Hot Stove Part V / Beckett Fallout & Next Moves

Much to discuss in this Hot Stove report. The fallout of last night's Beckett trade will be felt across baseball. Obviously the AL East race has been affected - the Yanks and Red Sox tied for 95 wins in 2005 - and now Boston should have a slight edge over the Yanks in the pitching department, assuming Curt Schilling's health (not an easy assumption but one I'm willing to make).

Fallout:

There are several ways to view the Mike Lowell thing in the AL East context. One way is to say that Boston is willing to eat $18M over two years in order to get Beckett. Another way is to say that Boston believes that Lowell, despite a too-high price tag, might still rebound and become a productive player again. His splits vs. LHP and RHP do show me something interesting. Despite hitting .236 with 8 HR and 58 RBI (down from .293/27/85 in 2004), Lowell did hit .304 against lefty pitching, with an OPS of .840. Contrast that to .221 and .617 vs. RHP and a case can be made that even if he is washed up as an everyday player, he can still hit lefties and can platoon at 3rd base with Kevin Youkilis or someone else. Of course paying $9M to a platoon player is unreasonable and foolish but the possibility remains that a hitter's park might re-energize Lowell. There even remains the possibility that 2005 was an aberration and that Mike Lowell isn't washed up at all. Then again, it's equally possible that he is completely washed up and that the 2006 Lowell is as much of a drain on the Red Sox as the 2005 Lowell was on the Marlins. Mike Lowell is the big wildcard here - he could be great, he could be awful or he could be just OK. If great, the Red Sox replace Mueller with Lowell and don't miss a beat, plus get better defensively. If awful, the Red Sox can't add a player in July since no one will take Lowell in a trade with that contract. If OK, the Red Sox have gotten deeper with a part-time player that can play 1st, 3rd and DH who can hit lefties.

This trade also has ramifications for the NL East. In 2005, the NL East was baseball's best division, where only nine games separated first (Atlanta) from last (Washington). All four NL East runner-ups (Phillies, Marlins, Mets, Nationals) were in the Wild Card chase until the last few days of the season. Now that's about to change. The Marlins should be written off as a last place team with permanent ink. They will go into 2006 with Dontrelle Willis, Brian Moehler and Jason Vargas as their remaining starters and the latter two combined for an 11-17 record in 35 starts. Not good. If Carlos Delgado is traded (to Boston, potentially), they will have only one player (Miguel Cabrera) who hit more than 16 homers, drove in more than 76 RBI and had an OPS over .796. That is not a very promising lineup for 2006. Basically, count on the Marlins to lose over 90 games and be a creampuff on everyone's schedule.

Next Moves:

I think several more trades and signings will happen. I think Delgado will be traded to one of the Mets, Red Sox or Dodgers. Delgado has $48M left over three years so he's definitely going to a big market. I think the Yanks will go hard and fast after Kyle Farnsworth of Atlanta and insert him into the 8th inning setup role for Tom Gordon. I think the Mets and Billy Wagner will agree to a contract and the Mets will be considered favorites for the 2006 Wild Card. I think the Yanks will trade Carl Pavano, Eric Duncan, Kevin Thompson (minor league prospects) and cash to the Seattle Mariners for Ichiro Suzuki and Joel Piniero. I think the Rangers will push Blalock out the door for pitching.

The winter meetings are being held in Dallas, TX from 12/2 to 12/5 and I know several people who will be attending. I hope to get first-hand reports from my friends so I can continue to post my Hot Stove reports.