Note: My apologies in advance for the length of this column. It has taken a week to write and is the most comprehensive baseball article I have written for BSD since March. This hasn’t been my most prolific year but I’m trying to gear up for the many storylines that come with the fast-approaching end to the baseball season. 2,245 words later, and without further ado…
A: A-Rod for AL MVP. In any other year, Magglio Ordonez would be counting his MVP award bonus money right about now. After all, he’s got a batting line of .356/.428/.586/1.014 (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS) to go with his league-leading 49 2B, 27 HR, and 132 RBI. Winning a batting title while putting together a season that makes you the third least-replaceable player in all of baseball? That’s a great season. But A-Rod’s leading the majors in HR (52), RBI (142), R (134), OPS (1.062) and is tops in VORP by a wide margin. He’s the game’s best player in 2007 and the Yanks might not be in the playoff race without his magical season.
B: Braves fizzle. Since the All-Star Break, the Braves have gone 32-31, including an inexplicable 6-10 against the Reds, Astros, and Giants, whose combined winning percentage is .445. Playing .375 baseball against teams winning less than 45% of their games is the fastest way to play yourself out of the race. Of course, the NL being what it is, the Braves are only five and a half games out of the Wild Card. Even still, when the Braves traded for Mark Teixeira it seemed like the division title was within their grasp. Teixeira’s done his part, hitting .333/.419/.596/1.015 with 12 HR/43 RBI in 44 games.
C: Colorado’s surprising summer. Most preseason predictions had the Rockies finishing at or near the bottom of the NL West. And while that might still happen – they’re in 3rd place in the game’s most competitive division – they cannot be overlooked as one of the game’s most pleasant surprises. The Rockies spent the summer months (June 1st-August 31st) compiling a 44-36 record (.550), including a 5-1 record against the Yankees and Red Sox. To be honest, I haven’t followed the Rockies enough to know which of their pitchers deserve credit. But I know two things for sure: Matt Holliday is the best everyday outfielder in Major League Baseball and a bonafide NL MVP candidate (more on that later) and Troy Tulowitzki would be the NL Rookie of the Year if not for Milwaukee’s Ryan Braun.
D: Diamondbacks surging. Just like their NL West brethren in Colorado, the D-Backs propelled themselves into contention by playing their best baseball after the All-Star Break. Heading into the Midsummer Classic, Arizona was just 1-7 in July. By the time July was over, they had gone 12-6 to even their record to 13-13. That hot finish continued into August and September, as the D-Backs have gone a combined 27-18 since August 1st, giving them a .619 winning percentage in the second half. As of this writing, they are in first place in their division and in line for their first playoff berth since they won the World Series in 2001. It is worth noting, however, that they’ve been baseball’s biggest overachievers, outpacing their Pythagorean Wins by an incredible 12.39 victories. In short, they should be a sub-.500 team but, as they saying goes, that’s why they play the games.
G: Granderson’s roaring 20’s. What a season by Curtis Granderson! He joined Willie Mays (1957) and Frank “Wildfire” Schulte (1911) in the exclusive 20 (2B)/20 (3B)/20 (HR)/20 (SB) club. Maybe others don’t find this as cool as I do but I am amazed that there is a club as exclusive as this. Only three players to accomplish something in over 100 years of recorded baseballs stats? That’s pretty cool to me.
H: Holliday for NL MVP. A week ago when I started this column, my NL MVP was David Wright of the New York Mets. He was quietly having an incredible season on a team that had withstood a challenge in the standings and was leading his team to the playoffs. A week later, the Mets are a mess and Matt Holliday has completed what has to be one of the best stretches of games I’ve ever witnessed. Since September 1st, Holliday is batting .382/.443/.926/1.370 with 11 HR, 23 RBI, and 21 R in 18 games. Overall, he is at .340/.402/.612/1.014 with 35 HR, 128 RBI, 111 R, and 11 SB and ranks first in AVG and RBI, second in SLG, third in OPS, and fourth in R and HR. In short, he’s leading or in the top five in every major offensive statistical category, his team is a surprise contender in the NL Wildcard, he’s having a crazy September (when MVP’s are made) and he is now the fourth least-replaceable player in the NL. Before anyone tells me that Hanley Ramirez, David Wright, or Chipper Jones deserve the MVP based on their higher VORP ranking, please remember that the aforementioned three play high-leverage defensive positions in the infield. To have an everyday outfielder ranked this high and within mere percentage points of three defensive infielders should give you a glimpse into irreplaceable Holliday’s bat has been. He’s in playoff contention and he’s the best player at his position in the game. He’s my NL MVP.
