Saturday, November 26, 2005

Hot Stove Part X / Blue Jays & Mets Edition

Either I really like antagonizing the Hitman or there is just not as much baseball news coming out of the rest of the country. Either way, the Northeast has two more hot stove goodies on the fire:

1. The Blue Jays have reportedly offered BJ Ryan a five-year $47M contract. That would make BJ Ryan the highest paid closer in baseball. While I understand that Toronto would like to get back to playing varsity instead of the JV they've been playing the past several years, I don't understand how bidding against yourself for a player makes any sense. I don't know of any other offers for BJ Ryan. I also know that the Mets are offerning Billy Wagner, a more proven closer, a three-year $33M deal with an option for a fourth year.

Personally, I'd rather have Billy Wagner, but that's a different story. I am shocked that the Blue Jays would outbid the Mets for the second best free agent closer on the market. I just don't understand the logic. BJ Ryan's good but by no means unbeatable. A five year deal? For a closer with only one year experience at the position? What happens if Toronto's horrible again in two years? This is a bad business decision. I totally endorse Toronto's going after a closer but I think they're grossly overpaying for this guy.

2. The Mets have offered Anaheim's free agent catcher Bengie Molina a chance to play for the new Latin All-Stars, aka the New York Metropolitans. With Mike Piazza's impending move to Oakland (I don't know what Beane has up his sleeve with that old dude) and Ramon Castro firmly entrenched as one of the game's best backup catchers, the Mets are hot for Molina as their regular backstop. From what I understand, they'll be paying him somewhere in the range of $7-$9.5M a season. Now I don't want to be totally negative here but a simple look at Molina's stats should tell everyone that he'll be overpaid as he is underaccomplished.

Bengie Molina turned 31 shortly after the 2005 All-Star break. It is well-known that catchers begin to precipitously decline at the age of 32-33. Bengie Molina's career OBP is .309. His career OPS is .705. He has never caught more than 127 games in a season and I would expect that as he ages, he'll catch between 90-120 games a year. For a guy who doesn't carry a big stick, I'm not sure that Bengie Molina is quite the off-season "catch" that many think him to be. If he were five years younger, maybe the offense gets better. But for a guy who will blow out 32 candles in mid-July...I wouldn't give him any more than a three year deal with all the money up front.

Depsite the serious character issues surrounding Carlos Delgado, I think that the Mets can win their division with a Delgado/Wagner off-season. I think adding Molina will hurt the team in the long run. If the Mets should have a key injury during the 2006 season, they might not have the financial flexibility to add a player if they go overboard on Bengie's contract.

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