I just wanted to recommend a neat little espn column(s) on the subject of how different plays/myths actually affect the propensity for a victory in the NFL.
Some truisms far from the truth
The articles (see sidebox for what turns out to be two columns) seperates out fact from fiction. Losing turnover battle (chance for losing 81%) is indeed a truism. A kick/punt return for a TD does not guarentee a win (only 42% chance). One of the more striking characteristic that jumps is the importance of a good rushing game (or conversely good rushing defense) Having a hundred yard rusher (75 %) and controlling the game clock (67%) are both signs of having a succesful ground game. I think one factor that is missing in the analysis is average field position. The importance of special teams in both returning punts or more importantly covering punts is often under-rated. Anyway give it a perusal
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