K: Kansas City Royals alive! So they’re still 20 games under .500 and they’ll be missing the playoffs for the 22nd consecutive year. The bright side is that they played nearly .500 baseball from July 1st to August 31st, going 26-27 in a span of 53 games which included 25 games against the Yankees, Red Sox, Indians, Tigers, and Mariners. Preseason AL Rookie of the Year favorite Alex Gordon won’t win the award, but the 2006 Minor League Player of the Year showed that, after a slow start, he belongs in the big leagues. Case in point: his second half batting line of .292/.326/.532/.858 was a major improvement over the first half .232/.321/.358/.679. Royals fans should feel good about Alex Gordon next year. The bottom line is that although their owner still stinks, their GM (Dayton Moore) is a bright guy and the team still has something to play for. With a decent showing, they have a chance to push the White Sox into last place in the season’s final week. We should all root for that.
M: Managers of the Year. Picking the AL and NL Managers of the Year is really tough for me. I’m conditioned to believe that most of today’s managers do a lousy job, preferring a “paint by numbers” approach which might leave you with a pretty picture but requires no thought or creativity and leaves you in a bind when you inevitably make a mistake. Beyond that, this is an especially difficult group to handicap. In the AL, my finalists are Eric Wedge (Cle) and Mike Scioscia (LAA). Although there are arguments for (and against) both, I’m going with Eric Wedge, simply because the Indians and Tigers were fighting a legitimate battle for control over the AL Central. The Angels, by contrast, put away a Mariners team that was playing way over its head in the first half and properly faded in August and September when their true pretender status was revealed. In the NL, it’s even more complicated. Lou Piniella (ChC), Bud Black (SDP), Bob Melvin (AZ), Clint Hurdle (Col), and Ned Yost (Mil) all deserve recognition for putting their teams in a position to make the playoffs. My finalists are Bob Melvin and Clint Hurdle, both of whom have guided teams that weren’t supposed to contend for the playoffs in 2007. Because Melvin and the D-Backs seem to have the inside track on the postseason, I’m going to have to give him my vote.
N: NL Central. What can I say about this division? It’s incredible to me that the Chicago Cubs have not yet seized the many opportunities the Milwaukee Brewers have given them to finally put away this division. The Cubs are the clearly superior team, boasting the division’s best pitching staff (652 runs allowed, 2nd fewest in NL). Since the All-Star Break, the Brewers have gone 29-34 to the Cubs’ 36-30, a five and a half game difference in the standings. So why can’t the Cubs just put the Brewers away? Part of the reason goes back to the month of August. While the Brewers were busy going 9-18 (.333), the Cubs followed up their 34-20 (.630) stretch in June/July by going just 12-16 (.429) in August. In short, the Cubs were peaking at just the right time and then totally collapsed when the division was within their grasp. Now both teams are playing .600-caliber ball and it looks as though the NL Central will be decided in the season’s final week. I’m predicting the Cubs pull it out, only because the Brewers suck a little bit more than Chicago.
O: Ozzie Guillen’s reward? It’s no secret that I consider Ozzie Guillen to be one of the five most despicable people in all of baseball. There aren’t too many managers that can hog all the credit for a team’s improbable run to a World Series title and then totally absolve themselves of all the blame when the ship starts to leak. Toss in his love of berating his own players in public, insulting players and writers with racist and homophobic epithets, and his attention-seeking outbursts in the dugout and what you have is a Grade-A asshole. I’ve listed him here because I’m dying to know how such a lousy human being can get a contract extension in the midst of the team’s worst season since 1989 despite the fact that the core of the 2005 World Series team is still intact. How can you reward a season of ineptitude like this? Ozzie still had two years left on his deal so it’s not like he was even in lame-duck status for next year. What, the White Sox were worried that suitors would be lining up around the block to try and sign Ozzie after turning in a cellar-dwelling performance? Nonsense.
P: Playoff picture. The AL playoff picture is pretty clear, with the Angels, Indians, Yankees, and Red Sox all but assured of qualifying for October. The only open questions in the AL are if the Yanks will take over the AL East and what the match-ups will be in the ALDS. If the season ended today, the ALDS would be Cleveland (1) vs. New York (4) and Anaheim (2) vs. Boston (3). The real question mark is the health of Manny Ramirez. If Manny, who hasn’t played since August 28th, can get back in time to regain his timing, a Boston-Anaheim series could be a tense affair. Without Manny, I give the Red Sox no hope of beating Anaheim and the Angels would qualify for their third ALCS in six seasons. A Yanks-Indians ALDS? Come on, take a guess who I’m going with. Over in the NL, things are far muddier (what else is new, the NL stinks). Again, if the playoffs were to start today, the NLDS would be Arizona (1) vs. Chicago (3) and New York (2) vs. San Diego (4). The Cubs are one of those teams where it wouldn’t surprise you if they won the World Series or if they got swept in the first round. For whatever reason, I see the Cubs pulling it together and getting into the NLCS. In the other series, I just have no confidence in the Mets right now, even with Pedro Martinez coming back and showing why he’s one of his generation’s best pitchers. Padres it is. The LCS breakdown: Angels over Yanks/Padres over Cubs. Angels take down their second crown of the decade.
