Wednesday, November 23, 2005

Hot Stove Part VII / Carlos Delgado & Mets

In keeping with the Marlins theme, the Mets acquired Carlos Delgado and $7M cash for Mike Jacobs and pitching prospect Yusmeiro Petit. As opposed to the Beckett/Lowell trade, this one actually makes some sense to me. The Marlins got rid of a $48M commitment over the next three years and brought in a young power hitting prospect in Jacobs and a very exciting pitching prospect in Petit.

In 2005, Petit 21 starts for AA-Binghamton and produced some very nice numbers: 9-3 W-L/ 117 2/3 IP/ 2.91 ERA/ 0.91 WHIP/ 130 K/ 9.9 K:9IP/ 7.2 K:BB. In fact, his stats show that he's produced at every level of the minors except for his late-season promotion to AAA late last summer. Having just turned 21 years old yesterday, Petit will likely start in AAA this season and should be a big part of the Marlins rotation come 2007 or 2008.

Jacobs is no slouch, as his minor league stats indicate. Before being called up to the Mets in mid-August, the kid had torn up AAA pitching with 25 HR in only 433 AB (17.32 HR:AB). Upon being called up, Jacobs hit 11 HR in 100 AB. Taking into consideration that Dolphins Stadium is an extreme pitcher's park, Jacobs should still be able to hit between 15-20 in his first full season in the majors.

For the Mets, they get the bonafide heart of the order hitter they desperately wanted to land before the 2005 season. And by getting the Marlins to agree to give up $7M in cash, the Mets are now on the hook for a little over $13.5M instead of $16M over the next three years. That $2.5M savings will go towards overpaying for Billy Wagner to the tune of $44M over 4 years. Should the Mets land Wagner, they should be considered the front-runner for the Wild Card, at the very least. Their lineup would be the second best in the division (after Philly):

SS Jose Reyes
CF Carlos Beltran
1B Carlos Delgado
3B David Wright
LF Cliff Floyd
RF Victor Diaz/Xavier Nady/Lastings Milledge (?)
C Ramon Castro/Ramon Hernandez (?)
2B Miguel Cairo/Alfonso Soriano (?)

By acquiring Delgado, the Mets can move on without exploring a trade for Manny Ramirez. The Red Sox are probably sorry they didn't talk to the Mets sooner because that effectively kills their shot at getting Milledge from the Mets. And, as I indicate above, the Mets are still in hot pursuit of Ramon Hernandez at catcher (Padres free agent) and Alfonso Soriano, who is arbitration-eligible. Should they acquire Soriano, they would consider batting him sixth and moving him to LF, moving Floyd to RF and using Nady and Diaz off the bench. Alternatively, they could keep him at 2B and retain their RF platoon. Either way, the Mets are not done dealing and should be totally re-made come April 2006. Minaya is a bold GM and he's doing his best to make Atlanta sweat.

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