A few things I forgot to add in my earlier posting:
1. Joe Johnson: Are the Suns crazy? Is Bryan Colangelo, the 2005 NBA Executive of the Year, auditioning to replace Scott Layden in the Knicks’ front office hall of fame for most boneheaded moves in the shortest period of time? Why would you trade Joe Johnson, a rising star, a great shooter, the most money player on your team (before anyone gets mad, I didn’t say he’s better than Amare, just more money in crunch time, like a mini Robert Horry)? Had JJ not been hurt, the Suns might have beaten the Spurs in the Western Conference Finals.
Now JJ gets a $70M contract sign-and-trade to Atlanta in exchange for a bag of balls, a guy named Diaw and two lottery-protected first round draft picks. Considering how the Suns just botched the draft last month and in light of the fact that their other shooting guard (Q-dog) was traded to the Knicks, the Suns go into their Pacific Division title defense with a great trio of Nash-Amare-Marion, a good defender in Kurt Thomas and not a soul that can hit an open jumper from beyond 15 feet. I don’t see how this strategy will work for them. I’m reasonably sure that the Nuggets, Lakers and Timberwolves will be better this season so I don’t think I’m going out on a limb here by saying that the Suns aren’t guaranteed anything next year. There is a shot that they go back to 45 wins and miss the playoffs.
What I don’t get is why the Suns got cheap with this guy. In their estimation, the SG market was inflated and they didn’t like the idea of paying $70M when they’ve already got three players who are max or near max contract guys. They didn’t like what the Michael Redd signing ($90M) did to the market so they decided to stand on principal. Nonsense. Not only could they have locked JJ up to a $55M deal last off-season, the Suns should know better than principles don’t mean crap in business. If they should happen to go from the 60+ win level down to the 43-48 win level, it’ll be the 3rd straight year that their W/L varied by greater than 12-15 wins. That kind of variable performance is a lousy message to send to sponsors and season-ticket holders.
1. Joe Johnson: Are the Suns crazy? Is Bryan Colangelo, the 2005 NBA Executive of the Year, auditioning to replace Scott Layden in the Knicks’ front office hall of fame for most boneheaded moves in the shortest period of time? Why would you trade Joe Johnson, a rising star, a great shooter, the most money player on your team (before anyone gets mad, I didn’t say he’s better than Amare, just more money in crunch time, like a mini Robert Horry)? Had JJ not been hurt, the Suns might have beaten the Spurs in the Western Conference Finals.
Now JJ gets a $70M contract sign-and-trade to Atlanta in exchange for a bag of balls, a guy named Diaw and two lottery-protected first round draft picks. Considering how the Suns just botched the draft last month and in light of the fact that their other shooting guard (Q-dog) was traded to the Knicks, the Suns go into their Pacific Division title defense with a great trio of Nash-Amare-Marion, a good defender in Kurt Thomas and not a soul that can hit an open jumper from beyond 15 feet. I don’t see how this strategy will work for them. I’m reasonably sure that the Nuggets, Lakers and Timberwolves will be better this season so I don’t think I’m going out on a limb here by saying that the Suns aren’t guaranteed anything next year. There is a shot that they go back to 45 wins and miss the playoffs.
What I don’t get is why the Suns got cheap with this guy. In their estimation, the SG market was inflated and they didn’t like the idea of paying $70M when they’ve already got three players who are max or near max contract guys. They didn’t like what the Michael Redd signing ($90M) did to the market so they decided to stand on principal. Nonsense. Not only could they have locked JJ up to a $55M deal last off-season, the Suns should know better than principles don’t mean crap in business. If they should happen to go from the 60+ win level down to the 43-48 win level, it’ll be the 3rd straight year that their W/L varied by greater than 12-15 wins. That kind of variable performance is a lousy message to send to sponsors and season-ticket holders.
2. Shaq: The Miami Heat just gave the Big Unshapely a five-year $100M contract. While I fully agree that Shaq is an unstoppable force in the paint and is a great component for any team serious about winning a title, the Heat are nuts to give him a deal that expires when the Big Fatass turns 38 years old. If the last four seasons are any indication, Shaq is on a steady decline where, despite averages of 20 points and 10 rebounds, he cannot be counted on for more than 69 games per season. Why not front-load the deal? Shaq opted out of a guaranteed $30.6M in 2006 for the security of five more years. Why not give him $93M over three years ($31M per season)? Give the man a raise, make him feel good about himself but protect your downside by reducing the burden of the salary cap four years from now when Wade will be the best player in the NBA and Shaq will be getting the Patrick Ewing/Hakeem Olajuwon treatment – trades out of town to non-contenders just to ease the pain of paying a plodding non-producer. Obviously the Heat just had more success in 2005 than they expected so I don’t blame them for thinking short-term. After all, their season-ticket base doubled in the 30 minutes after the Shaq trade was announced last summer. But, like with the Suns, the business model is flawed. In the Big Blubber's case, the Heat paying a guy that won’t be worth anything in five years doesn’t make sense. Take the hit today and get it over with, don’t prolong the inevitable – if only General Motors and Ford would learn that too…
1 comment:
I'm behind on my blog readings, but i'll respond anyway...
You are dead-on with the Suns being worse next season. I'll still give them 45-50 wins, but nothing else. The weird thing is, Steve Nash in my estimation doesn't have much left in the tank (maybe 3 more years at high level). With that in mind, you'd almost think they would just break the bank, sign Joe Johnson, and go for the championship this season, then unload him next season when they sign Amare. The good thing is, they get two 1st round picks. The bad thing = they are lottery protected, meaning they can't use them until the Hawks get good! It's insane I tell you!
I think the Heat are just gunning for the championship, and completely realizing that Shaq will be worthless the last couple years. I think I'm okay with that, even though it's poor long-term planning.
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