R: Rookies of the Year. The NL Rookie of the Year is a no-brainer. Milwaukee’s Ryan Braun has played 101 games since being called up to the big leagues on May 25th. In that time, he has gone .323/.370/.637/1.007 with 31 HR, 85 RBI, 80 R, and 14 SB. He is by no means a slick defensive player at third base but he’s improving. Troy Tulowitzki (.293, 21 HR, stellar defense) will take the silver medal but it’s not even close. I am at a total loss over in the AL Rookie of the Year race. I suppose it will be Red Sox 2B Dustin Pedroia, although his offensive stats are only slightly better than what you’d expect of a 1980’s era middle infielder: .318/.381/.436/.817 with 7 HR and 49 RBI. Hardly inspiring but I guess the real young talent is over in the NL right now.
Y: Cy Young Awards. Again, the NL is a no-brainer, as Jake Peavy should win his first Cy Young in a landslide. The Padres ace is in line to win the NL pitching Triple Crown by leading the league in wins (18), strikeouts (225) and ERA (2.39) as of this writing. You can’t do much more than that. Over in the AL, it’s a two-horse race between Boston’s Josh Beckett and Cleveland’s CC Sabathia. ESPN’s Cy Young Predictor has Sabathia ahead by a few points but I have a feeling that Beckett and Sabathia will be trading stats until the very last game. Sabathia leads the AL in innings, is tied for second in wins, fourth in strikeouts, and sixth in ERA. By contrast, Beckett leads the AL in wins, seventh in ERA, and eighth in strikeouts. Unfortunately, the voters that decide baseball’s awards have often voted for the Cy Young Award winner based on win totals which would give Beckett a slight edge at this point as he goes for the “magic” number of 20 wins this weekend vs. Tampa Bay. I don’t know who will win, but I know CC Sabathia deserves to win.
A: A-Rod for AL MVP. In any other year, Magglio Ordonez would be counting his MVP award bonus money right about now. After all, he’s got a batting line of .356/.428/.586/1.014 (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS) to go with his league-leading 49 2B, 27 HR, and 132 RBI. Winning a batting title while putting together a season that makes you the third least-replaceable player in all of baseball? That’s a great season. But A-Rod’s leading the majors in HR (52), RBI (142), R (134), OPS (1.062) and is tops in VORP by a wide margin. He’s the game’s best player in 2007 and the Yanks might not be in the playoff race without his magical season.
B: Braves fizzle. Since the All-Star Break, the Braves have gone 32-31, including an inexplicable 6-10 against the Reds, Astros, and Giants, whose combined winning percentage is .445. Playing .375 baseball against teams winning less than 45% of their games is the fastest way to play yourself out of the race. Of course, the NL being what it is, the Braves are only five and a half games out of the Wild Card. Even still, when the Braves traded for Mark Teixeira it seemed like the division title was within their grasp. Teixeira’s done his part, hitting .333/.419/.596/1.015 with 12 HR/43 RBI in 44 games.
C: Colorado’s surprising summer. Most preseason predictions had the Rockies finishing at or near the bottom of the NL West. And while that might still happen – they’re in 3rd place in the game’s most competitive division – they cannot be overlooked as one of the game’s most pleasant surprises. The Rockies spent the summer months (June 1st-August 31st) compiling a 44-36 record (.550), including a 5-1 record against the Yankees and Red Sox. To be honest, I haven’t followed the Rockies enough to know which of their pitchers deserve credit. But I know two things for sure: Matt Holliday is the best everyday outfielder in Major League Baseball and a bonafide NL MVP candidate (more on that later) and Troy Tulowitzki would be the NL Rookie of the Year if not for Milwaukee’s Ryan Braun.
