenses. So, then, how stupid was Coughlin’s decision to feature a game-plan that avoided a heavy dose of Tiki Barber against the NFL’s fifth-best defense against the run? Very stupid? Not so stupid?
The bottom line is that teams need to be able to run the ball and stop the run to be successful in the NFL. But on a game-to-game basis, that formula may not always work. It seems to me that Peter King didn’t do his research, otherwise he’d probably come to the same conclusion as Tom Coughlin; running against Jacksonville is the quickest way to going nowhere.
My two bones to pick with Peter King are:
1. This week’s edition has a new feature, called the “MVP Watch.” King, an MVP voter, explains the ground-rules for this section of his column as how he would rank his top five MVP candidates, if he “had to fill [the ballot] out that day. Could be pretty malleable from week to week.”
King then lists Drew Brees as his first choice for MVP, followed by Peyton Manning, LaDanian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, and Brian Urlacher. Four of these names seem alright to me, but the fifth...
-Katrina-insprired sentimentality aside, Brees is having a fantastic season for the New Orleans and has brought stability to the QB position for a team that has had one bad QB after another. While I’m not entirely certain that Brees should be the MVP, I certainly have no issue with him being ranked among the list of favorites.
-Peyton Manning is Peyton Manning. He’s the most gifted player at his position in the NFL right now and will end his career as the most prolific passer in league history. His career arc is following that of Dan Marino’s and, if Peyton can ever pull it off, a Super Bowl ring would put him up in the John Elway stratosphere as perhaps the greatest to ever play the position. Peyton’s having a typically great season. I’m not sure he’s done anything to warrant an MVP in 2006 but he’s certainly not doing anything to not warrant it, either.
-LaDanian Tomlinson. This is my choice. He’s en route to shattering the single-season record for total touchdowns in a season, set only the year before by 2005 MVP Shaun Alexander. With 24 through 11 games, Tomlinson needs only four more to tie and five more to set the record. In addition to being the perfect offensive weapon on the NFL’s best team (that’s my opinion, at least), he’s shouldering the responsibility of playing big while the team breaks in a rookie QB and plays without Shawne Merriman, the NFL’s best individual defensive player (again, my opinion). In other words, Tomlinson has the stats and he has the leadership credentials.
-Larry Johnson is a great RB on a rising team. He belongs on the list but isn’t quite as good as Tomlinson. I’ll leave it alone.
-Brian Urlacher. Here is where I have a problem. A top five MVP consideration? Peter King thinks this guy is underrated? That’s ridiculous. He’s a very good player, one of the best at his position in the NFL. But he’s certainly not underrated. He plays behind arguably the best, most physical front four in the NFL so it’s not as though he’s doing all the heavy lifting on that defense. Furthermore, if Peter King was watching the Bears-Patriots game, I’m not sure how he missed the not-exactly fleet of foot Tom Brady juke past Urlacher to convert a critical first down. If you’re voting for MVP’s the morning after your “underrated” player swings and misses in the open field, I think you need your head examined, especially after calling Baltimore Ravens linebacker Adalius Thomas one of the best defensive players in the NFL six paragraphs earlier. If you want to vote for a defensive player as MVP, how do you put him over Urlacher?
2. My second argument against King arises out of his “Stat of the Week” section. In this section, he blames the Giants loss in Jacksonville on Tom Coughlin’s game plan, saying that it was “absolutely wrong” for Tiki Barber to carry the ball only five times in the first half and 10 times for the game (for a total of 27 yards). He then draws the analogy to a slugger swinging and missing on the first two pitches of what will become a five at-bat day. King justifies his contention by citing nine other running backs who had 30 or fewer yards after 10 carries and went on to finish the day at over 100 yards.
It would please Mr. King to note that of the nine instances he cites (against eight opponents, as the Saints were victimized twice), I have found the following statistics on the offending rush defenses:
Rams:
Ranked 32/32 in total rushing yards allowed;
Ranked 32/32 in rushing yards per carry;
Ranked 32/32 in rushing yards per game
Panthers:
Ranked 14/32 in total rushing yards allowed;
Ranked 15/32 in rushing yards per carry;
Ranked 14/32 in rushing yards per game
Raiders:
Ranked 24/32 in total rushing yards allowed;
Ranked 18/32 in rushing yards per carry;
Ranked 24/32 in rushing yards per game
Saints:
Ranked 29/32 in total rushing yards allowed;
Ranked 31/32 in rushing yards per carry;
Ranked 29/32 in rushing yards per game
Titans:
Ranked 32/32 in total rushing yards allowed;
Ranked 32/32 in rushing yards per carry;
Ranked 32/32 in rushing yards per game
Browns:
Ranked 25/32 in total rushing yards allowed;
Ranked 27/32 in rushing yards per carry;
Ranked 25/32 in rushing yards per game
Dolphins:
Ranked 6/32 in total rushing yards allowed;
Ranked 3/32 in rushing yards per carry;
Ranked 6/32 in rushing yards per game
49ers:
Ranked 18/32 in total rushing yards allowed;
Ranked 23/32 in rushing yards per carry;
Ranked 17/32 in rushing yards per game
For comparison’s sake, the Jaguars rankings in those three categories are 5/32, 5/32, and 5/32. Clearly, of the eight teams King lists, only one – the Dolphins – rank in the top 33% of NFL rushing defenses. So, then, how stupid was Coughlin’s decision to feature a game-plan that avoided a heavy dose of Tiki Barber against the NFL’s fifth-best defense against the run? Very stupid? Not so stupid?
The bottom line is that teams need to be able to run the ball and stop the run to be successful in the NFL. But on a game-to-game basis, that formula may not always work. It seems to me that Peter King didn’t do his research, otherwise he’d probably come to the same conclusion as Tom Coughlin; running against Jacksonville is the quickest way to going nowhere.
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