D: Diamondbacks surging. Just like their NL West brethren in Colorado, the D-Backs propelled themselves into contention by playing their best baseball after the All-Star Break. Heading into the Midsummer Classic, Arizona was just 1-7 in July. By the time July was over, they had gone 12-6 to even their record to 13-13. That hot finish continued into August and September, as the D-Backs have gone a combined 27-18 since August 1st, giving them a .619 winning percentage in the second half. As of this writing, they are in first place in their division and in line for their first playoff berth since they won the World Series in 2001. It is worth noting, however, that they’ve been baseball’s biggest overachievers, outpacing their Pythagorean Wins by an incredible 12.39 victories. In short, they should be a sub-.500 team but, as they saying goes, that’s why they play the games.
G: Granderson’s roaring 20’s. What a season by Curtis Granderson! He joined Willie Mays (1957) and Frank “Wildfire” Schulte (1911) in the exclusive 20 (2B)/20 (3B)/20 (HR)/20 (SB) club. Maybe others don’t find this as cool as I do but I am amazed that there is a club as exclusive as this. Only three players to accomplish something in over 100 years of recorded baseballs stats? That’s pretty cool to me.
H: Holliday for NL MVP. A week ago when I started this column, my NL MVP was David Wright of the New York Mets. He was quietly having an incredible season on a team that had withstood a challenge in the standings and was leading his team to the playoffs. A week later, the Mets are a mess and Matt Holliday has completed what has to be one of the best stretches of games I’ve ever witnessed. Since September 1st, Holliday is batting .382/.443/.926/1.370 with 11 HR, 23 RBI, and 21 R in 18 games. Overall, he is at .340/.402/.612/1.014 with 35 HR, 128 RBI, 111 R, and 11 SB and ranks first in AVG and RBI, second in SLG, third in OPS, and fourth in R and HR. In short, he’s leading or in the top five in every major offensive statistical category, his team is a surprise contender in the NL Wildcard, he’s having a crazy September (when MVP’s are made) and he is now the fourth least-replaceable player in the NL. Before anyone tells me that Hanley Ramirez, David Wright, or Chipper Jones deserve the MVP based on their higher VORP ranking, please remember that the aforementioned three play high-leverage defensive positions in the infield. To have an everyday outfielder ranked this high and within mere percentage points of three defensive infielders should give you a glimpse into irreplaceable Holliday’s bat has been. He’s in playoff contention and he’s the best player at his position in the game. He’s my NL MVP.
K: Kansas City Royals alive! So they’re still 20 games under .500 and they’ll be missing the playoffs for the 22nd consecutive year. The bright side is that they played nearly .500 baseball from July 1st to August 31st, going 26-27 in a span of 53 games which included 25 games against the Yankees, Red Sox, Indians, Tigers, and Mariners. Preseason AL Rookie of the Year favorite Alex Gordon won’t win the award, but the 2006 Minor League Player of the Year showed that, after a slow start, he belongs in the big leagues. Case in point: his second half batting line of .292/.326/.532/.858 was a major improvement over the first half .232/.321/.358/.679. Royals fans should feel good about Alex Gordon next year. The bottom line is that although their owner still stinks, their GM (Dayton Moore) is a bright guy and the team still has something to play for. With a decent showing, they have a chance to push the White Sox into last place in the season’s final week. We should all root for that.
M: Managers of the Year. Picking the AL and NL Managers of the Year is really tough for me. I’m conditioned to believe that most of today’s managers do a lousy job, preferring a “paint by numbers” approach which might leave you with a pretty picture but requires no thought or creativity and leaves you in a bind when you inevitably make a mistake. Beyond that, this is an especially difficult group to handicap. In the AL, my finalists are Eric Wedge (Cle) and Mike Scioscia (LAA). Although there are arguments for (and against) both, I’m going with Eric Wedge, simply because the Indians and Tigers were fighting a legitimate battle for control over the AL Central. The Angels, by contrast, put away a Mariners team that was playing way over its head in the first half and properly faded in August and September when their true pretender status was revealed. In the NL, it’s even more complicated. Lou Piniella (ChC), Bud Black (SDP), Bob Melvin (AZ), Clint Hurdle (Col), and Ned Yost (Mil) all deserve recognition for putting their teams in a position to make the playoffs. My finalists are Bob Melvin and Clint Hurdle, both of whom have guided teams that weren’t supposed to contend for the playoffs in 2007. Because Melvin and the D-Backs seem to have the inside track on the postseason, I’m going to have to give him my vote.
N: NL Central. What can I say about this division? It’s incredible to me that the Chicago Cubs have not yet seized the many opportunities the Milwaukee Brewers have given them to finally put away this division. The Cubs are the clearly superior team, boasting the division’s best pitching staff (652 runs allowed, 2nd fewest in NL). Since the All-Star Break, the Brewers have gone 29-34 to the Cubs’ 36-30, a five and a half game difference in the standings. So why can’t the Cubs just put the Brewers away? Part of the reason goes back to the month of August. While the Brewers were busy going 9-18 (.333), the Cubs followed up their 34-20 (.630) stretch in June/July by going just 12-16 (.429) in August. In short, the Cubs were peaking at just the right time and then totally collapsed when the division was within their grasp. Now both teams are playing .600-caliber ball and it looks as though the NL Central will be decided in the season’s final week. I’m predicting the Cubs pull it out, only because the Brewers suck a little bit more than Chicago.
O: Ozzie Guillen’s reward? It’s no secret that I consider Ozzie Guillen to be one of the five most despicable people in all of baseball. There aren’t too many managers that can hog all the credit for a team’s improbable run to a World Series title and then totally absolve themselves of all the blame when the ship starts to leak. Toss in his love of berating his own players in public, insulting players and writers with racist and homophobic epithets, and his attention-seeking outbursts in the dugout and what you have is a Grade-A asshole. I’ve listed him here because I’m dying to know how such a lousy human being can get a contract extension in the midst of the team’s worst season since 1989 despite the fact that the core of the 2005 World Series team is still intact. How can you reward a season of ineptitude like this? Ozzie still had two years left on his deal so it’s not like he was even in lame-duck status for next year. What, the White Sox were worried that suitors would be lining up around the block to try and sign Ozzie after turning in a cellar-dwelling performance? Nonsense.
P: Playoff picture. The AL playoff picture is pretty clear, with the Angels, Indians, Yankees, and Red Sox all but assured of qualifying for October. The only open questions in the AL are if the Yanks will take over the AL East and what the match-ups will be in the ALDS. If the season ended today, the ALDS would be Cleveland (1) vs. New York (4) and Anaheim (2) vs. Boston (3). The real question mark is the health of Manny Ramirez. If Manny, who hasn’t played since August 28th, can get back in time to regain his timing, a Boston-Anaheim series could be a tense affair. Without Manny, I give the Red Sox no hope of beating Anaheim and the Angels would qualify for their third ALCS in six seasons. A Yanks-Indians ALDS? Come on, take a guess who I’m going with. Over in the NL, things are far muddier (what else is new, the NL stinks). Again, if the playoffs were to start today, the NLDS would be Arizona (1) vs. Chicago (3) and New York (2) vs. San Diego (4). The Cubs are one of those teams where it wouldn’t surprise you if they won the World Series or if they got swept in the first round. For whatever reason, I see the Cubs pulling it together and getting into the NLCS. In the other series, I just have no confidence in the Mets right now, even with Pedro Martinez coming back and showing why he’s one of his generation’s best pitchers. Padres it is. The LCS breakdown: Angels over Yanks/Padres over Cubs. Angels take down their second crown of the decade.
R: Rookies of the Year. The NL Rookie of the Year is a no-brainer. Milwaukee’s Ryan Braun has played 101 games since being called up to the big leagues on May 25th. In that time, he has gone .323/.370/.637/1.007 with 31 HR, 85 RBI, 80 R, and 14 SB. He is by no means a slick defensive player at third base but he’s improving. Troy Tulowitzki (.293, 21 HR, stellar defense) will take the silver medal but it’s not even close. I am at a total loss over in the AL Rookie of the Year race. I suppose it will be Red Sox 2B Dustin Pedroia, although his offensive stats are only slightly better than what you’d expect of a 1980’s era middle infielder: .318/.381/.436/.817 with 7 HR and 49 RBI. Hardly inspiring but I guess the real young talent is over in the NL right now.
Y: Cy Young Awards. Again, the NL is a no-brainer, as Jake Peavy should win his first Cy Young in a landslide. The Padres ace is in line to win the NL pitching Triple Crown by leading the league in wins (18), strikeouts (225) and ERA (2.39) as of this writing. You can’t do much more than that. Over in the AL, it’s a two-horse race between Boston’s Josh Beckett and Cleveland’s CC Sabathia. ESPN’s Cy Young Predictor has Sabathia ahead by a few points but I have a feeling that Beckett and Sabathia will be trading stats until the very last game. Sabathia leads the AL in innings, is tied for second in wins, fourth in strikeouts, and sixth in ERA. By contrast, Beckett leads the AL in wins, seventh in ERA, and eighth in strikeouts. Unfortunately, the voters that decide baseball’s awards have often voted for the Cy Young Award winner based on win totals which would give Beckett a slight edge at this point as he goes for the “magic” number of 20 wins this weekend vs. Tampa Bay. I don’t know who will win, but I know CC Sabathia deserves to win.
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